Alliance Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[mazarin] 09/9/2015 23:37

Numis have nudged their target for APH marginally higher to 52p and 'notably' its well below current level and much lower than recent highs, see :
Despite this, I consider it's likely that APH may slip further over the next few days/weeks as 'recent arrivals' to the share may now decide to reconsider their position.

[mazarin] 09/9/2015 20:14

I think people have been expecting rather more during the run up to these results, so 'on the day' are disappointed, hence accounting for today's decline on the back of them. To be fair to the BoD they have actually said nothing to give rise (forgive the pun) or prompted the recent phenomenal rise. Generally gets a positive Press response, :

[rivaldo] 09/9/2015 07:45

A positive H1 overall, with confidence as to the year end outturn despite some currency headwinds, which is good to see.

ImmuCyst will be back in Q4, which will be a big boost for sentiment - I wonder how much compensation APH are going for?

Sounds like there are more acquisitions to come soon.

[mazarin] 09/9/2015 07:23

Interim Results post rather modest growth in both revenue and profits but announce 10% increase in dividend to 0.336p

[123prezzie] 04/9/2015 10:50

Note that Nigel Wray has reduced his holding from 40.2m shares directly held to 37.7m (15.5m direct plus 22.2m indirect). So, 2.5m shares have been absorbed/placed without affecting the price.

[pimpernel4] 17/8/2015 11:43

Clearly some top-slicing going on over the past week or so, but those larger buys returning today indicate a healthy appetite remains for APH shares at these levels.

[rivaldo] 17/8/2015 09:17

RNS - interims confirmed for 9th September (a day earlier than last year!).

Michael, thanks for post 611 above. I suspect your last paragraph is indeed the case as regards the rise in the share price, i.e simply that sellers have completed their disposals and prospects have brightened - plus the possibility of further (and larger) acquisitions.

[mazarin] 13/8/2015 15:36

Michael - Thanks for posting feed back on JD's Presentation. Incidentally, I totally agree with Cisk's summary of the present situation.

Its possible to gain some 'insight' into what 'managment' may know or don't know from transactions by conducted by Tony Booley (Sales & Marketing Director) and his wife who sold total 2.1 million APH shares on 23/06/15 @ av. 37p. Assuming that if he'd had the slightest inkling of any reason for the latest surge in the share price they would surely have postponed the decision 'to sell' for a few weeks longer. For the record see:

Had they sold last Monday, they would have been better off to the tune of £50,400 (£0.24 x 2.1million) unless timing was constrained by Financial regulations

[pimpernel4] 13/8/2015 14:42

My bad - thanks Michael.

[cisk] 13/8/2015 14:06

Pimpernel - Unfortunately I could not attend, it was Michael who attended...

[norbert colon] 13/8/2015 13:59

Thanks Michael for posting your notes - appreciated.

[pimpernel4] 13/8/2015 12:24

Thanks Cisk. Much appreciated feedback from someone there last night.

[cisk] 12/8/2015 21:44

Michael, many thanks for the excellent précis. It really chimes with my earlier posts as to what's behind the share price rise - i.e. no specific reason but a combination of favourable factors.

I've seen JD present - and had lengthy post-presentation conversations a handful of times and he's always refreshing, affable, to the point and cautiously optimistic.

I suspect the share price got ahead of itself a little; and suspect we'll see a decline to late 40s / early 50s with no acquisition news. Regardless, it's a great company with solid prospects and one to tuck away.

Thanks again.

[michaelmcandrew] 12/8/2015 21:29

Attended this evening's Shares Magazine presentation by John Dawson.

His input was about the company in general with no new financial information. His figures were taken from the 2014 annual results so I won't rehash them - they are all in the annual report. He was obviously constrained about revealing new information by the impending interim results in early September. [So, a strange time to do the presentation?]

The Q&A were interesting [but not surprising for those of us who have heard JD speak in the past] :-

* APH has facilities of £18m approved and available for purchases

* any acquisitions will be established products with no marketing risk

* before a product is bought in there is a very extensive due diligence process to try and ensure that there has been no cooking of the books by the vendor

* there is no R&D spend because APH doesn't do R&D but they do spend extensively on promotion [within limits that do not damage profitability]

* It is capitalism when a company is bought because it has a higher break-up value than it's cost. APH would rely on shareholders perception of future prospects to ward off any approach

* JD knows of nothing driving the recent rise in the share price. Suggested that the company had treaded water and faced headwinds over the past 3 or 4 years resulting in nervousness amongst investors. He thought that there was now a perception that the headwinds had abated leading to the rise in share price. There had been a number of very large purchases recently.

[cezary] 12/8/2015 21:00

Possible rns tomorrow then?

[little minx] 12/8/2015 16:53

APH are presenting tonight in LondonCan't remember the full detsils

[cisk] 12/8/2015 10:09

123, I didn't really expect a RNS on the day John is presenting, it's just coincidence.

As for the rise, who knows. As I've said on here before, Robbie Burns (Naked Trader) buying in will undoubtedly have helped the price, as he has quite a following.

Also, APH has quite steady (and predictable) cashflow and has been able to pay down debt. Given the tumultuous times at the moment, these qualities cannot be overlooked by the market.

Also I suspect that deal(s) are in the offing - but they are always looking at deals.

Finally, the existing product mix has a couple of potential stars that are branded - rather than generic.

I've mentioned before the pent-up demand for Ashford & Parsons baby food, until recently that has been massively constrained. There's plenty of scope to export that product outside of the UK - e.g. to China - despite their economic woes there's plenty of demand for such a product.

Also Lypsol - again a well-respected brand that could be revitalised.

And immucyst starting production again - and of course there may be possibility of clawing back lost profits from the manufacturing closure.

All this is just conjecture of course - will the stock go up or down after John's presentation - who knows - he'll be limited as to what he can say of course.

[123prezzie] 12/8/2015 09:23

No RNS, so it appears I was wrong and this is just a re-rating of the shares. If so, 60p feels a bit toppy to me unless the interim results on 9 Sept come in with something which the pre-close statement didn't hint at. In view of the upcoming interims, John Dawson will have to be careful what he says at the Shares Investor Evening tonight; if anyone goes, please report back.

[123prezzie] 11/8/2015 11:45

Pimp. Like Wray, but without so many zeroes on the end, I have been building my position over the years. Nevertheless I've top sliced. If it goes up further, that's great; if it goes back to 40p, I can buy back in and sit patiently again.

[pimpernel4] 11/8/2015 10:08

Indeed, as far as I know, Wray has been building his position (14% of the company I think) patiently over the years. Perhaps someone (him) took a bit of profit there (who can blame them at these prices) but I too believe his main stake is a reflection of his longer term belief in the management and prospects here. Interesting couple of days ahead for sure.

[little minx] 11/8/2015 10:05

Always thought Wray was more of a longer term holderLet's see where this goes after the presentation

[123prezzie] 10/8/2015 19:06

Pimp/Little M. There is always the possibility that there is a 650k seller, Nigel Wray for example. There are about 30 shareholders (excluding insiders) with this quantity or more. I'm more interested in the buyer.

John Dawson is due to give his presentation to Shares Magazine Investors Evening on Weds at 18.30. If there isn't an RNS Tues or Weds 7am its going to make life a bit difficult for him as everyone will want to know what's happening.

[little minx] 10/8/2015 15:31

I wondered if one was a rollover but then thought an order that size would take a few days to fillA little surprised not up a little more

[pimpernel4] 10/8/2015 15:29

What do we make of those 650,000 buys there?

Never seen so many at that size for APH.

Wonder if there are any more to come.

Interesting afternoon here.