Alliance Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[mazarin] 02/2/2015 15:36

Although somewhat overdue we finally hear (strangely around mid-day) today of APH's latest acquisition - MacuVision Europe Ltd that is expected to add future value by the BoD. As yet its very early days to discover just how well the news will be received and for us to judge its effect on the share price As ever, time will tell.

MacuShield is a daily dietary supplement designed to boost the natural level of pigment in the retina and taken for commonly experienced eye conditions endured by many people who suffer from dry-eyes and macular degeneration as they grow older, .

[davebowler] 20/1/2015 15:43

Share prophets;
Speciality pharmaceutical company, Alliance Pharma (APH) has updated that 2014 “pre-tax profits are expected to be in line with current market expectations” on turnover of £43.5 million and that “we continue to evaluate a number of acquisition opportunities”.

Expected toxicology product (having reached a sales cycle peak) and Nu-Seals (generic competition-related) sales declines were significantly offset by growth in other products and we resultantly continue to look for earnings per share comfortably in excess of 3p.

The company added that “cash generation remains strong and as a result net bank debt at 31 December 2014 was £21.1 million, down £4.6 million in the year. Alliance currently has £24 million of committed unutilised facility available to fund acquisitions”.

In this regard - as noted when Steve & I tipped this stock on our Nifty Fifty website at a 31p offer price- there is a strong track record and, with the shares currently at 36.5p-37p, there remains an approaching 3% dividend yield.

This will not shoot the lights out from here. The debt is too high simply to say that ther stock is on a PE of little more than 10. But as that debt is reduced and/or earnings grow steadily augmented on by bolt-ons there should be a steady re-rating. Our target exit price remains 45p. Our official stance is now “hold” but on balance – with a gun to my head – I’d rather be long, viewing this as a safe defensive play, than short.

[mazarin] 19/1/2015 09:30

Largely remaining 'on course' with a reduction in 'net debt' and an approved £24m 'war chest'.

[mazarin] 31/12/2014 20:35

Cheers Cisk, good to see you're still loyally following, like me. HNY

[cisk] 31/12/2014 19:43

Hi Maz, here's hoping for a great 2015 on the markets and for APH in particular.

It's been a while since they announced any new acquisitions so I wouldn't be surprised if one is announced soon.

Anyway, stay as she goes!

Happy 2015.

[mazarin] 31/12/2014 16:52

Yes, I agree does it appear to be an uncannily similar pattern, but would not describe it as a 'ramp'. The chart does show that last year before Christmas there was a flurry of unexplained buying activity, that I recall showed 'trades' were posted quite late during trading sessions, but unfortunately that trend quickly evaporated by January. Throughout most of the year it's bounced along the 33p mark and drifted lower when it tested the patience of many less committed holders until quite recently on 'No apparent News'. The interesting question now is what's currently driving it.....? Could it perhaps be connected to possible compensation for lost business as a result of the Sanofi Pasteur disaster?....only me speculating here, as the BoD were taking legal advice on this issue.

It has been remarked on by several others on this BB, that APH is fairly tightly held in large numbers by a relatively close group of investors, who presumably have some connection with the Company, so it may follow that their opportunity to buy is determined and regulated by FCA rules. However, there could even be an acquisition on the horizon.....who knows? No doubt we will hear soon enough. I've been expecting this possibility for some weeks.

[petethehippy] 31/12/2014 13:16

The annual December price ramp

[mazarin] 15/12/2014 20:59

Quite agree Norbert, my FTSE and mid caps have been looking more than 'a bit sick' lately.

[norbert colon] 15/12/2014 20:48

Im sure a few investors out there get a bit impatient but I see APH as a very safe investment with a decent yield and it's just a case of being patient or investing elsewhere. The sideways valuation range is frustrating but the BoD are active in looking for deals to enhance earnings and one or two decent deals could transform the current outlook - don't lose sight of that.

Give the general downward movement in valuations across a large number of companies this year APH has faired up pretty well and I am certainly happy to hold these long term.

Now, let's look forward to what 2015 may bring...

Good luck to all.

[mazarin] 15/12/2014 20:23

And the ticks continue....they might be small, but at least they're in the right direction.

[pyemckay] 12/12/2014 01:31

take out the spike to 40 and its done hee haw.

eps growth of 1% over last 3 years.

Eps forecast to fall this year. Good luck with that.

Turnover stagnant.

[cisk] 12/12/2014 00:37

Pye, it's ticked up from 32 to 32.75 in a few weeks; it hit over 40p at the beginning of this year, so I wouldn't say it's been in the 30s for years...

I agree it's pretty range bound, but I'm happy with that given so many other stocks are going to sh1te at the moment. Oilers - knackered. Miners - the same. Banks - funny money and never touched them. The likes of Globo and Quindell - well anything that's heavily ramped I stay well clear of.

So little old Alliance, with the CEO having a large shareholding, and doing small deals on the side in a business that I can understand - well, I'm happy to hold.

Maz is right- we're probably due some corporate action, or at least an update on trading.

[pyemckay] 12/12/2014 00:15

steadily ticking up? Are you sure your talking about APH. I look in here ever so often and its been in the 30's for years. dead money here.

[mazarin] 11/12/2014 23:53

I've noticed that APH has been steadily ticking up quietly over the last few weeks on 'no apparent news' and in my experience similar action in the past has been followed by an acquisition announcement or other 'value enhancing' event. It has been several months since we last heard from the BoD in this respect and I wouldn't be at all surprised if such were to be announced soon. However, of course I could well be wrong. Watch this space....!

[cisk] 16/9/2014 22:35

Norbert, I couldn't agree more; I've been a holder since the 5p days and have bought and sold over the years (in fact originally bought at 20p, only to see them halve to 10p, then bought back at half that... you get the picture).

Anyway, I've met John Dawson several times over the years - clearly knows his area very well and has a large personal holding.

As always the market is obsessed with the headline growth rate year-on-year; some years that works for APH (e.g. when they get a bargain like Deltacortril), others it doesn't, like Immucyst (great product but unlucky with production issues).

Point is that there will always be stars and banana skins - it's the nature of the market. I do sense, as I've posted before, that they are moving into more consumer driven products, such as baby food, lip treatment and so on. This could bring increased stability and core earnings growth (along with increased marketing cost).

So there's nothing in the recent results that gives me cause to worry. They are expanding into Europe and China, increasing their product offering, only buying new products at the right price, and as you say, pay a decent dividend.

Happy holder here.

[norbert colon] 16/9/2014 22:08

Personally as the valuation takes a dip this is potentially buying opportunity with a medium term view. I have bought on a few of the dips and have held since early 2011. Investors are probably put off by the flat performance of the share price over the last 5 years (range bound between 23p and 40p) but equally they pay a decent dividend and are well managed by John Dawson. The 30p level is a very attractive entry point IMO.

[mazarin] 10/9/2014 11:37

Interesting to read another take on today's results from a generally supportive quarter :-

[cisk] 10/9/2014 08:46

Mazarin, agree completely with your comments - what is most interesting is that they are clearly heading towards a more consumer-facing product mix with focus on infant / children; with a few more products and further push into China they could have a profitable niche going there...

[mazarin] 10/9/2014 07:45

Its a pity that reduced profits from cyclical toxicology products continue to impact on results that otherwise would have been excellent. Its a credit to BoD that they have diversified and still been able, as a result, to fill the gap with robust profits from other areas and maintain their improving dividend policy. Its good to hear encouraging feedback from the market reflecting a continued demand for the ImmunCyst. And I'm also pleased to hear that discussions are continuing with Sanofi Pasteur about possible redress for the lost sales. The loss of production of ImmunCyst to APH has been significant over the last couple of years.

[rocheberie] 09/9/2014 11:01

The Interim results are out tomorrow, on Wednesday 10th September 2014

[petethehippy] 05/9/2014 19:34

What are expectations for Thursdays update?

[norbert colon] 09/7/2014 07:55

Ok so no amazing news but slow and steady is fine by me whilst we play the patient game. Decent yield of 3% and a great BoD working behind the scenes is fine for me rather than a volatile share price We can all sleep well at night holding APH.

[solooiler] 09/7/2014 07:45

"We continue to expect trading performance in 2014 to be in line with our plans, before the positive impact of any further acquisitions. Around GBP22 million of our acquisition bank facility remains undrawn and available to fund opportunities as they arise. "

It sounds ok to me :0)