|Well sticking with the Duke of York analogy, we walked only part the way up the hill only to be walked back down again!|
|They have said they will meet with FDA in 2016 so I guess it depends if they RNS the outcome. As for the SP, who knows but it's fun to speculate! I think there's a bit more of a leg up to come this week then we'll stay close to 30.|
I personally would be surprised if there was any news in relation to the USA until early in 2017 and possibly with the interims. I expect that trials are now anticipated in 2018 but I could of course be well off the mark.
Apart from that I expect to see it around this price at the close tomorrow. Still a lot of re-assuring to do here. There is of course an increasing amount of potential news sources.
|Well I was hoping we may have seen a 5-6p leap today taking us to 30p but 3p is fine, especially if we get similar tomorrow! Higher volume than usual today. Hopefully we will soon get some news of their discussions with FDA regarding the repeat dose-ranging finding study protocol which should help cement the new timelines for the US opportunity.|
|We look a little like The Grand Old Duke of York to-day!
|The word is on the street
|Eventful week! Lots of things lining up to keep the share price momentum moving north. 30p could be on the cards next week....would be exciting if it hit 30 on Monday now we are out of overhang territory.|
In a week when the FTSE 100 finally made an all-time high there were surprisingly few big winners among either the large or mid-caps. A three-day losing streak for the blue-chip index clearly took some froth out of the market, which is why we cast our net a bit wider in search of our Share of the week.
In fact, we headed all the way to AIM where an old favourite was causing a stir.
We last covered Allergy Therapeutics (AGY) in September following full-year results. Revenue had risen fast, but heavy R&D spend meant big full-year losses and a possible delay to profitability.
However, one analyst reckoned an enterprise value (EV)/sales ratio of just 1.6 times made the shares "very cheap", with peers trading on a ratio of three times. It's why Paul Cuddon at Numis slapped a 37p price target on the shares.
That article - Allergy Therapeutics tipped to bounce back - was nearly three weeks ago, and things have really taken off since.
In the days following our write-up, directors opened their wallets, snapping up 280,000 Allergy shares at 17.75-19.25p. Chief executive Manuel Llobet kicked things off, buying 100,000 at 18p. Finance director Nicolas Wykeman picked up 150,000 at 17.75p, before chairman Peter Jensen bagged 30,000 at 19.25p.
This Friday, the share price peaked at 25p, up 45% since the results. It's also a five-month high, and just a penny from the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the October 2015 best at 35p.
Clearly, the market also liked news Monday that Allergy would present data at the World Vaccine Congress, demonstrating how its adjuvants can make "significant improvements" in the effectiveness of malaria vaccines.
Data also implies "highly significant" potential for this novel adjuvant system in infectious disease applications using Allergy's Bencard Adjuvant Systems (BAS) technology, we're told.
Panmure Gordon has been a fan for ages, and remains a buyer, believing Allergy could be worth 53p a share in time. The broker's sum-of-the-parts valuation is based on enterprise value/sales analysis of specialty pharma and allergy peers for calendar year 2017, estimated balance sheet cash and net present value of its Pollinex Quattro hay fever treatment.|
|Monday is likely to be very interesting as AGY has been tipped as THE SHARE OF THE WEEK in Interactive Investor (iii) and that benchmark of 37p price from Paul Cuddon is again mentioned.
There has been very solid progress here and the recent good news has not really shown in the share price due to a large overhang from a sell order placed by an insti following the recent setback on the USA trials.
That overhang has now cleared by the look of to-days movement. I thought it strange the mm's upping the bid price so late in the day and thought to myself that they are keen for this stock. Now I know why!
Good to see AGY be recognised at last. We are still very much at the start of the journey.
|BENCARD....Very impressive! impo
Well absolutely yes, but better than that it suggests that their Adjuvant might have even wider applicability beyond these areas. Think of the potential implications....
Hypothetically, if Allergy's adjuvant can make other vaccines more effective then that can be patented as a new patent and will extend the life of a Pharma Co's existing product. The value proposition will be pretty evident to the vaccine owner that would, I suggest, have to fund the improved formula through the approval process. Allergy would only need to license their adjuvant to the Pharma for its specific use.
|Currently travelling in the USA so only just seen yesterday's news. Its a bit left field but it just shows how much they can leverage the technology they have and also that management appear to be well placed when it comes to partnering with those best placed to benefit from the application of their novel adjuvant systems. When you think that AGY could soon be major players in malaria, peanut allergy and grass allergy, the potential for revenue growth is fairly huge.|
|Panmure update on today's RNS:
|It appears as if we have been taken off the naughty boy step!
|I was at the Proactive meeting too jimmyloser and the Shares Magazine presentation the week before
Both slides sets are now available and the video from the shares Mag presentation (see links below)
I bought a few on the strength of the Shares Mag presentation and the recent director share buying.
Regarding the announcement today, as you say, it was a bit left field as malaria was not even mentioned at either of the two recent presentations|
|This mornings RNS came from 'left of field' for me but is really interesting to see the width of AGY.
Allergy Therapeutics presents enhanced efficacy data in a malaria vaccine model with its novel adjuvant system. Data to be presented today at the World Vaccine Congress demonstrates "significant improvements" in effective infectious disease applications using Bencard Adjuvant Systems technology.
|I attended the Proactive forum last evening and enjoyed a very positive message and presentation from the CEO.
I came away with a feeling that positive opportunities are all around us and are being managed in a sensible way.
It appears that the company were really puzzled by the failure of the USA trials.
The large overhang has been cleared it is believed. Will we see a holdings notice?
All seems to be good for the medium/longer term shareholder.
Anyone over the age of 95 may wish to consider carefully this opportunity.
|HARDMAN & CO UPDATE
|From elsewhere on the web
Allergy Therapeutics plc 198.6% Potential Upside Indicated by Panmure Gordon
by: Amilia Stone 26th September 2016
Allergy Therapeutics plc using EPIC/TICKER code LON:AGY has had its stock rating noted as ‘Retains’; with the recommendation being set at ‘BUY’ this morning by analysts at Panmure Gordon. Allergy Therapeutics plc are listed in the Health Care sector within AIM. Panmure Gordon have set their target price at 53 GBX on its stock. This would indicate that the analyst believes there is a potential upside of 198.6% from today’s opening price of 17.75 GBX. Over the last 30 and 90 trading days the company share price has decreased 1.35 points and decreased 1.3 points respectively.
Allergy Therapeutics plc LON:AGY has a 50 day moving average of 19.03 GBX and a 200 day moving average of GBX. The 1 year high for the stock price is 34.82 GBX while the 52 week low for the stock is 17.29 GBX. There are currently 601,432,778 shares in issue with the average daily volume traded being 252,540. Market capitalisation for LON:AGY is £106,934,752 GBP.
Allergy Therapeutics plc is a United Kingdom-based pharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on the treatment and prevention of allergy with aluminum free products. It provides information to healthcare professionals about the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of allergic conditions with focus on allergy vaccination, which is also known as specific immunotherapy or desensitization therapy. The Company’s business segments are Central Europe, Southern Europe, the United Kingdom and Rest of World.|
|Proactive Investors is here: http://tinyurl.com/jrbgy5s|
|Perfect news this morning and that should act as the stimulus we need.
This may help too..........From another board.
"Allergy Therapeutics trading at a significant discount: buy
Allergy Therapeutics (AGY) is trading at a discount to peers and additional upside is in the pipeline.
Numis analyst Paul Cuddon retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of 37p on the shares, which fell 5.4% to 17.4p yesterday.
‘Revenue growth of 19% on constant currency reflects Allergy Therapeutics’ strong performance in Europe, and in our opinion more than compensates for the setback in US development,’ he said.
‘We continue to see a strong outlook for the business in Europe and following the disappointing commercial performance of daily tables in the US, ultimately see it as the best-placed company to crack the larger US market, with a treatment format that suits the US allergists’ preference for injections.
‘The shares trade at a material discount to peers with significant additional upside from the pipeline, which now includes a promising peanut vaccine.’ "|
|Allergy Therapeutics CEO Manuel Llobet will be presenting to investors at the Proactive One2One Healthcare investor forum on the 6th October in Mayfair. For further details and registration please click here: http://tinyurl.com/j7mz7r7|
|Morning - new films for Allergy. Results film and re-edited Overview film
|I have been traveling all day but see another fall in the price. May I ask if the 17.38 were in fact Buy trades and not a reported sell trades? Any update appreciated.
AGY have certainly got some people they have upset judging by the sheer volume of shares that have materialised - a holdings notice coming?
Nice one Manuel buying a hundred k
The are two lots of two words that will change everything here impo.
The first pair are PROGRESS /USA and the second pair are SUCCESS/USA.
My money certainly looks safe tonight but the Cadillac et al will have wait until they RNS those two words.