All Leisure Group Share Discussion Threads

[masurenguy] 09/5/2012 08:18

Just curious - did you exit here or was this just a reduction in your shareholding ?

[ddahj] 08/5/2012 20:28

I had no problem selling 10000 today. But tried buying the same quantity on the same trading platform was not possible. So you are probably right someone is accumulating?!

[masurenguy] 04/5/2012 15:45

Glad that I added last Tuesday since something perhaps is going on behind the scenes ! A transaction
of 210,000 shares @32p just before 2.00pm (shown as a Sell) had absolutely no affect on the share
price. However, a small Buy of 8751 shares at the full Offer of 35p just an hour later results in the Bid
being lifted to 32p. Could a broker be looking for shares to feed someone who is accumulating !

[masurenguy] 25/4/2012 19:25

Looks like he did so at a good price too - 27p !

[canteatvalue] 25/4/2012 17:42

So, Mark Slater topped up?

[somerset lad] 12/4/2012 18:30

Fair points Hieronymous1 -- I agree.

[hieronymous1] 12/4/2012 12:55

Somerset Lad

Fuel - better hedging or running slow, rents on offices, commission to travel agents, sourcing non-fuel supplies such as food and bedding, insurance cover are the non employment related cost savings I would look at first. People closer to the industry doubtless have a better idea than my amateur brainstorming.

[masurenguy] 12/4/2012 10:24

Here is the report in todays issue of The Times.

All Leisure directors waive their dividend

Directors of the cruise company that operates the Hebridean Princess have opted to waive their rights to the final dividend on the back of increasingly stormy trading conditions. All Leisure Group, which was awarded a royal warrant recently, said that although ordinary shareholders would receive the 1.3p payout declared in January, the five directors had agreed unanimously to forgo it. The board, which speaks for about 74% of the shares, is waiving its right to payments totalling almost £600,000. Roger Allard, the executive chairman, who has a 60% stake, is giving up a payment of about £486,000.

Mr Allard told investors at the annual meeting yesterday that the directors had taken the decision because trading was proving "considerably more challenging this year than envisaged". The former First Choice Holidays managing director said that, although the group had performed reasonably well during the winter, its Discover Egypt brand was experiencing a slow recovery from the Arab Spring and the capsize of the Costa Concordia off Italy had caused ripples across the cruise market. He said that fallout from the tragedy in January had been compounded by "the unprecedented headwinds of natural disasters, geopolitical events, worsening economic conditions, low interest rates, increasing oil prices and crisis in the eurozone". He admitted that the sharp slowdown in sales had been reversed only through "significant discounting"
but insisted that the trading update was not a profit warning. "It's too early to say that," he said.

Since its final results in January, All Leisure has reintroduced two of its three vessels - the Hebridean Princess and the Minerva - after winter dry-dock periods, although the extended period spent by the Minerva to undergo a €14m (£11.5m) upgrade means that pre-tax profits this year will fall from £2.6m to about £1m. Mr Allard said that, to counter the impact of discounting on margins, the board had launched a full review of its cost base. He played down the likelihood of job losses, adding: "As Lord King once said: 'Overheads are like the grass growing under your feet. Now and again you have to get the mower out to give it a trim.'" All Leisure shares, floated at 180p in 2007, fell by 3½p to close at 31p.

[somerset lad] 12/4/2012 09:17

Extensive coverage of the AGM in today's Times (although I would have preferred a picture of an ALLG vessel, rather than the Costa Concordia on its side!).

Two points that weren't evident from the RNS:

1. Mr Allard "insisted that the trading update was not a profit warning. 'It's too early to say that', he said."

2. On the final sentence of the RNS (about cost cutting), Mr Allard "played down the likelihood of job losses, adding 'As Lord King once said: 'Overheads are like grass growing under your feet. Now and again you have to get the mower out to give it a trim.'"

Item (2) suggests -- contrary to my speculation yesterday -- that the final sentence is not a coded announcement of plans to take private. Although if it is unlikely to involve job losses, it's not evident what the review will cover.

[masurenguy] 11/4/2012 15:51

SL - I very much doubt that All Leisure would seek to delist from AIM. As a company with annual sales
of £80m, the circa £150k cost of of their listing is not really that significant. It also provides them with
a much better facility to make acquisitions than would be the case as a private company and with inside ownerhip of just under 75% the management have virtually full control anyway.

I'm usually very wary of buying into small AIM caps with such a high insider ownership since minority shareholders in those kind of situations often just get treated like cannon fodder by the directors and
they are always at risk of a potential delisting. However, the recent stake building in All Leisure by Mark Slater allayed my concerns in this respect since he will have done his DD and must have been confident
that there is little chance of any delisting before making an investment here.

Todays decision by the Board to waive their own dividends, but to preserve them for all other shareholders, both attests to their integrity and their desire to maintain good relationships with their external shareholder base. Why bother to do this if they were looking at delisting as a cost saving option.

[somerset lad] 11/4/2012 14:35

A few more thoughts:

1. Winter trading is "in line with budget", even though the RNSs of 29.11.11 and 25.1.12 referred to Winter trading as being "extremely challenging". This provides interesting context to the statement that summer trading is "considerably more challenging this year than envisaged".

2. The final sentence is interesting -- "Bearing in mind the increasing overheads and the Board's duty to maximise returns for the Group's shareholders, it is in the process of carrying out a full review of its cost base." One obvious overhead is the listing and I suppose this may presage a take private. ALLG has been very decent to its minority shareholders, including with today's dividend announcement, and I would expect reasonable terms for any such deal.

3. But I am not keen: there is scope for a very successful recovery here and we would miss out on much of it if there were a take private -- management has been investing intelligently through the down-turn and the target customer group is probably being held back by lack of confidence rather than lack of funds.

Anyway, I remain very, very impressed by management putting the interests of minority shareholders ahead of their own (entirely legitimate) interests.

[masurenguy] 11/4/2012 09:57

Trading conditions have recently deteriorated and the Costa Concordia disaster has clearly not been positive for bookings either. However ALLG are smaller, lighter and more flexible than their large counterparts in the cruising sector and have greater short term options to address these issues.

I like the management style of waiving dividend payments to insiders (74%) as an economy measure but maintaining them to external shareholders - a totally different approach to the "stuff your own pockets and sod the shareholders" that seems to be prevalent in many other companies today. Prudent currency hedging & forward fuel contracts are also indicative of their competent management capabilities.

The market makers have marked the share price down by 10% in anticipation of some Sells although there has been nothing yet. For those who take a longer term view than 6 months this represents a good buying or top up opportunity and I will certainly consider adding again over the next few weeks, subject to macro market conditions.

RNS Number : 0751B
11 April 2012

Annual General Meeting update

At its Annual General Meeting held today in London at 09:00am, Roger Allard, Executive Chairman of destination-led niche cruise operator, All Leisure group PLC (AIM:ALLG), gave the following update:
"Since my last statement on 25 January 2012, we have re-introduced both mv Minerva and mv Hebridean Princess into service following their winter dry dock periods. However, as a result of the tragic sinking of Costa Concordia and other related issues in the cruise market, sales have slowed down considerably and have only been revived by significant discounting. This is happening across the cruise industry and is compounded by the unprecedented headwinds of natural disasters, geo-political events, worsening economic conditions, low interest rates, increasing oil price and crisis in the Eurozone. Added to this, we have only seen a slow increase in bookings on our Discover Egypt brand since the Arab Spring of last year.
On a more positive note, we have performed reasonably well, and in line with budget for the current winter where higher than usual winter losses were planned as a result of two of our vessels being dry docked for winter. All Leisure Holidays Limited has been honoured with a Royal Warrant from Her Majesty the Queen for the provision of cruise holidays on Hebridean Princess and all the Directors, staff, officers and crew are very proud of this prestigious accolade.

We have hedged the majority of our currency requirements for this financial year at rates that are currently better than spot. We have also covered approximately 30% of our fuel requirements for this financial year through fuel hedges. As trading is considerably more challenging this year than envisaged, the Board has unanimously agreed to waive the proposed dividend in relation to shareholdings held by the Board (74.01% of the issued share capital), but have voted to pay a final dividend of 1.31p per share payable on 2 May 2012 to all other shareholders, in recognition of the strong underlying asset-backed balance sheet and brands, resulting in a full year dividend of 1.95p per share. Bearing in mind the increasing overheads and the Board's duty to maximise returns for the Group's shareholders, it is in the process of carrying out a full review of its cost base."

[somerset lad] 11/4/2012 09:44

The board is maintaining the dividend for private shareholders whilst waiving its own entitlement -- very commendable.

[masurenguy] 19/3/2012 10:07

Hi CEV - last PG broker note published on 25/01/2012

Panmure Gordon
All Leisure Group (27p)
FY 2011 in-line; divi maintained
(Buy: 38p TP)

The group has reported £2.6m adj PBT (4.25p EPS) versus our forecast of £2.6m adj PBT (4.21p EPS). Encouragingly, the 1.95p full-year dividend has been maintained (i.e. 7.2% yield) and the NAV per share has increased to 53p, a c96% premium to the current share price. FY 2012E trading is challenging and
we reduce our PBT forecast to £1.0m (1.60p EPS), principally reflecting the increased H1 losses from an extended dry dock and upgrade for mv Minerva. We reiterate our Buy recommendation – and would highlight the yield and NAV per share – but reduce our TP from 42p to 38p.

FY 2011A results.
The group has reported £2.6m adj PBT (4.25p EPS) versus our forecast of £2.6m adj PBT (4.21p EPS). Adj operating profit of £2.3m was down YOY reflecting higher fuel costs, the impact from the Arab Spring on Discover Egypt, an increase in depreciation and lower charter revenue from Alexander Von Humboldt. This was only partly offset by tight cost control and income arising from insurance claims. Encouragingly, the 1.95p full-year dividend has been maintained and the NAV per share has increased to 53p. Year-end net cash was £7.2m, of which of £0.5m is classified as restricted cash.

FY 2012E outlook.
As previously indicated, H1 losses will be higher YOY principally due to the extended dry dock for mv Minerva. The ship is undergoing a significant upgrade at a cost of €14m (mostly funded by the ship's owner), and the benefit of this is already being reflected in achieved fares per diem up 11% for Summer 2012 compared to Summer 2011. Overall Summer 2012 ocean cruising volumes are down 7% compared to this time last year on capacity up 15%, but per diem fares are up. Where possible, All Leisure is looking to consolidate group functions and is investing in a new procurement system. The group is also developing new routes to market via GDS and online to increase booking options.

Forecasts.
We reduce our FY 2012E PBT forecast to £1.0m (1.60p EPS) from £6.4m PBT (10.2p EPS), principally reflecting the higher H1 losses from mv Minerva's extended dry dock. The group should, therefore, see a significant increase in profitability in FY 2013E and we forecast £4.8m PBT (7.6p EPS). We forecast that the 1.95p dividend is maintained over the next two years.

Valuation.
Whilst on our FY 2012E forecast the P/E looks high, we believe the FY 2013 forecast of £4.6m PBT (7.6p EPS) provides a better indicator of underlying profitability – post the mv Minerva extended drydock and upgrade – and, on this basis, the stock trades on a P/E of 3.5x. The 1.95p dividend leaves the stock yielding 7.2% (or 4.85% on the final dividend alone,) and the NAV per share of 53p is a 96% premium
to the current share price. In addition, the group is debt free, with year-end cash of £7.2m of which of £0.5m is classified as restricted cash. We reiterate our Buy recommendation but reduce our TP from
42p to 38p, implying a FY 2013E P/E of 5.0x and a 5.1% yield.

[canteatvalue] 18/3/2012 16:19

Hi Masurenguy, good to see some extra interest in this company and to know I'm not alone! Do you happen to have the latest broker note available? I'd be very interested in seeing what they make of things. I see from sharelockholmes that the current forecast is for them only to do £1m of PBT this year so I'm curious as to how they arrived at that.

[masurenguy] 17/3/2012 16:15

Thread author has not posted here in almost a year so I have set up a new and updated thread here.

[masurenguy] 17/3/2012 16:09

The PG broker projection on November 29th was a reiteration of their Buy recommendation with a target shareprice of 42p (courtesy of Welsheagle). Slater Investments increased their stake by 250,000 shares @31p to take them above the 3% reporting threshold last month.



Mark Slater raises stake in newly profitable All Leisure Group
Citywire AAA-rated small cap star Mark Slater has upped his backing for cruise operating company All Leisure Group after it returned to profit, defying higher fuel costs, constrained consumers and a volatile Mediterranean. The manager increased his investment in the company from 1.68m shares to 1.93m or 3.14%, worth £600,855 at a share price of 31p.

Slater is among the top three managers in his sector over one, three and five years, using a combination of growth and value indicators to find reasonably priced, expansionary businesses. Shares in the All Leisure Group remain well below their year high of 49p, trading at a multiple of just 5.11 times 2011 earnings, half the FTSE All Share average of 10.51 times, and yielding 6.29%. The company's bottom line was boosted last year after the company was awarded £1.9m in costs incurred after honouring bookings made on a cruise ship bought out of administration. The company filed a pre-tax profit of £5.7 million in January, following a £2.1m loss in 2010.

[masurenguy] 17/3/2012 15:25

This is the new thread for the All Leisure Group - a niche UK owned cruise operator. At a current market cap of just £20.7m the company is valued at a discount to its year end NAV of £32m. Furthermore, at Fridays closing price of 35p, it is trading at an historic PER and yield of just 3.8 and 5.6% respectively.
The company was also debt free and had net cash of £7.2m, at the last year end at 31/10/11.

There was an an excellent and well balanced investment case made by CantEatValue on the TMF Board last month and I trust that he won't mind me reproducing it here.

[masurenguy] 20/2/2012 18:06

Yes - Mark Slater has stuck his head over the parapet here as his 250,000 share purchase two weeks ago takes him over the obligatory reporting threshold. He now holds 1.9m or 3.1% of the shares.
___________________________________________________________________________

Citywire: Feb 20, 2012
Mark Slater raises stake in newly profitable All Leisure Group
Mark Slater has upped his backing for cruise operating company All Leisure Group

Citywire AAA-rated small cap star Mark Slater has upped his backing for cruise operating company All Leisure Group after it returned to profit, defying higher fuel costs, constrained consumers and a volatile Mediterranean. The manager increased his investment in the company from 1.68m shares to 1.93m, or 3.14%, worth £600,855 at a share price of 31p. Slater is among the top three managers in his sector over one, three and five years, using a combination of growth and value indicators to find reasonably priced, expansionary businesses. Shares in the All Leisure Group remain well below their year high of 49p, trading at a multiple of just 5.11 x 2011 earnings, half the FTSE All Share average of 10.51 times, and yielding 6.29%. The company's bottom line was boosted last year after the company was awarded £1.9m in costs incurred after honouring bookings made on a cruise ship bought out of administration. The company filed a pre-tax profit of £5.7m in January, following a £2.1m loss in 2010.

[praipus] 15/2/2012 10:59

Just noticed the Slater clans' interest here. I have added them to post 70 on the WAM thread where I am attempting to track the rest of their investments and those of other active deep value investors and arbitrageurs.

[somerset lad] 14/2/2012 18:01

I think they're through 3%. They seem to have:

- bought 250k shares (total of direct + indirect, minus the number of shares prior to the triggering transaction); and

- transferred 1.71m shares from direct to indirect control.

The reporting obligation arises because they are "above 3%" with 3.14% (from their direct + indirect holding of 1.94m).

[canteatvalue] 14/2/2012 17:39

Are they though? From the RNS it looks like they've somehow decreased the number of shares but increased the number of voting rights... I'm confused!

[somerset lad] 14/2/2012 17:15

Slater Investments Ltd through 3 per cent.: we're not the only ones to see the value here.