Alkemy Capital Investments Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 04/9/2014 08:26

Another story re those potential power shortages (cheers 123qwer):

[rivaldo] 03/9/2014 14:47

Cheers Mortimer7 - here's the link:

[mortimer7] 03/9/2014 11:58

Indirectly might be good news for ALK:-

"Emergency measures to fire up mothballed power stations could be used to keep the lights on this winter, after a series of power plant fires and closures left Britain more vulnerable to blackouts. National Grid announced on Tuesday that it would begin recruiting idle or mothballed power plants, which would be paid to ensure they could fire up if needed as a "last resort". - The Telegraph

[rivaldo] 03/9/2014 08:42

123qwer, thx for the info, but please could you use the main thread to post on with charts etc? Perhaps you could repeat your posts there?

[spaceparallax] 03/9/2014 08:27

Thanks for those - had heard something on the radio.

It does beg the question why plants are being closed down in the face of a looming shortfall. By all means replace with greener facilities WHEN available, but NOT in advance.

[123qwer] 02/9/2014 19:05

the other link

hxxp://news.sky.com/story/1328788/national-grid-seeks-extra-winter-electricity

[123qwer] 02/9/2014 18:57

I was on leave from work today and was doing some research re my next share buying.
Alk has been in my sights for a few months ie since posting here and another forum.
Read this in the telegraph this morning and another site which i will try to refind that read even better.

The only reason i did not buy is the spread and cant see the share price go up more than a few pence but I get this feeling that Alk may attract a bid.

As always I'm 100% honest and hold no postion as yet in ALK - ATB and DYOR

[rivaldo] 02/9/2014 13:37

Thx Mort - EDR's share price has reacted nicely.

And today VSA Capital have reiterated their Buy and 54p price target for ALK:

[spaceparallax] 02/9/2014 10:13

Cheers Mort, that does sound promising

[mortimer7] 02/9/2014 09:34

Good RNS from Egdon Resources this morning : ALK own 18% of Egdon

[123qwer] 31/8/2014 17:36

Talking about "tips" guys, I for one use my own instinct,

A bit of research showed big TIP for 100p and that was in 2005

So think hard before investing/gambling


ATB and DYOR

www.an ADVFN competitor.com/InvestorsRoom/posts.php?tid=8208&from=118

[123qwer] 31/8/2014 17:36

ATB and DYOR

[...]

[123qwer] 31/8/2014 17:34

Talking about "tips" guys, I for one use my own instinct,

A bit of research showed big TIP for 100p and that was in 2005

So think hard before investing/gambling


ATB and DYOR
Talking about "tips" guys, I for one use my own instinct,

A bit of research showed big TIP for 100p and that was in 2005

So think hard before investing/gambling


ATB and DYOR

[...]

[rivaldo] 21/8/2014 08:49

Just received Redmayne Bentley's August newsletter - they have a feature on the attractions of UK shale investing, and ALK is one of the three favoured stocks:

"Shares in Alkane have recently reached an annual low but represents good exposure to the potential shale gas boom in the UK. Alkane has the technology to convert gas into electricity from a unit transportable on a lorry to any location, with this technology also applicable to shale gas."

[rivaldo] 20/8/2014 07:41

The entire IC tip from 2 weeks ago was posted on i.i.i (save the last line!), so here it is:

"If you followed our advice this time last year to buy shares in independent power producer Alkane Energy (ALK) and sold six months later - when we said take profits - after shale gas speculation disproportionately boosted the share price, you would have banked a quick 29 per cent profit before dealing charges.

We've been waiting for another buying opportunity and it has arrived. Alkane's shares have drifted below the level where we last tipped them and again offer excellent value, rated at just nine times next year's forecast earnings compared with 19 times at their peak. Technical analysis suggests they are oversold, too - the 14-day relative strength indicator has plunged to a three-year low. This technical set-up often produces a sharp bounce from a support level.

More importantly, the fundamentals of Alkane's power-generating business remain strong. The company continues to enjoy steady annual growth at its base load operations, where power is generated 24/7 by extracting methane gas from abandoned coal mines and converting it into electricity using onsite generators. It sells the electricity to National Grid (NG.) at a healthy mark-up. Alkane had 18 coal-mine methane (CMM) sites operating in the UK at the start of 2014, with an installed capacity totalling 45 megawatts (MW). It plans to bring two more sites on-line this year.

However, Alkane's relatively new power-response operation is the fastest growing part of the group. Here, Alkane buys gas wholesale and turns it into electricity during times of peak demand when prices are highest. Installed capacity was 36MW in December 2013, but this has risen to 92MW following two attractively-priced acquisitions this year, including the £12m purchase in July of three power-response companies with a combined generating capacity of 49MW.

The shift into power response makes sense because the UK's energy mix is becoming more varied and complex, with increasing dependence on energy from intermittent renewable sources such as wind farms. The ability of power response to fire up quickly during peak evening and winter demand means that it is becoming increasingly important to the UK grid. Moreover, the UK's power regulator, Ofgem, predicts spare generating capacity could fall as low as 2 per cent by 2016 as old power plants are shut down. Ofgem has repeatedly warned of a looming energy crunch and a heightened risk of power shortages or cuts over the coming years.

Granted, power prices have actually been weak this year following the warm winter and the plummeting price of coal. But Alkane has already contracted to sell 74 per cent of its 2014 base load output and 50 per cent of the 2015 load at the same price as last year or slightly higher. The new acquisitions will also take several months to bed in, denting profitability. Combine that with the dilutive effects of an £8m share placing, and EPS are forecast to fall slightly this year before soaring nearly 40 per cent in 2015 (see table).

Share-tip summary

Sure, the dividend is only nominal, but Alkane is growing fast and its shares offer a cheap, low-risk way to play the likely rise in UK wholesale power prices over the coming years. There's also free long-term upside"

[rivaldo] 19/8/2014 11:02

Good to see more new holders here.

And Amati UK Smaller Companies have also been increasing - they've today sent out their July newsletter, which reads as follows:



"We added to Alkane Energy, an independent 'gas to power' electricity generator, by way of a placing. Alkane operates several coal mine methane (CMM) sites to extract gas from abandoned coal mines, and made an acquisition to increase its power response generating capacity, for which it attracts both capacity and usage payments for meeting temporary supply shortages in the National Grid."

[lageraemia] 19/8/2014 09:01

My investment club topped up yesterday - bit of a no-brainer at this valuation.

[audigger] 15/8/2014 15:25

Have dipped my toe in the water!

[spaceparallax] 15/8/2014 14:32

Thanks Riv - don't think he says anything that longtermers don't aslready know but it might help bring us to the wider mkt.

[rivaldo] 15/8/2014 11:03

Malcolm Graham-Wood says Buy ALK in an interview from yesterday - see from 9 minutes onwards:

[rivaldo] 15/8/2014 09:01

Agreed.

I bought some on the dip down to 36p or so and may well buy more.

Forecasts are now for 2.9p EPS this year and 4.03p EPS next year. As we approach the final quarter of 2014 the market may well start to look forward and re-rate ALK upwards from a P/E of 9.

There are obvious risks here, but the dividend helps in attracting institutional investors, and ALK are in the right place and on the right track given the UK's difficult energy situation.

[audigger] 15/8/2014 08:09

Having held these a number of times over the years (and once being stung as they collapsed from 100p!) I am thinking this looks an attractive buy given the groth potential and recent share price fall (due to a disguised rights issue!) which makes them attractive even in the short-term.

[tiptv1] 14/8/2014 17:06

Malcolm Graham-Wood from Malcysblog gives expert Oil Analysis and says to BUY in Alkane Energy (ALK). See more here:

[lageraemia] 12/8/2014 11:14

It's a period of low seasonal demand for base load power, so it's as good a time as any for EDF to power down.

I don't think that it will directly affect ALK at this time, but it should focus some of the sharper minds out there as to the risks of relying on any one source of energy.

I think that the current energy mix policy the UK is pursuing is actually quite pragmatic, and ALK is well placed to grow.

[drsous] 11/8/2014 18:19

I would think the news that 4 edf power stations are shut down would have a positive effect on the price here as the upside here is now trying to fill the gaps at peak time rather than an alernative energy supplier