||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
Real-Time news about Alexander Dav. (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|superjane: Share price is moving upwards
Undervalued lots of potential here for a breakout|
|patty123: blimey : the share price is up at the moment, I thought they only went one way.|
|induna123: We need some news here. The share price has drifted back to level it was in December. People getting impatient and selling. We need news on the acquisition that was talked about and is there a connection with sister company ADI? What deals are being looked at?|
|new2stks: Doing good in Canada as mentioned HB.
What might we expect from the test results?
Or moreso what of the share price depending on what they may have found?
|simon54: Hi seadog2, here's the Canaccord note from 23rd Feb.:
(ADS : LSE : GBP1.93 | Issued 64.1M)
Recommendation SPECULATIVE BUY
Share Price (£) 1.93
Shares Outstanding (M) 64.1
Market Capitalisation FD (£M) 123.7
Net Cash (£M) 24.6
Oil price assumption 2005 ($/bbl) 40.0
Oil price assumption 2006 ($/bbl) 36.0
Oil price assumption 2007+ ($/bbl) 30.0
Core NAV (£/share) 0.16
Risked Expl NAV (£/share) 1.74
Total Risked NAV (£/share) 1.90
Puma 4.1 25.8
Sirruma 84.0 646.3
Guayuyaco 15.6 17.3
Molino de Viento 7.5 57.6
Guariquies 11.3 78.0
Zeus 17.6 135.1
Alamo 6.1 36.0
Malabares 4.3 8.1
Cuerdas 1.1 5.9
Estimated Cash 38.2 38.2
Total 189.8 1048.2
Share Price Performance:
F M A M J J A S O N D J F
ADULIS RES. (ISE)
FTSE ALL SHARE - PRICE INDEX
Event: Adulis announced results from the Guayuyaco and the Guayabillas wells in Colombia. Guayuyaco flow tested from three separate zones at a combined rate of around 500 bopd. With appropriate pumping facilities it is thought that the well could produce from two zones at around 2,000 bopd and given its proximity to existing infrastructure it could be brought on stream within two months. A second well is now planned on the structure, which could increase the 15 mmbbl predrill reserve estimate. Furthermore, the success at Guayuyaco potentially brings into play other leads in the area including the 100 mmbbl sized Verdeyaco structure. The Guayabillas well recovered several barrels of heavy oil and the well has been suspended. Adulis also announced the start of drilling on the vast Sirruma structure with up to 10 tcf potential and the signing of a new contract at Guachiria Norte.
Impact: The positive impact of the result at Guayuyaco is largely offset by Guayabillas although we would expect to raise our valuation when sufficient information becomes available on the new prospects at Guayuyaco and at Guachiria Norte. Even so, these
projects are unlikely to overshadow the near-term impact of results from Sirruma, which accounts for around 45% of our entire valuation of the company.
Valuation: Our valuation on Adulis is detailed on a prospect-by-prospect basis in the table on the left.
Action: Adulis remains an interesting SPECULATIVE BUY given the potential of its forthcoming drilling programme that has an unrisked value in excess of £10/share. The
results from Guayuyaco bode well but a lot rides on the outcome at Sirruma. Results are due in March.
For important information, please see the Important Disclosures section at the back of this document.
Daily Letter | 11
February 23, 2005
Risks associated with our valuation and financial forecasts
There are risks associated with the share price achieving our target price and our
financial forecasts. Commodity prices may not match our forecasts; as with any oil and
gas company, there are operating risks involved in exploration, appraisal and
development of fields; foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations will impact both the
company's operating costs and revenues. There are also numerous technical and
environmental risks associated with the operation of an oil company that could have an
impact both upon the company's valuation and our financial estimates.
An analyst has not visited the issuer's operations.
Figure 1: Adulis Resources price target and recommendation record
Date published Price Target price Recommendation
February 23, 2005 £1.93 NA Speculative Buy
October 29, 2004 £1.11 NA Speculative Buy
Source: Canaccord Capital
|day_dreamer: Dont think this is the bottom for the shareprice having looked
at online quotes.
On a monitor spread of 75-80p it's 75.62p bid for 3750 shares
but the offer is 77p (below mid price) for 50k so maybe best
to wait for next move in share price....those quotes suggest
it goes lower first.
|addict: With Minerva's share price wallowing in the mire,I can't see it making any sense to block a bid at the right price/on the right terms.Seems to me it's a case of 'when' not 'if' a bid will materialise.DYOR.|
|mikeatwork22: cor dear 'Chase holdings...' just acquired three quarters of a million shares, its gotta be good news... so, why has the share price gone down ?|
|sudash: Have a read of this from the 'GREAT' Mr Pyad
Selling Allders, Buying Banks
By Stephen Bland (TMFPyad)
October 18, 2002
Within the last couple of weeks I ditched Allders (LSE: ADS). This dalliance left me with a dose of the fiscal clap, a painful condition in my most important organ, namely my wallet. A total loss of some 32% after dividends received and my biggest hit for many years. My two reasons for pulling out were the recent bad news in the profit warning and the tremendous value I perceived building up in banks about which I wrote a few weeks ago.
Allders may still go on to do well but I believed that recovery is likely to be far quicker and possibly just as lucrative if not more so over a similar period in banks or insurances than Allders. I could have continued to hold Allders, which had used only a chunk of my funds though a fair sized one, and invest the rest in banks but the latter proved far more attractive to me, sufficiently so to the extent that I decided to drop the poorly performing store chain.
I have never shirked taking a loss if I see good reason to take it, not being one to hang on for a recovery just for the sake of it. There has to be very good value reason to do so though, as distinct from mere market noise, and the profits warning was not just noise. Allders still has a lot of value characteristics, particularly the large discount to book, much of the assets being freehold properties. But the real outer that I like to seek with pyad shares, namely rapidly increasing earnings per share, had been knocked on the head, at least for 2002 anyway. This had to throw 2003 into contention as well. Thus the P/E was no longer very attractive against the market and the yield was not that great. Many banks and insurers were offering the same or more after recent severe falls. Also the net cash may no longer be there, the company having slipped into small net debt position at the last accounts. But what finally tipped the balance was the attractions of other shares.
You can't win 'em all and I never look back. Allders is now history.
On the value board recently and in my articles I stated that financials like banks and insurance companies now represent a great opportunity, possibly one of the most attractive value situations for a long time. Consequently I have decided to put my money where my mouth is (though admittedly I have often been accused in the past of talking out from where the sun doesn't shine).
There was a damn good smell around financials in recent weeks and a particular point which attracted my attention was that poorish news from Legal & General (LSE: LGEN) with their third quarter figures did the share price no harm at all. When bad news fails to dent prices any longer, that is a clear fundamental bear bottom odour signal, as I mentioned on the value board. Though such things can never be sure, share investing being about riding the balance of likelihoods not looking for non–existent certainties.
So I have now gone into banks, though with hindsight I should have made it insurances because many of these have rocketed, the reason I didn't was that I perceived them as possibly riskier, not a problem for portfolio holders but that's not me. Not only with the Allders money but the lot. A farm deal but this time a huge portfolio of two, because these are not pyad shares but two substantial side bets if you like. I'll admit to more than a little nervous apprehension at holding a portfolio this large and diversified.
My selections are Abbey National (LSE: ANL) and Lloyds TSB (LSE: LLOY), the two cheapest banks in the sector on P/E and yield grounds when I bought. As I write these have already risen sufficiently to more than cover my loss on Allders (in pound terms not percentage amount). That's just on paper so it means little at this stage. It could easily have gone the other way I guess. Nothing really matters in the business of trading shares until you have reverted to the greatest share of all - cash - and discover whether you have more than that with which you started, sufficiently more to justify the risks.
Since my banks article, mortgage lender Abbey has become the subject of a weak bid by the Bank of Ireland, using mostly the latter's paper with a small cash sweetener. My investment had little to do with that because I never buy shares on bid hopes, I just felt that Abbey was too cheap on fundamental grounds. Clearly others think so too but the bid has been rejected by Abbey. However this does make the point that value shares are sometimes outed by bids, simply because the same features that attract the value investor can attract bidders, so bid potential comes with value shares for nothing anyway.
Lloyds is a proper bank but has been given much harsher treatment by the market than its rivals, possibly to do with the risks of its major insurance subsidiaries though in fact most of the banks have these. I'm not convinced that Lloyds is inferior to the other big banks, which is what the market is saying, and hence I found it to be given an unfairly low rating and therefore a potential value play.
When the market recovery takes place, and we may already be starting this but I cannot know of course, banks and insurers will almost certainly do better than the background market. In fact this has already been demonstrated in the recent rally. This geared effect may enable good profits to be made but you can never be certain of anything with shares of course. Meanwhile very high yields are around to keep me happy whilst waiting, assuming that the dividends are maintained of course which again is always a risk.
The author owns shares in Abbey National & Lloyds TSB.|
|timbo003: Well as far as I'm concerned Allders can BOGOF
BOGOF standing for Buy One Get One Free
i.e. the new employee share scheme introduced in the March 2000 budget.
First of all, apologies that this is a cut/paste/edit version of my earlier post, but it is worth reitterating and updating because I think many investors/potential investors haven't yet twigged the significance of this development, but time will tell!
Allders will be introducing the BOGOF scheme later this year, shareholders approved it at the AGM in January.
Apart from the obvious effect of BOGOF incentivising employees and hence increasing sense of ownership/productivity, there could be other positive benefits for shareholders.
I spoke to the company secretary today (01/05/01) and he confirmed that the scheme will start this year. Employees have to buy their shares in the market, and the company will match these with shares bought in the market (at least up until January 2002) rather than issuing new ones.
If you do a rough back of envelope calculation, you don't have to be Albert Einstein to realise this should have a very dramatic effect on the share price, in the upward direction.
Allders employ around 7000 staff, the maximum amount any member of staff can invest is £1500 per annum. Assuming 5000 staff participate in the scheme and invest an average of £1000 per annum this will mean that the staff will be purchasing £5M worth of shares per year, and the company will be purchasing £5M worth of shares per year on their behalf. Together this represents approximately 10% of the total (at the current price).
I would anticipate that most employees will hang onto these shares for a few years to maximise the tax benefits. So the result could be that within 2 years around 20% of the existing shares could be mopped up (if the share price stays where it is).
This could have the same effect as a massive share buy back or several institutions taking major stakes. Of course the employees are unlikely to end up with 20% of the company, 'cos of the effect of these purchases on liquidity, I therefore expect the share price to move sharply upwards in the medium term.|
Alexander David share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange