Alea Share Discussion Threads

[m.t.glass] 23/5/2006 11:27

Ah.. those ones..

You still buying today?

[madmanc] 23/5/2006 09:35

You're getting very tedious mate, zzzzzzzzzzz

Adeyberry - 10 May'06 - 15:37 - 617 of 626


The hurricane season is almost upon us again, I wonder if that has anything to do with the nice drift.....

TIGREBONE - 22 May'06 - 07:56 - 620 of 626


nasty hurricane season forecasted. less revenue for alea?

[m.t.glass] 23/5/2006 09:31

Eh?

Thought you said you were buying?
(.."I'm going long tomorrow..")

And who are these people you are replying to?


PS: Initial trade today looks to be a single 3750 sell (in line with size MMs are quoting) - disguised in 3 smaller lots..

[madmanc] 23/5/2006 08:57

I was simply replying to those that thought a bad hurricane season would be bad for ALEA.

[m.t.glass] 23/5/2006 00:48

madmanc - 23 May'06 - 00:24 - 623 of 624

Policies will be marked higher in the danger zones; i'm going long tomorrow and expect the recovery to start then.
Insurance companies will always profit at the end of the day; ther not a gambling house or charity!
They lose one year; next year the customers pay for it.

DYOR



Except Alea aren't issuing any new hurricane related policies, are they? I guess they might gain fractionally from whatever uplift clauses were built into the rights they sold, but I don't imagine that will make any serious difference because some expectation of higher premiums will have been costed into the price the buyers already paid.

This parrot might not be dead yet, but its prospects for recovery are negligible and it can no longer fly. Its remaining function is to arrange its own funeral.

If you think there is money to be made from insurance companies that are selling hurricane policies, best choose one that is still doing so ;o)

[madmanc] 23/5/2006 00:24

Policies will be marked higher in the danger zones; i'm going long tomorrow and expect the recovery to start then.

Insurance companies will always profit at the end of the day; ther not a gambling house or charity!

They lose one year; next year the customers pay for it.

DYOR

[adeyberry] 22/5/2006 23:12

Splendid day!

[m.t.glass] 22/5/2006 20:05

From Bermuda -

Monday, May 22, 2006
Shares tumble on storm forecasts

By Lilla Zuill


Bermuda's publicly listed insurers saw their share prices move lower as markets closed on Friday.

A number likely lost ground as investors reacted to growing predictions that the 2006 hurricane season will see above average activity for the third year in a row.
Nine of the Island's insurers that trade on the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq lost ground on Friday, one remained unchanged and four advanced.

AccuWeather, a US-based weather forecaster, last week predicted three major hurricanes would hit the US in 2006 and said warmer Atlantic surface temperatures created a greater likelihood of storms travelling up the Eastern seaboard. Last year's storms caused the most costly damage in Florida and in areas surrounding the Gulf of Mexico.

AccuWeather's storm predictions, which generally mirror the predictions from other forecasters for an above-active hurricane season when it officially begins on June 1, may have fuelled already heightened investor concerns. Many investors got burned on insurance stocks last year, with some losing more than half their market value after the large losses. Most have regained some of the losses in the months since.

At least four of Bermuda's insurers have however floundered in the wake of 2006 losses. Alea, Rosemont, PXRe and Quanta are now either going up on the sales block or being put into run-off, a form of winding down an insurance company that allows claims to be met. At least three of the four can directly attribute their troubles to larger than expected hurricane losses.

Market losses sustained by Bermuda insurers this week were in line with losses sustained by the wider market. The KBW Insurance Index, which tracks the trading of 24 insurance companies active in the US and includes four Bermuda-based firms and designed to represent the price performance of the broader insurance market, lost 2.7 percent over the week.

Bermuda insurers Aspen Insurance Holdings Ltd., Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd., Platinum Underwriters, XL Capital, PXRe, RenaissanceRe and Montpelier Re were amongst those to see their shares close lower on Friday.

At least one of Bermuda's insurers, Max Re, may have lost ground on other news.
The Front Street-based reinsurer saw its share price fall seven cents to close at $22.72 after it was notified by the Nasdaq that its failure to make a timely quarterly filing put it in violation of listing requirements. The company is now at risk of a delisting.

Max Re hasn't filed its first quarter report pending the outcome of an already announced review of three finite risk contracts that may have been improperly accounted for. Max Re told investors it is considering a restatement of earnings up to $25 million over a several-year period, and intends to address Nasdaq's concerns in a hearing.

Montpelier, one of the reinsurers worst hit by storm claims last year, also saw its shares fall to a new low this week. The shares fell to $15 on Wednesday, an all-time low point, and a decline from a 52-week high of $36.35. By Friday, Montpelier had regained some ground, closing down 19 cents to $15.12 in composite trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

Investors may question holding insurance stocks if forecasters are right about 2006 hurricane prospects. The insurance industry sustained losses estimated in the region of $80 billion last year from deadly hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma, making it the most costly hurricane season on record. Bermuda insurers and reinsurers shouldered about $12 billion of the total bill.

While losses in 2005 were high, leaving the Bermuda market with an overall loss for the year, investors eagerly stepped up to help shore up balance sheets, pouring some $20 billion back into the sector. The sector likely attracted more capital because insurers can generally charge more for policies in the wake of a costly catastrophe like Katrina.

The Bermuda market ended 2005 with more capital than a year earlier. The influx of cash replenished the coffers of established companies as well as backing a wave of new reinsurers forming to take advantage of an expected rise in 2006 property-catastrophe, and offshore energy policies.

[tigrebone] 22/5/2006 07:56

nasty hurricane season forecasted. less revenue for alea?

[adeyberry] 10/5/2006 22:52

Splendid!!

Well it may take a while, but I see no reason why 60p shouldn't be on the cards again in the foreseeable..... nothing has changed here in my opinion, apart from the shorters closing daily pushing the price up to this giddy height!!

All just IMHO of course!

[6foot5] 10/5/2006 19:20

Adeyberry, yes present and correct. Usually lurking, but putting my hand up as it does seem quiet here... Expecting this to continue to drift.

[adeyberry] 10/5/2006 15:37

The hurricane season is almost upon us again, I wonder if that has anything to do with the nice drift.....

[adeyberry] 10/5/2006 12:49

Anyone else still in here? Increased short!

[adeyberry] 09/5/2006 11:35

Well, it looks like the buyers have disappeared now, is it time to increase one's short I wonder?!?!

[handycam] 02/5/2006 20:06

Reserve deterioration: The one area where Alea would be seeking to install confidence has turned out worse than expected. Prior year reserve additions were $123m against January guidance of $95m. Approx 60% of the deterioration relates to the 2000 to 2002 underwriting years with most of the balance attributable to earlier years. In our view this is cause for concern and suggests that the reserve situation has not yet stabilized.
> * Banking covenants: The group does not appear to be in breach of its banking covenants. Outstanding borrowings are a $150m term loan and a $50m bank revolver, which are subject to two covenants that require a minimum tangible net worth and a minimum debt to capitalisation ratio. Although the minimum levels are not disclosed, Alea was not in breach of these covenants at 31 December 2005, and it believes that it will be able to service the debt and meet the covenants until repayment becomes due in September 2007.
> * Strategy: The statement reiterates the strategy to pursue an aggressive run-off strategy.
> * Value and recommendation: We are raising our fair value target price by 5p to 65p to reflect the higher year end NTA figure. Our valuation methodology is to discount NTA by 17.5% for 5 years to reflect the estimated time needed to extinguish the insurance liabilities and return capital to shareholders. We have also assumed further reserve additions $50m.

[adeyberry] 27/4/2006 14:18

Well, I'm back in with a fairly large punt .......this dog can only rise for so long b4 reality bites!!!

EC... Were you wise enough to go long at 57p?!?!?

[effortless cool] 21/4/2006 06:48

I don't know why you're all so surprised at the recent strength - the smart money got out at 57p.

[randolph and mortime] 20/4/2006 13:34

My mate is out also just now.

[achilles] 18/4/2006 17:26

Looking at the chart I think this could do 100 like mfi. I closed ar 77 ouch!

[adeyberry] 18/4/2006 16:18

This is becoming a little tedious!!

[alexandrews] 14/4/2006 12:04

SHANKSAJ,

Come and join us on the BEAR threads 8-)

Alex

[shanksaj] 14/4/2006 11:05

I'm still out as well.

The irrational rise at MFI cost me 7k... ouch.

However, the time to sell any long positions in all stocks seems to be getting close as well, with the good recent run in the FTSE, fears over Iran, and subsequent fears of further oil price rises, being possible catalysts. A market correction may be getting close. Obviously, any overall market correction lower should be good for shorters. So who knows what's best to do??

Shorters take a look at Isoft. As usual, PSTDYRFY.

[paddyfool] 13/4/2006 19:45

Im out as the rise is irrational and there is unlikely to be bad/honest news in the near future. Good luck all.