Aldermore Share Discussion Threads

[juju44] 30/11/2011 08:41

yep, this is very unpredictable but its having a nice run for now

[arja] 30/11/2011 08:33

ALD is one of the few stocks up today and hope it holds and is reflected in oz price tomorrow for a change !

[divinausa1] 28/11/2011 07:37

Gold may hit $3,000 if US devalues dollar

[divinausa1] 28/11/2011 01:35

Although John Paulson, the billionaire hedge fund manager, may have cut his SPDR Gold Trust ETF holdings sharply last quarter, he is now reported also to have heavily increased holdings in some key gold stocks over the same period. Reports on the internet say he sharply increased his holdings in Agnico-Eagle, Barrick Gold, IAMGold, International Tower Hill, NovaGold and Randgold Resources.

Likewise in Q3 another mega investor, George Soros, who famously heavily reduced his gold holdings earlier in the year after saying gold is in a bubble has also been reported to have bought stock in Franco Nevada and International Tower Hill in the period.

The third big name investor who has been seen as picking up a major gold stock position, at least of a type, in Q3 is David Einhorn, Founder and President of Greenlight Capital, who more than doubled his holding in the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF to over 7 million shares. This ETF holds gold stocks in the main rather than gold bullion, its top holdings being in Barrick, Newmont, AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields and Silver Wheaton.

It's not necessarily that mega investors of the likes of Paulson, Soros and Einhorn are always right in their choices, but they haven't got where they are today without picking the best investment opportunities as they see them occurring. With the gold price looking to have settled in the current range of $1650-$1800, and many predicting it will go higher before the year end, the producing gold miners are going to continue to make huge quarterly profits and are thus set fair for record results this year. With a trend towards increasing their dividends at a time when fixed investment is paying virtually no interest, maybe Paulson, Soros and Einhorn are all making some smart, and potentially profitable, moves.

[divinausa1] 23/11/2011 22:47

Gold could help save the eurozone

[boadicea] 23/11/2011 16:19

Oz falling, UK rising!
There must be a limit to how far the price disparity between Oz and here can go.

Is it possible to buy in Oz and have the registration transferred to UK?

[divinausa1] 23/11/2011 06:33

Well ALD is cheap as chips....

[divinausa1] 23/11/2011 06:32

AngloGold targets aggressive growth, to spend $1.5bn by 2013



By: Henry Lazenby

22nd November 2011



TEXT SIZE






JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) – South Africa-based gold major AngloGold Ashanti on Tuesday said it had a "robust" project pipeline with more than a 100 projects on the cards. The top five of these would consume about 80% of the miner's capital expenditure.

AngloGold indicated that it planned to spend about $1.5-billion by 2013 on implementing new projects, with capital expenditure expected to taper off towards the end of 2015, as new projects come on line. It had traditionally underinvested in new capital projects, the company said in a presentation published on its website.

In South Africa, the miner would maintain its production of 1.7-million ounces of gold a year, and grow the incidental uranium production to two-million pounds a year by 2014. While it was looking to extract value from extra workdays negotiated with its local labour force, it said it needed to replace about 700 000 oz of production with new growth projects.

From its African operations outside South Africa, it planned to produce up to 2.3-million ounces of gold from new operations by 2015, with yearly production potential for three-million ounces by 2020.

AngloGold is undertaking projects in Guinea, Mali, Ghana, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Tanzania and Namibia. New growth projects would be fast-tracked, with specific focus on projects in the DRC and the Sadiola project, in Mali.

Meanwhile, the company said it would increase its yearly gold production in the Americas to 1.1-million ounces, as brownfield expansion projects in Argentina, Brazil and the US are completed. AngloGold expects to produce up to 1.9-million ounces of gold from the region by 2020, as the significant new projects in Colombia come on line.

In Australia, AngloGold expected to increase its yearly gold production to 600 000 oz, with the transition to undergound mining at its large Sunrise Dam project, and the completion of its Tropicana project expected to contribute more ounces.

The company is aiming at growing its production in South-East Asia and the Pacific Rim to one-million ounces a year, mainly through mergers and acquisitions.

[colin shakespeare] 19/11/2011 16:43

If you have an active interest in gold and, more importantly, gold mining and exploration stocks, events in the 1970s and early 1980s hold important lessons for us today. In this article we will look closely at these events, whilst attempting to demonstrate critical differences between now and then. Part 1 of this article deals with the economic backdrop for then and now and in Part 2 we present a set of interesting observations which we believe may help explain current price action and give clues to the future direction for exploration stocks.

[arja] 19/11/2011 15:03

and nice breakout on chart with better volume which augurs well and perhaps it might get to 190 !

[arja] 19/11/2011 14:00

it is odd boadicea. I bought at 255 on friday and disappointed to see it drift to close at 249. Hope it can match UK close on monday and put me in front ! Gold price no help though.

[boadicea] 18/11/2011 14:08

Clearly a much better demand for ALD in London than in Sydney.
Now about 15% above Oz close where it barely responded to yesterday's rise here.

Medusa executive explained that Oz institutions had been selling out to bank profits in MML and it looks like the same is happening here with the added inducement of ASX now only being a secondary listing.

I do think the 'natural' price without extraneous technical issues would be nearer (perhaps over) 200p. Eventually the Oz selling should abate and any excess stock migrate to London. There is no reason for a persistent differential of more than a penny or two.

[juju44] 18/11/2011 11:21

are we in for another cracking day

[divinausa1] 18/11/2011 07:05

Central bank gold buying at 40-year high

[boadicea] 17/11/2011 14:46

It looks like 2035415 sold to me but I may be misreading it.

Some of the 126p options seem to have expired already (31st Oct 2011) and others do so at end Nov and Dec respectively. (However, there are numerous typo's so I wouldn't take everything as correct.)

The 180p options expire in 2013.

The clue about coordinated action lies in a couple of lines at the top of the RNS -

"Each divestment of shares occurred as part of a structured process to facilitate the recent exercise of options. The total net increase in Director and PDMR holdings subsequent to the exercise of opions [sic] is 689,482 shares."

My quick calculation produced an increase of 300,172. Reading from the unformatted advfn page is difficult and I have probably missed something.

Have we ever had 5 consecutive days above 256p to trigger the 126p options and does it have to be in that zone at the time of exercise? It looks to me as if all 126p options (i.e. the various 2011 ones) are doa. Exercised options have presumably already gone and are not shown in the RNS.

Hastings, Torre, Terranova and House appear to have substantially reduced their holdings while Lowrie and Caruso have substantially increased.

A fully formatted version can be found here -

[davidblack] 17/11/2011 13:06

Year end in Oz is 30th June.

How many shares did these guys sell? I thought it was under 1m?

If so not a problem as Australian use share sales as income which they don't get clobbered on for tax purposes.

Why is it going up on such a bad day?

[divinausa1] 17/11/2011 12:50

well the market has this blue today on a very red day so something more to this i guess

[boadicea] 17/11/2011 08:53

juju - True!

But why would they all sell together without reason, or at least expectation, at a knock-down price? (Hence my tax question above.)

[boadicea] 17/11/2011 08:52

Is anyone here familiar with Australian tax law?
Is there an urgent financial imperative or circumstance requiring action before the end of this year?

It looks to me as if an institution might have struck a combined deal for a large coordinated block of shares at a bargain price.

If sold individually into the market the share price would have been trashed for months.
At least, it's now done and the sky hasn't fallen (yet).

[juju44] 17/11/2011 08:48

buyer doesnt have to tell them he has further plans

[boadicea] 17/11/2011 08:45

The problem with assuming it is a portent of imminent corporate action is that if news, currently known only to the board, is pending, then they should not be able to deal in the shares without special dispensation.

[dvsfm] 17/11/2011 08:41

what conclusions can be drawn from this?. Cant make up my mind whether its good or bad

[boadicea] 17/11/2011 08:40

First question: Who was (or were) the buyer(s)?
Next: Is it the fore-runner of a bigger deal?

If the latter, one assumes the sellers will be looked after in due course.

Would that be legal?

[boadicea] 17/11/2011 08:33

The recent strange behaviour of the share price must, one feels, be connected with the large off-market disposal of board interests, generally between 2/3 and 3/4 of their holdings, announced this morning.


Very strange and coordinated. What conclusions can be drawn?

[...and why did Lowrie and House get a lower price than the others?]