Aldermore Share Discussion Threads

[future financier] 15/12/2015 14:18

Just bought a few - target 250p

[aishah] 15/12/2015 10:58

Having looked through all the news and notes, I have added today under £2. dyor

[opodio] 15/12/2015 09:55

finger on buy button after director buy recently

[paleje] 15/12/2015 09:53

Barcap also downgraded PAG and OSB this morning so presumably it's the sector not us specifically although we got the biggest downgrade.

[geoff21] 15/12/2015 09:48

nurdin, short term just noise, medium term probably half way i.e. 267.5p, longer term 340.0p +. AIMO

[nurdin] 15/12/2015 09:26

who do you believe though...

[aishah] 15/12/2015 09:04

Big downgrade in target price by BarCap. tp=225p from 310p

[matt] 14/12/2015 22:57

JP Morgan Cazenove Reiterates Aldermore Group (LON:ALD) As Overweight; Has Price Target Of GBX 340.00

Read more:

[aishah] 14/12/2015 19:59

The continuous decline in price tells you that market does not like recent events and news. Chart looks terrible. imo,dyor

[future financier] 14/12/2015 17:08

The CML paper contains two graphs - one for mainstream and one for BTL and whilst the graphs refer to arrears rather than losses, I suspect the two are closely related. Arrears on mainstream - 1.3%, arrears on BTL - 0.6%. Arrears on BTL have been lower than on mainstream for every quarter bar 3 (in 2009) since 2008.

[mikeja] 14/12/2015 16:43

The FPC figures contain second mortgages on all properties whereas the CML figures are just for BTL. The CML says "It is difficult to conclude that the sector (BTL)is more exposed to default risks than any other mortgage sub sector ".

[future financier] 14/12/2015 15:17

AISHAH - just done a bit more research having read DT article about the risk weighting of BTL assets - it is deeply worrying that the Governor of the BoE is talking absolute nonsense when the FPC states that "Since 2010, rates of credit loss on buy-to-let loans in the United Kingdom had been around twice those incurred on lending to owner-occupiers". Actual figures from Council of Mortgage Lenders hxxps://www.cml.org.uk/.../cml.../150309-cml-response-to-bis-revisions-to-standardised-risk-weights-v.1.pdf (search for "CML loss ratio" in google) show BTL loss ratios to be around HALF those for residential mortgages.

It is clear therefore that the BTL industry is up against both a Government and a Regulator that want to squash them using blatantly false information. This is now all about populist policies and not about rational and fair argument. In these circumstances it is hard to be optimistic about the sector.

[paleje] 14/12/2015 14:47

Reddave, exactly, although we can't always rely on directors' transactions to reflect their true thinking in this case I think they do. It's not that Osborne is out to kill the letting market, he isn't, PRS sector is strong and applauded by govt and local govt, witness GRI, SGM and the likes. Seems to me he just wants to stop 'irresponsible' getting out of hand.

This will all steady down I hope and ALD should issue some kind of statement when things are a bit calmer clarifying their position and whether the changes and ongoing discussions are causing them to consider modifying their strategy or forecasts.

[future financier] 14/12/2015 14:18

Mike - I would be surprised if Ahuja's properties are in a limited co. Prior to July there was a fine balance between direct holding (more Income Tax on profit) vs. Limited Company (double tax on cash taken out of business). Certainly the Wilson's (with 1000+) properties did not use a limited company. Obviously very different now (or rather from 2020 onwards).

[reddave999] 14/12/2015 14:01

If things were as bad as the press say, then why are the directors happy to buy.

[mikeja] 14/12/2015 13:55

Don't tell me Ahuja's properties are not held in a corporate envelope. Corporation tax falling like a stone,paying £1.20 for every £ he earns,pull the other one.

[aishah] 14/12/2015 10:58

Many of Britain’s biggest buy-to-let landlords are planning to sell off their homes, blaming George Osborne for effectively raising their tax rate to more than 100%. Some warn interest rate rises will tip them into bankruptcy.

Ajay Ahuja, 43, who owns 200 properties – plus two Bentleys and his own 7,000 sq ft house in Cambridgeshire – says he has already begun to sell some of his homes: “Osborne is getting what he wants. He is forcing me to sell.”

The author of The Buy To Let Bible, which has sold more than 100,000 copies, Ahuja claims that planned changes to the taxation of buy to let to be phased in between 2017 and 2020 could leave him paying £1.20 in tax for every £1 he earns. In a second blow to landlords, the chancellor raised stamp duty on buy-to-let homes by 3% in the autumn statement, which will add £5,250 to the bill when buying a £175,000 property.

Last week the Bank of England threatened a clampdown on lending to landlords amid fears that a mass sell-off of buy-to-let properties could prompt a renewed financial crisis. In a report on the financial stability of the UK it warned that six out of 10 buy-to-let landlords could be vulnerable if interest rates rise by 3%.

This week Britain’s most controversial major landlord, Fergus Wilson, sold his property empire of around 900 homes in Kent for £250m, saying “the boom days are over” – although he reckons new investors can still make money.

[nurdin] 14/12/2015 10:40

Smiliar article in MoS

[paleje] 14/12/2015 10:05

Yesterdays Sunday Times article 'Osborne in new blitz on buy-to-let lending' wouldn't have done us much good, the suspicion being there could be more measures in the pipeline.

[future financier] 14/12/2015 09:49

Just a pity that the Regulators appear to be as ill informed as the populist press - just need to look at Paragon's loss ratio through the financial crisis and house price collapse of 2008 to realise that a well managed BTL operation carries a much lower risk of losses than does a residential owner occupier lender.

[dlku] 14/12/2015 09:24

OSB bouncing back

[nurdin] 11/12/2015 16:19

Sorry mike just back from a shopping trip...dont know which is worse,shopping or seeing quite a few of my holdings collapse! Anyway I hope your question has been answered now.I got my info from a company analyst.Storm in a tea cup ...

[paleje] 11/12/2015 16:10

If it's a discussion document, which might or might not result in changes, but in any case would be several years from now, it gives management time to prepare. I doubt if management would have been unaware of this possibility yet in the last fortnight have spent between them ~£400k buying shares. I don't think they'd do that if they weren't confident they could cope without abandoning their growth plans. They may need to adapt their strategy to achieve that growth but that's what management do.

[mikeja] 11/12/2015 16:00

ALD down 8%,PAG down 3%,makes no sense at all. Bt a few more at 208.