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Aldermore Share Discussion Threads
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|I agree short positions put off investors who always believe someone knows something they don't. IC made it one of their shares of the week yesterday, clearly their team aren't put off but then again they probably don't buy shares:)
Management expects to pay a maiden dividend during its 2017 financial year. What's more, Aldermore's shares are trading at just 1.2 times its forecast net tangible assets, which looks too low compared with peers such as Shawbrook on 1.8 times, OneSavings Bank on 1.9 times and Virgin Money on 1.3 times. Buy.
|I still find it odd that ever since the IPO there has been an unchanged reported short interest of around 10% of the outstanding.
All stocks have some short interest but this level keeps it in the most shorted category and would influence any investment decision.
Actual Short interest has increased to 11.66% (24mn shares) while Virgin Money VM.L has fallen to 8.31%
The average daily volume has been falling of late too
ALD 2016 is around 570,000
- It would take 40 days and night to cover this amount.
This was the situation in December 2015:
ALDERMORE 10.32% short vs FCA Notified: zero. Thought it might be an error but VM. is up about the same level of 10% - this level is unchanged for the whole of this year.
VM average volume 700,000 steady for year
ALD average volume 1wk 3.5m 1mth 1.5m year 700,000|
|bouncing off support|
|At eight years earnings and the ridiculous threshold set by GO on 8 July last year, I can see corporate activity as the challengers are making profitable but limited inroads into the target addressable market. FY16 at a P/E ratio a tad more friendly than 8 yrs gives me 3 quid|
|A decent divi will certainly help and possibly lift the share price Even with slower growth the existing loan book will deliver solid eps returns, assuming there's no significant reduction in loans due to mortgage maturity. There's still a number of people who i know adding to their BTL portfolio's. If i wasn't retired i'd be considering adding to my own.
Market to book ratio at PAG is now below 1. Unless this is a value trap then I'm inclined to believe the whole challenger bank sector is well undervalued.
|I agree Woody - when a growth company has a P/E of around 8 either this represents a screaming opportunity or there are major problems that the market has concerns about. There is no doubt that ALD senior management has some of the greed and delusions that we all know and love in the major banks, and it has been severely weakened by certain events (departures, side-linings and promotions) over the last year, but they don't have massive hidden legacy losses or exposures. Furthermore, despite the best efforts of one G Osborne of 11 Downing Street, ALD will continue to grow at a reasonable (but probably reduced) rate.
My gut feeling is that 240 - 250p is about right for now - but this could increase if only the directors would have the sense to announce a date and amount for a maiden dividend.|
|be greedy when everyone is fearful, take the contrarian view
|I gave up on these sometime ago.|
|Where is the heading now?|
|No idea - although I do know that OSB is (unsurprisingly) having its busiest day ever!
Probably just a good day to top up on ALD.|
|Can anyone shed any light on why we are 6% down when OSB is 1% up?|
|BTL 'new' guidelines outlined, for further detail see
|Challenger banks breathe sigh of relief over buy-to-let changes
The Bank of England has today revealed plans to clamp down on the buy-to-let market, setting out strict new rules for banks underwriting buy-to-let mortgage contracts.
"Investec’s Ian Gordon told City A.M. there has been a “sigh of relief at the largely sensible and pragmatic approach” by the Bank to raise the underwriting standards of a minority of banks, noting that publicly-traded specialist lenders Aldermore, OneSavingsBank, Shawbrook and Virgin Money already comply with the new rules."
|ALD should not be too badly affected by this - just annoying that BoE policymaking is based on fundamentally wrong data concerning BTL mortgage default losses (they believe it has double the loss rate of normal residential mortgages when in fact it is closer to half the loss rate).|
|Uptrend since 11th Feb still n place after pullback unlike general mkt. Bit of resistance at 248|
|Good to know. I was thinking about doing the same.|
|Opened an account with Aldermore this week.
Was very impressed with the ease of use of their platform and their interest rates on their savings products.
Will be recommending to friends for their savings and also buying more stock in the near future.|
|Can anyone confirm if the petition to trash the extra tax is still on?|
|The chart looks encouraging too.|
|UK challenger banks: OneSavings Bank, Aldermore, Shawbrook among the lenders seeing a bounce-back
Challenger banks are bouncing back after months of share price weakness, with the markets rewarding smaller listed lenders for posting double-digit increases in profits, lending and customer numbers.
|So Mr OSborn
Are you going to ramp up the threshold on the additional tax on challenger banks up to £200m from £25m ??|
|JP Morgan reiterate OVERWEIGHT and set 275p target (270p previously)|
Wonder if SOF who hold 44.6% (111m) of the equity are looking to sell more. They last sold 25m in November with a lock-up period of 90 days thereafter.|
|Adding to Glasshalfull post above, IC made SHAW a share of the week last night choosing them above ALD which was mentioned, they had following numbers for SHAW, with divis pencilled in:-
Year Rev Pretax EPS Divi
2013 60 16 5.1 nil
2014 112 45 13.8 nil
2015 165 68 21.0 nil
2016* 213 110 32.2 4.0
2017* 263 146 42.1 12.1