AIR Partner Share Discussion Threads

[speedsgh] 03/10/2014 11:30

Air Partner reaches for the skies with Help for Heroes' flight -

[lbo] 25/9/2014 09:57

Is the Dividend just a distraction? They have a habit of doing that when they are in trouble and did something similar which resulted in an eventual dividend cut in 2010. The fall in non-JetCard cash of GBP4.6m to GBP6.1m (2013: GBP10.7m) is worrying and is it prudent to increase the dividend when they admit themselves that limited visibility and late bookings make forecasting hard at Air Partner very difficult.And when you exclude the JetCard cash the forward multiple is still quite high for a business that in thier own words "operates in a market that has limited visibility"

Just looking at the Broker Liberum forecasts of adjusted pre-tax profit of £2.4 million this year, giving adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 21.4p, rising to £3 million and 20.9p in 2016, we can see the dividends are not covered and this £6m in cash is going to fall further and at a time when their is talk of rising interest rates next year in USA and UK.

Forecasts

31-Jan-15 EPS 15.51p PE 21.8 DIV 22.05p
31-Jan-16 EPS 19.34p PE 17.5 DIV 24.26p

[topvest] 23/9/2014 21:02

Results OK i thought. Encouraging that the dividend was still increased by 10% and that H2 has started well.

[lbo] 23/9/2014 11:17

REVENUE PLUMMETS AT AIR PARTNER

[speedsgh] 27/8/2014 13:11

A nice bit of PR here for AIP although it does appear to be from a
few months ago...

Air Partner offers dream helicopter charter over the London -
HTTP://youtu.be/02U_Q0K0BTg

[lbo] 27/8/2014 12:53

No director purchases after the last profit warning! Would not inspire confidence and suggests more bad news to come

[superstardj] 27/8/2014 11:37

Further to post 436, this today from AIP:

"Since the crisis started, Air Partner has been tasked with
maintaining supplies of shelters, emergency food, water treatment
and water storage units to the military aircraft which are flying
missions to air drop these supplies into the region. In addition,
Air Partner has arranged for the delivery of essential kit and
specially adapted vehicles for use in dangerous situations to
ensure aid workers can work quickly and safely on the ground.

Over the past two weeks, Air Partner has chartered 9 flights; 6
from the UAE, one from Cyprus and two from East Midlands to Iraq
using Airbus A300 and A310 aircraft. The team also chartered
Douglas MD11F, Iluyshin 76 and Antonov 12 aircraft to deliver goods
from the UK and Dubai into the air operations hub in Cyprus used by
the Royal Air Force. Since 10 August, Air Partner has now delivered
over 400 tonnes of aid to Iraq, with this figure expected to
increase in the coming days with continuing requests.

Air Partner has also received multiple requests for evacuations out
of Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s Kurdistan region. On 9
August, the Group chartered an Embraer Legacy 650 long-range jet,
on behalf of a corporate client, to evacuate 13 passengers from
Erbil to Amman in Jordan, and a Boeing 737-300 to transport 39
further passengers from Erbil to Istanbul in Turkey."

Also last week it issued the following press release about
JetCard:

"Air Partner, the leading provider of aviation services to
governments, corporates and HNWIs has seen strong summer sales
growth in its UK based JetCard product.

The UK JetCard team has sold more than £5 million of cards in
the first six months of the year as Britain’s jet set take to
the skies again. JetCards, like Oyster cards, hold prepaid travel
credits but for use on private jets. The highest value JetCard sold
in the period had £1 million of prepaid flying hours
registered on it, and the average value was £200,000.

Commenting on UK JetCard sales, Paul Richardson, Air
Partner’s Director for Private Jets said, “This is over
double the amount we sold for the entire year last year - twice the
amount in half the time. We’ve invested a lot in getting our
product right and it’s great to see such a positive response
from clients.”

In addition to improved sales, Air Partner’s JetCard renewals
have also performed well with 53 UK JetCard renewals in the first 6
months of the financial year, compared with 61 renewals for the
whole of the prior 12 month period. Richardson commented, “In
just six months we are only eight JetCard renewals short of the
total we achieved in the whole of the last 12 months. There is a
tremendous team effort being put in from the UK Sales and UK
JetCard teams, which is leading to some very impressive
results.”

[speedsgh] 22/8/2014 10:09

Half-year financial results due on 23/9

[superstardj] 11/8/2014 16:48

This humanitarian disaster unfolding in Iraq will probably mean evacuation flights and business for AIP. It's an ill wind etc.

[lbo] 31/7/2014 12:58

The Diverse Income Trust Plc now dumping shares also! They must think the Dividend is not safe also

[lbo] 31/7/2014 08:28

What is it they say about profit warnings coming in 3's!

[djderry] 30/7/2014 20:54

Or,as Ben Graham put it so memorably in 'The Intelligent Investor':'If the reason people invest is to make money,then in seeking advice they are asking others to tell them how to make money.That idea has some element of naivete.'Classic!

[djderry] 29/7/2014 22:12

Ok,here's the simple version: Buy these shares because they're going up,lots of 'upside potential',oh,hold on a moment,they're going down,scrub that advice,eh.. if you did what I told you,you'd have doubled your money ,ok, I forgot to tell you to get out,hold on,oh no,don't hold SELL!!!,in the future this share will either go up,er,or down,or perhaps stay as it is! I think a career as a columnist with the IC beckons!

[jerc] 29/7/2014 09:18

SIMON THOMSON I.C article.........

" One of my top share picks last year, Air Partner (AIP: 370p), a provider of aviation services to industry, commerce, governments and private individuals worldwide, has issued a major profit warning.

The damage has been caused by the company's commercial jet operation which is dependent on ad-hoc projects such as disaster relief or emergency evacuation flights. An absence of such business for its larger jets since the annual meeting in early June has led to a profit shortfall. This is despite the fact the company's private jet operation continues to flourish and trading in the freight business is recovering, albeit from a low base. So, even though margins have improved, reflecting the higher contribution from the private jet operation in the business mix, and costs has been kept in check, the underperformance of the commercial jet business means that analysts at Liberum Capital have slashed their revenue estimates for the current financial year to the end of January 2015.

The broker now predicts revenues of £177m, down from £224m in the prior year, to produce pre-tax profit of £2.4m, a sizeable decline from the previous estimate of £4.4m. On that basis, expect adjusted EPS of 15.5p, almost half the level reported in the previous fiscal year. It would also appear that there is little upside to these downgraded estimates since the second half is the traditionally weaker period. That alone tempers my enthusiasm even though Air Partner's board has announced a 10 per cent rise in the half-year dividend to 6.66p a share for the six months to the end of July 2014. Liberum is pencilling in an uncovered full-year payout of 22.1p a share for the 12 months to the end of January 2014, a dividend I expect to be declared since the company is sitting on a £19m cash pile, including £11m held as deposits from Jetcard customers. Sales of Jetcard have been very strong, but are not recognised as revenue and profit until the customers actually take the flights and use the credit.

Excluding the Jetcard deposits, net cash equates to 78p a share, so on a cash-adjusted basis the forward PE ratio is 19 with the shares trading on a bid-offer spread of 356p to 370p. Factoring in the whole of the company's cash pile – equating to half of Air Parner's market capitalisation of £38m – the prospective PE ratio is 12. True, the earnings multiple is high only because earnings are depressed, and a prospective yield of 6 per cent is supportive. That said, the company has to eat into the cash pile to make the payout as it will not be covered by cash flow given the aforementioned profit shortfall. Again this tempers my enthusiasm, as does the return of volatility of earnings.

So having seen Air Partner's shares take-off and double within 12 months after I recommended buying at 310p ('A share ready to take off', 7 Jan 2013), I am less confident on prospects now. In my last update three months ago when the price was 500p ('Taking a watching brief', 14 Apr 2014), I noted: "I feel there is a very reasonable chance of further gains over the remainder of this year, assuming of course the tailwinds driving the business prove as favourable as they have been." Unfortunately, those tailwinds have changed direction and the business is facing some strong headwinds in its commercial division. Moreover, I concluded at the time: "Risk-averse investors may wish to adopt a watching brief until the share price has confirmed a low is in place and that the downward drift is finally over, but on an eight-month basis I can see far more upside than downside."

I would still adopt a watching brief as I feel that the shares could drift lower in the coming months. Liberum is less confident too, having slashed its target price from 700p to 400p and moved its recommendation from 'buy' to 'hold'. In the circumstances, if you followed my previous advice I believe it's best to bail out before the shares lose any more altitude. Sell. "

[sleepy] 29/7/2014 09:11

Allowing for tax sub £2?

[lbo] 28/7/2014 23:51

Liberum have slashed FY forecast to £2.4m so with 10.25m shares in issue and applying a pe of 10x is sub £2.50 per share

[djderry] 28/7/2014 19:55

John Lee will not be happy.

[lbo] 28/7/2014 13:55

Air Partner Reports Weaker-than-expected Trading, Sees Flat H2; Stock Down

[brucie5] 28/7/2014 13:36

It seems to be the case that almost any small cap that's doubled (or more) over last 12 months is being taken down. Not sure I'd be interested in these much above £3.

[jerc] 28/7/2014 13:13

Even the I.C's long-term supporter,Simon Thomson,has changed his stance to "sell" in an online article today. With a traditionally weaker 2nd half he thinks they'll just drift down further.

[goliard] 28/7/2014 12:11

Unfortunately the share price swings here mean that the dividend isn't really much of a reason to hold as its value is tiny compared to capital value movements. Sold here last year at about 400p and then watched it rise up to 600p, but looks like I might get back in again, hopefully sub 300p and ideally at 250p.

For anyone interested in the sector, I moved into HGR8 after I sold here and it still feels like better value with strong growth still coming through and less exposure to commercial rental risks.

[topvest] 28/7/2014 11:40

Rubbish. A bit disappointing, but their revenue streams are volatile. H2 also looks better. Dividend still being increased ans supports the valuation. I will continue to hold.

[sanks] 28/7/2014 10:42

Chart looks sub £1.70...Sheila told me last night