Air Music&Media Share Discussion Threads

[philjeans] 14/7/2008 12:43

.....hey presto, look who's got 10%!

Interesting.

[liarspoker] 13/7/2008 16:37

Fairly boring race so far Quotes.

Wait till they get to Alpe-d'Huez. :O)

[8trader] 13/7/2008 16:18

Liarspoker.



His odds tumbled today which i can only guess is amateur betfair
punters chasing him after his attack, to go from 60/1 to as low
as 4/1 when he won the stage and scalped around 90 seconds from
the fancied runners is a major over-reaction and i laid off my
entire bet on him at 5/1 and i will look to back him back at least
double the odds which has almost happened now, book your day in
front of the Eurosport TV a week Wednesday for the big stage !

[crawford] 12/7/2008 19:05

Aleman,
I agree, at least this was one of my best performing stocks yesterday :-)

O/T SDV and SHRS - very disappointing to see the drop.

[aleman] 12/7/2008 17:09

Just come back from holiday to find my smallcap portfolio annihilated apart from this one. Nice results and I'm pleased to see the disgreement between Long and the board seems to have resolved itself with the mooted restructuring of the balance sheet in order to pay a dividend. (This is quite common amongst turnaround companies and is nothing to worry about so is very good news.) I know many shares with debt have been sold down to basket-case ratings but fail to see why one that now has cash to distribute should be in the same class.

[jeff h] 10/7/2008 08:52

goonertone - thought they looked at forecast discounted future cash flows to
come to a conclusion as to whether goodwill was impaired or not.

share price seem to be going with a 'conservative' £5m pre tax profit for 2009:-

"Trading at 2.5 times March 2009 earnings estimates, our target price of 100p on a conservative PBT estimate of 5 million pounds compared to 5.7 million pounds to March 2008, Air Music and Media looks extremely appealing," argued broker Seymour Pierce.

[goonertone] 10/7/2008 08:29

Having reread the results there are a couple of negative points but a miriad of positive points to be gleaned. However, I won't bother listing them out here or doing my calculation of value etc as you can all see the figures without my help(that doesn't mean I wont at a later stage).

What I did want to touch on and ask about is the new IFRS rules . As far as I am aware (I am an accountant but no longer practising in that type of enviroment) the new rules change it from amortising the goodwill over its economic useful life to doing an annual review of the value of that goodwill.

Does this effectively mean that the carrying value of goodwill in a business is the companys view of the current value of the business it acquired over and above the net assets it purchased that are stilll identifiable?

In this case it would imply that the boards current view is that the distrbution business they purchased which is MBL(now effectively the major part of AMU)is worth £17million + net assets.

This would suggest therfore that the board value the busines at £23mill plus (as they would have had to be conservative in their valuation of goodwill)or £1.34 a share and the probable reason why the offer talks ended.

Any views?

Gt

[8trader] 09/7/2008 23:42

One conclusion yet again from todays results :

Amu is still the cheapest stock on the entire market on fundamentals.

And the scary thing is they are going to get better as the cash position
gets higher towards the market cap.

Something has to give here, i wonder what happened with the bid talks, even
in a dire market and after reading todays numbers a fair price for a bid
would have to be at least 150p.

[8trader] 09/7/2008 18:24

Liarspoker.

[chancer6] 09/7/2008 17:45

No interest whatsoever....abandoned quietly dogs like UVEL and now ramping these 8trader...bad boy. IMO big falls coming on lack of interest soon.

[8trader] 09/7/2008 14:17

17 days !

I'm still waiting for my reply after 3 months !

[edmundshaw] 09/7/2008 14:15

Well, an interim dividend of around 1.5p to 2p should be achievable from cash quite easily, assuming the restructuring can be voted on in good time; the next final dividend would not need to be announced till next year, with payment in, perhaps, September. So plenty of time to look at 2008 Xmas trading and subsequent share price, decide on the level of dividend. From that point of view, the reply by Alex Sorrell does not conflict with the chairman's statement...

Personally, I'd like to see a special dividend to current holders, but that may conflict with cash requirements unless the insurance situation improves. But, given continued good trading, a 5p or 6p full year dividend would be easily affordable and might be a good level to start with (and with some kind of share price rerating, that would represent a sensible yield that would reward shareholders and support the sp).

[tanners] 09/7/2008 13:59

Interesting change in policy from when Alex Sorrell replied to my E Mail in February regarding divdend policy:

The impact of the insured limits offered by our suppliers, backed by their credit insurers was and remains significant. The position adopted by the credit insurers is not improving given general market sentiment and I'm not expecting a markedly improved position going in to the next Christmas trading period. This has an impact on the potential for paying dividends, certainly in the short term.

A good sign that within 4 months their cash position has improved sufficiently to now be proposing the necessary restructuring to enable them to pay a dividend.

PS Can't say I'm overly upset to see Sorrell go - he took 17 days to reply to my E mail - by contrast Peter Cowgill replied he same day when I E mailed them again in June!

[goonertone] 09/7/2008 13:35

It wouls seem that Seymour Pierce have reiterated their buy reccomendation with a £1.00 price target but i cant't see any new forecasts.

GT

[miamisteve] 09/7/2008 10:22

Net tangible assets now at £6m

[jockblue] 09/7/2008 10:09

It's worth adding to estseon's post on goodwill that under UK accounting rules, the value of goodwill did not need to reviewed every year, and would be amortised over its useful life (usually 20+ years), whereas International Accounting Standards require you to revisit this every year.

Given most people look at Net assets and remove intangibles such as goodwill to get to a true value of the business, I don't think it really matters, other than the divided effect which they're addressing.

I've met and worked with Alex Sorrell when he was with PwC and he was a good bloke. I suspect that if the takeover talks had amounted to anything, he saw a gap coming up and wanted to make use of it - the talks terminating probably didn't change his mind.....cant see anything suspicious about it.

Cheers
jb

[tanners] 09/7/2008 09:44

Blimey, everything we could have hoped for plus more imo!

Goonertone and estseon have answered the accounting queries capably - the important thing to rememeer here is that niether of these are in anyway negatives but merely actions required to satisfy accounting rules.

The bottom line is that this is a highly cash generative business that is still cheap as chips......but the best part is that so far the business is has showed itself to be unaffected by the all the current woes affecting a large part of the retail economy.

[davidosh] 09/7/2008 09:37

Nickcduk..My thoughts entirely. I would be surprised if an MBO does not come once they can raise the funding. At these levels they would be mad not to be considering it. So the future either holds a big divi or MBO at a £1 before we get one !! Mmmm

[nickcduk] 09/7/2008 09:29

Obviously not too much buying interest still but will look to add when excitement abates. I think AMU are likely to be in a prime position to pick up business from other companies that will undoubtedly run into trouble in the coming months. I would imagine once credit markets normalise sometime in 2009 we will get a bid from management. At that point the company will have about 8-9m in cash and the directors won't have to borrow much more to fund the bid. In the meantime they just need to continue delivering as they are.

[philjeans] 09/7/2008 09:26

Credit crunch, recession and housing losses may come and go - AMU I will hold for a very long time!

Brilliant figures - massive underpricing by the market here.