African Copper Share Discussion Threads

[p1ncer] 12/3/2012 14:13

Well it's been two weeks since they anounced that ACU is effectively up for sale.
So far the share price has been eratic, but we live in eratic times.
Don't know how long the process takes, but hopefully they have had a few sniffs of interest.

Copper price strong, stocks now below 280k tonnes, all of which makes ACU a good buy for someone.

[feethak2] 07/3/2012 11:13

i think ACU has held up well, certainly better than GKP or XEL.

ZCI will want as much as they can get for ACU, whatever that turns out to be.

You might see a profit out of this yet.

[outsourcer] 07/3/2012 10:38

this doesn't look like the movement of a share price where anything other than a bad outcome is going to happen, wish I could be more positive but can't see this ending well

[feethak2] 06/3/2012 12:53

Interesting information p1ncer.

Shows the potential value here, hopefully ZCI get a good price. The fact we have such a large majority shareholder, could work for us, in that they can negotiate as a single entity, rather than getting approval from different shareholders.

Of course it also means we won't get a say in any decision, though I would have thought in law they would have to get fair value.

They will also want to maximise the return on their investment.

Hopefully we won't have too long to wait to find out.

GLA

[p1ncer] 06/3/2012 12:24

Taken from an RNS in 2004

"ACA Howe, as independent geological and mining consultants, have put a fair market value for Dukwe and Matsitama in the range of $128 million to $142 million, (approximately #70-78m @ $1.84/#), using a copper price of $1.00 per pound"

$142m at $1.00 per pound, against a current price of $3.7 per pound equates to $525.4m!!!

[p1ncer] 06/3/2012 12:17

"We anticipate being able to maintain production above 30,000 tonnes of copper per year beyond 2012 by integrating an underground mine into Mowana," chief executive Joe Hamilton said"

So they reckon they can get 30k tonnes per year just from Mowena.

Again things have changed since these figures where published, but the Copper is still there!!

[p1ncer] 06/3/2012 12:15

Taken from an RNS in 2008

"African Copper PLC said it expects production at its Mowana mine in Botswana to grow to 29,000 tonnes of copper in 2012 from 5,500 tonnes in 2008 after reviewing the operating parameters"

Now obviously they are behind schedule, but this has been due to the issues they have addressed, and continue to do so.

However it shows the potential, they will be mining 29,000 tonnes from Mowena alone, at some point, 29,000 x £8.500 per tonne is a huge amount of money. (£246m p/a!!!

With costs dropping "it expects the cash costs of production to drop to 1.49 usd/lb from 2.48 usd/lb in the period to 2012."

Obviously these are historical figures, and some things have changed, but it does shows the massive potential of ACU, and if ZCI don't get good value, which in my book should be a bare minimum of $200m, they should keep ACU until they are offered a satisfactory figure.

[p1ncer] 06/3/2012 11:56

Taken from an RNS in 2007

African Copper PLC said its Thakadu copper-silver project in Botswana has an estimated indicated resource of 178.7 mln pounds of copper, according to an independent estimate.

Which works out at £679m!! Obviously minus minig costs

The project has an indicated resource of 4.715 mln tonnes grading 1.72 pct copper, and an inferred resource of 0.961 mln tonnes grading 1.29 pct copper (27.37 mln pounds of copper). It also holds an indicated 1.88 mln ounces

Which at $34.18 oz works out at $64.25m

remember this doesn't include Mowena, or any other resources discovered.

If ZCI don't get a good price for ACU I am more than happy to wait for production to make a profit, which could be next set of results, as the profits will be huge.

[p1ncer] 06/3/2012 10:21

Copper stocks continue to fall, if they keep going at this rate they will be down 50% in six months.

If stocks fall, prices will remain very strong, which will make ACU an even more attractive proposition.

Aside from any financial interest I am fascinated to see what price ACU, as it will give us a benchmark price for other copper stocks.

[p1ncer] 05/3/2012 15:09

I think they expect to produce 20k toones p/a from Mowena alone over the next five years.

Add Thakuda to that and that should give another 10k.

Plus deep mining and other prospective areas, if Anvil is worth $1.3b that would make us worth $600m.

I am not saying we will get $600m, (though you never know) just that it should be a huge premium to the current share price (hopefully)

[p1ncer] 05/3/2012 14:12

I am sure I read a long while ago that ACU would like to mine 30k tonnes p/a which would make us half the size of Anvil.

But I would be very happy with anything near those kind of figures.

Certainly shows the £20m to be a very silly market cap

[feethak2] 05/3/2012 13:52

Maybe thats why ZCI have decided to sell.

They think they can get that kind of price for ACU.

[feethak2] 05/3/2012 13:49

1/3rd of $1.33b = $433m

I would be happy with $433m, even Outsourcer would be happy with $433m!!

GLA

[p1ncer] 05/3/2012 13:00

very interesting info copied from another board.

from zcifan, but interesting nonethe less

1.33Bdoll for a mine let's say 3 times bigger than ACU but in Congo !

When I read that I wonder how ACU might be sold less than 200M$



On February 17, 2012, Minmetals Resources Ltd. (HKSE 1208), a subsidiary of China Minmetals Corporation, announced that it acquired over 90% of the shares in Anvil Mining Limited ("Anvil") on February 16. This marked the transfer of controlling right of Anvil and the successful acquisition for Anvil. This also marked a solid step forward for its globalization. Through this move, Minmetals Resources incorporated its pure copper business into its diversified assets portfolio, promoting its steady development into a global mining company.

The acquisition involved a total of C$ 1.33 billion, or C$8.00 per share. After the acquisition, the production capacity of electrolytic copper of Minmetals Resources will increase by 60,000 tons annually, or 60 percent. In addition, there will be a considerable increase in its cooper reserves. Afterwards, Minmetals Resources will have 100% of the shares in Anvil through compulsory technical acquisition, and Anvil will complete its delisting from the Toronto Stock Exchange and the Australian Stock Exchange.

Headquartered in Africa, Anvil is a company engaged in the exploration and mining of basic metals. It held core assets, including 95% of the shares in Kinsevere Mine in Katanga Province, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and 70% of the shares in the Mutoshi Project, 14.5% of the shares in Mawson West Limited, and shares in many exploration assets in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The mineral assets of Anvil are mainly dominated by copper and cobalt. The acquisition will help increase Minmetals' global supply of copper and cobalt and will play a positive role in easing China's shortage in metal and mineral resources

[p1ncer] 02/3/2012 09:22

Copper prices looking very strong again.

Which is very good if you happen to be looking to sell a Copper company :-)

Could do with another tick up, to get us through 3p

[p1ncer] 01/3/2012 14:59

feethak2,

Who is to say the Rio Tinto or BHP won't be interested, if there are two or more interested parties then the final sale price could even be 8p+.

Especially of the Chinese get involved!

[feethak2] 01/3/2012 14:48

The share price could well go back up to 4p as people buy before ACU is sold.
it went to 4p on the back of the Glencore and Xstrata merger anouncement.

If we do get to 4p then an 8p sale price is entirely feasible.

mildred "If the mine was operating as expected they'd be earning an equivalent dividend yield of 20%/30%/40%/50%"

Actually you have hit the nail on the head there, and why I invested here in the first place, the potential revenue stream from ACU is huge. ZCI have spent a lot of time effort and money taking us this far, which is not a million miles away from turning a profit, and when the profits start rolling, they should be 20%/30%/40%/50% (or more!) of current market cap.

Which makes me very interested in what ZCI will get for ACU, if there is any justice in this world, then 8p should be the minimum.

Surely the Chinese amongst others would be very keen to get their hands on a company like ACU.

We will all find out in the not to distant future.

GLA

[p1ncer] 01/3/2012 13:18

I would suspect the share price will drift back up to 4p, as people buy in prior to the sale.

Been a few buys this morning, almost 3p to buy now.

[p1ncer] 01/3/2012 10:32

Mildred,
They are obviously selling for some reason, but you only have to look at the last few sets of results, to see production and revenue have increased dramatically.

And to say they wouldn't sell if they thought they could reach a certain cashflow is rediculous, if that was the case why would anyone sell a business.

There a lots of reasons businesses get sold, we don't know the reasons ZCI are selling, they might have there eye on another business and want to cash in who knows.

One thing I do know, revenues increased to $23.1 million, from $8.1 million for the corresponding period last year.

Also Copper produced in concentrate in the first half increased by 95 per
cent compared to the same period last year and by 48 per cent compared
to the second six months of the last fiscal year to 31 March 2011.

There is no reason to suspect they haven't increased these figures again.

ZCI will want as much as they possibly can from the sale, why wouldn't they.

Share prices across the AIM are depressed, the only way a lot of companies can realise thier value seems to be through a sale.

The shares went down, then to level, and are today up.

[mildred49] 29/2/2012 20:49

Think you guys are away with the fairies.

The first consideration of ZCI will be to get their cash back. IF it was all going swimmingly and they could make cashflow of £x million per annum do you think they'd ever consider selling ?

If the mine was operating as expected they'd be earning an equivalent dividend yield of 20%/30%/40%/50% but the reason the shares went down on the announcement was the market quite rightly assumes that is not the reality.

[feethak2] 29/2/2012 16:49

To be fair, I don't think 8p is an outragous amount, we have been higher than that, and a lot further back down the road.

I would love to see some recent production figures, if they have carried on the improvement then 8p could well be achievable.

The share price was 6p just over a year ago, and production has only increased since then.

Not sure what my average is, but I suspect somewhere between 3p and 4p.

[feethak2] 29/2/2012 16:36

I have been here pretty much as long as Outsourcer, and it has been a long road.

I still think the mine is a great asset long term, however looks like the end game near.

I would hope hope that ZCI secure a good price for them and us, but I think we will know soon enough.

Copper stocks have dropped by 40% ish in the last few months, which hopefully will make ACU that bit more desirable, which may have had some bearing on ZCI's decision to sell

Once it is sold, we can all move on, outsourcer, i hope you get some kind of profit out of all this wait.

GLA

[outsourcer] 29/2/2012 16:34

P1ncer, fingers crossed anyway, I have 700K shares at an average of 6p, so need something good

[p1ncer] 29/2/2012 16:15

Outsourcer,

yes I was, as it happens, not followed him enough to know his worth.

We will find out soon enough if he is the usual fantasist or not.

However the fundementals of ACU are not in significant, and are still worth a lot more than 2.6p.

MRI Trading valued ACU at $200m in 2008, and they really do know their copper.