African Barrick Gold Share Discussion Threads

[bookbroker] 01/7/2013 16:10

FMA - I would say that most people who are panicking about the price have already dumped, a $500 fall is enough for most of the yellow-bellies to walk the plank, bubble burst some time ago, and gold will always remain a store of value at the right price, where that is is anyone's guess but shorts now nearly at an all-time high, that might suggest the turn is near.

[full metal alchemist] 29/6/2013 12:27

More clutching at straws again. People who actually know what they are talking about are forecasting no profits from the main mines over the next few years. Yet apparently everything is fine and dandy? Secondly, there is no denying that the gold chart looks like a classic speculative bubble, this pattern carries infinitely more weight than some short term double bottom. Finally, miners stopping mining the stuff doesn't mean the price will go up, incase you didn't realise gold is never destroyed, the global supply of gold increases every year. It all comes down to whether lots of people want to sell or buy. If everyone is trying to offload their existing gold then it doesn't really matter if no one is mining it, the price will still go down. Despite what the gold bugs claim, people will already be offloading in their droves after the huge drop, and it won't take much more before full scale panic sets in. Please by all means though, tell yourself that this bubble will somehow be different from every other one throughout history.

[drewz] 29/6/2013 00:54

Somewhat naive to work on the assumption "they are unprofitable at under $1400/oz" surely.

That's a somewhat tendentious assumption of historic costs under a scenario of high gold prices.

When gold prices are weak, gold miners like ABG will cut back from mining low grade ore to mining much lower tonnages of selectively higher grade ore so mining costs per oz can be brought down substantially.

Of course, central overheads will need to be sharply cut back also. They've already made a lot of progress on that score.

And this means much reduced volumes of gold dore coming to market over coming months which will cause the price to rise in due course.

I expect gold, silver and PGM prices to rebound strongly sooner rather than later; maybe a double bottom through this summer then up up and away.

[kooba] 28/6/2013 23:03

Costs are being aggressively addressed with some details available ahead of the full strategic review due with the results next month.Cash costs are well below $1000 and will fall rather than rise in the current year.They are cutting capex exploration central overhead and staffing costs and are ahead of many producers who are only starting to react to the POG environment change now.They may well see a decline in their cash pile with gold at current levels but they are in a better position financially than many producers and I believe can tough it out...I also believe gold is still in a cyclical uptrend even after the rout ,we have seen a number of similar moves over the last decade or so "shaking the tree" before resuming its upward path...if this proves the case then ABG at current levels would prove a steal.Dyor still risky!

[full metal alchemist] 28/6/2013 18:39

They will soon start burning through that cash. They are unprofitable at under $1400/oz, combined with wage disputes across the whole of africa, it won't be long before some of the operations are mothballed. Now I see why barrick were so keen to list this as a separate entity. 60p target price.

[kooba] 28/6/2013 18:23

Stock trading at 99.4 pre auction unwound at 96..took advantage (hopefully) to get involved.Market cap £393m cash $401m obviously needs some recovery in PoG and some tough results of the ongoing strategic review but I think these levels offer some interesting leverage on gold and I personally see gold having a decent recovery before the end of this year as a safe haven again when everyone realises there is no recovery in US and Europe and China has an almighty credit crunch...may be bumpy but both ABG and gold are discounting a lot of negatives that might not pan out...here's hoping.

[kooba] 28/6/2013 08:12

Big difference between debt increasing and having net cash of $400m...admittedly very testing times for the industry but no point in ignoring a plus point here!

[robrah] 28/6/2013 06:38

With the price of gold hitting new lows that cant be improving.

[lebiche] 28/6/2013 05:32

Actually, ABG has a net cash position - worth around 30p a share at last count.

[kooba] 27/6/2013 14:56

Debt increasing?How much debt has It got exactly?

[robrah] 27/6/2013 07:52

Very close to hitting 100 p next 75p?most likely if pog does not improve.

[robrah] 25/6/2013 10:58

Lol price of gold .take over rejection.High profile investors dumped shares . The nz investment fund.Regularly missing targets production and revenue . Over shoot on cost . Perent company so at 22, year low. No significant potential for growth.May have to cut divi soon. Debt increasing .Do I really need to go on and on...

[lebiche] 25/6/2013 09:57

Where've you been?

[pjzloty] 25/6/2013 09:25

how come it was 'worth' 460 pps 6 months ago and now only 110??

[robrah] 21/6/2013 17:55

And if one really bets gold will be strong why not buy gold. As there is no promises thia will go higher with pog going higher.

[robrah] 21/6/2013 17:53

If pog become stable at 1200 .this could well head to 50 p .Ask your self just one question. How close the price of gold to their breakeven.Abg had have what you call strong control ove their coat of production.the parent company hitting multi year lows .If you really want to gamble try randgold .atleast they deliver.and they have much wider margin of safety .Not advice intended . Just an opinion.No advice intended

[jasonsharland] 21/6/2013 16:17

DREWZ, agree completely.

[jasonsharland] 21/6/2013 15:35

Thanks full metal for your views. I have bought in couple days ago. I like the hammer that seems to be developing today.

[full metal alchemist] 21/6/2013 11:16

Could easily see this hitting 100p or lower. Gold is likely to continue to head lower, plus this company is not profitable at under $1400/oz. There is already talk of companies elsewhere in Africa starting to mothball their operations as all they are doing is losing money, the same could easily happen here. Perhaps worth buying in if gold starts to make a recovery,but not until then.

[gleach23] 10/6/2013 21:58

no problem - I should add it's the June issue, pages 60-61

[jasonsharland] 10/6/2013 15:05

Thanks gleach, will take a good look later.