Afc Energy Share Discussion Threads

[traidemark] 15/3/2015 12:45

£8.89

I think that's conservative to be honest, theres not many opps like this around at the moment so as mentioned above day traders will be all over it in the mornings and shorters all over it in the afternoons but it will achieve value in the end.

[milliecusto] 15/3/2015 12:45

It will need to break 32p as that acted on resistance on friday,it may need further news to break 32p.

[bam_bam_matt] 15/3/2015 12:30

Great news thanks guys

[city chappy] 15/3/2015 12:24

bam bam you can put AFC into an ISA or SIPP.

[city chappy] 15/3/2015 12:23

tidy -
They are looking at non-recourse finance for the big Korean project i.e. secured loans not share issues.Obviously as the project progresses it will generate its own revenues for AFC. To reduce expenditure early projects will use joint ventures, licensing and technology sales.

They have done more testing on the 101 stack than you realise. Additionally its not just about going big or bigger but also about offering smaller systems to the market depending on customer needs and they will be caterng for all these needs.

9/3/2015:
"The 101 fuel cell stack was initially tested at AFC's UK facility in late February, then shipped to Germany, installed and has been operating continuously since 3 March 2015. AFC's technical team were highly encouraged that initial gas flow, thermal management and consistency of individual fuel cell performance across the 101 cells are in-line with expectations. The relative uniformity of fuel cell performance affirms the quality focus of AFC's increasingly automated manufacturing and production facilities.

Whilst the first successful 101 fuel cell stack trial demonstrates the operability of the fundamental building block of the KORE system, it also allows AFC to consider alternative products of varying capacities modularised at the size of the 101 cell cartridge, rather than a single focus on the previously scoped 240kW KORE system. In this context, AFC's market offering becomes increasingly flexible to meet the needs of smaller energy requirements (in integers of 10kWs). AFC is currently in discussions with potential customers and partners who are assessing opportunities sized at the single cartridge size which again widens AFC's possible market potential and commercialisation potential in the short term."

[43rick] 15/3/2015 12:07

I have it in my iii ISA.

[bam_bam_matt] 15/3/2015 12:05

Can you put this share in a Stocks and Shares ISA via Halifax say for example does anyone know?

Thanks

[tidy 2] 15/3/2015 11:41

Pond1 post in response to BumbleB In answering the questions put by BumbleB,1 Electrodes already proven to last more than one year.2 Proven that production in volume can be achieved via an automated process, which can obviously be multiplied many times as and when required.3 Proven over a year ago, that old electrodes can be recycled at end of life.4 Waste heat and pure water use proven in principal but not yet taken up by an end user, but this would be a bonus to the main aim.As to the comment re risks are that the technology does not work as anticipated, or that there are delays in getting it to work have all been answered in recent trials. We now have solid evidence and time lines.As to fresh funding required, possible but not necessaries fact as yet.The risk that customers could be slower than anticipated to take up the product, something I now doubt as I feel the queue by year end will be long.The stacks are still being tested and the 101 cell cells have still not been tested at full power yet and it has taken longer than expected to get to this stage, yes it has taken longer but it appears that the larger the stack, the better performance. Same surely applies to the Kore platform.As the final para states, they are working on removing the bottleneck between the extruder and robot.This time last year I would fully agree that the delays looked to be holding longer term progress back, but of late I feel that the company has the right balance as the worse thing now would be to get too far in advance of itself.Can't argue with BumbleB's post, just wanted to put my slant on things looking at the companies present position.

[tidy 2] 15/3/2015 11:39

Interesting posted by Domino2 on iii For the first time we have seen the company itself give indications of future investment potential rather than brokers notes.I have done 3 rough calculations for year end 2020 based on 1GW, $3billion book value and the 2012 broker note and none of them come out any less than £8.89 per share.Taking the estimated target book price of $3 billon in 6 years time and lets assume another funding round with total number of shares being 350 million and a conservative price to book ratio of 2 (Fuel Cell Energy P/B ratio is over 4) gives an share price of £11.43Peats report from 2012 gave a very conservative share price target of 80p but that was based on 90MW by 2020. 1GW would give an share price in the region of £8.89 but lots of things were unproven back in 2012 and the discount applied to Peat's estimate should be better 3 years later on.The 1GW estimate has to assume profit figures and a P/E ratio.Assuming 10% profit and P/E ratio of 8 and also assuming AFC only getting 40% of the full 1GW future contracts as per last weeks partner announcement for 50MW the share price would be approx. £12.Has anyone else done approx. calculations to see if I am in the right region.

[petewy] 15/3/2015 11:10

Go on by all means Tidy. You make sense.

[tidy 2] 15/3/2015 10:57

LSE Today 10:03 Price: 22.63sunnyca 206 postsI have neverbefore posted any share as a anything other than the "no opinion" option and don't post that often, as stated before I also don't day trade, not that I have anything against it but its just not my strategy, but we will inevitably attract the day traders who will flip this all the way up and good luck to them, however my advice for what it's worth is to buy and hold for a minimum of 1-3 yrs as I firmly believe this is an opportunity (as has been mooted) to be on the ground floor of an "APPLE". As for commercially viable and speaking with my "engineering project manager" hat on.... do people really believe that a project of the magnitude of this 50MW plant is simply a very expensive excercise in demonstrating the viability? That makes me smile.This is business, all 3 parties are in it to make alot of money hence the possible tie up for the future ventures, There are no "ifs" i.e. "If this works bla bla bla" it's difinative. Read the RNS properly as have the guys fortunate enough to be able to pump £70k in.

[norbus] 15/3/2015 10:48

bz

Many a mug will burn fingers ; People paid in mid 30's Friday, already showing a deferred tax asset¬! I got moderated by New Tech of phe fame who created a new thread in my honour; he could not deal with an analysis of the last RNS in response to a peep question;

US$ 1 bn over 10 years = US$ 100m revenue a year revenue

1MW plant cost @ US$ 1m= 50 MW = US$ 50m
US$ 100m revenue a year revenue
40% JV share revenue US$40m
40% JV Share cost US$???
40% JV share AFC to put US$20m

101 cell FC yet to be proven produces 240kw
50MW = equivalent 200 units
First phase of 5MW to be operational by end of 2016 (subject to permitting)

Second phase of 45MW forecast to be operational by end of 2019 (subject to permitting)

Has anyone looked at the JV partner credentials?
Did Roman buy in the post RNS rush?
would he have known of the JV?

How much does a Press release cost?
I think Bond is off the rails, the two partners are not up to this; Eng contractor with $230m contratcs, Gas co specialist in Co2.

Answers on a post card please

[norbus] 15/3/2015 10:34

robo175
people paid more than 50p for AFC; Great to ride up a pump; it's coming down the other side that hurts; Bond waves a majic wand and hey presto; Nirvana

tidy2
who is jak? I have neither bought nor sold a share in AFC; I detect a smell as I had sniffed about ACTA.

[ride the wave] 15/3/2015 09:51

This has so much milage it's frightening IMO .

Next week will be fun !

[tidy 2] 15/3/2015 09:50

It should say dec 2015 though yes

[tidy 2] 15/3/2015 09:48

Cyber that's from BumbleB on LSE

[cyberbub] 15/3/2015 09:29

Tidy2 your post 296, should it not say December 2015?

[tidy 2] 15/3/2015 09:08

Actually that just shows the robot being assembled. It can be seen working here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6loB00R53s&t=106 It produces up to 5 101 cell stacks stacks a day, if my memory serves me correctly.

[tidy 2] 15/3/2015 09:03

BumbleB LSE Apologies for going on at length! Last December the new CEO set out the milestones for getting Kore proven. These can be found at this link: To date milestones 1-4 have been met on time. We await information on the completion of permitting and the start of construction. If things continue to run smoothly full power will be delivered by December 2014, proving that Kore works as anticipated then they will need to run it for a year to demonstrate longevity, etc. The company have been working with clients in Sth Korea for 2 years now and there appears to be sufficient confidence in the technology for the Chang Shin development last week. If you check the 5 year chart for this company you will note it has been very spikey. This is a potentially very lucrative company and generates bursts of interest. In the past people tended to under-estimate how long development would take, so the share price peaked then fell back. We seem to be in the latest spike but we are getting closer to the equipment either being proven or not so this will either be another spike, or if it works the start of a re-rating that us long-termers have waited for for a good few years. Future funding has not been confirmed yet. It is hoped that this will not result in significant dilution. There will be some, I suspect, but with early deals resulting in funding by partners, ESCo agreements and the sale of equipment rather than electricity this can hopefully can be kept to a minimum. There are still less than 300 million shares in the company. I hope this helps.

[tidy 2] 15/3/2015 09:02

BumbleB LSE You ask about risks to this company. I have been in this share for 5 years now. It has massive potential and is currently my largest holding. I try to attend the investors days and the AGM each year so I am aware of the potential upside and the risks, so here is my take. The product is not 100% de-risked yet. They have spent the 5 years I have been here trying to get the electrodes right. Basically they have taken old technology that used expensive materials like platinum catalyst and replaced that with modern cheaper materials including various types of carbon that can operate at lower temperatures. The idea is that the resulting fuel cells will be the cheapest on the market (there are a range of different types), and the cost depends upon: 1. Getting the electrodes to last more than one year whilst balancing this with sufficient power out-put to make a viable product - and these two factors work against each other to some extent. 2. Being able to produce the fuel cells in volume so that costs come down - this depends on massive orders and an automated manufacturing process. 3. Being able to recycle the old electrodes at the end of their life. 4. Being able to find a commercial return on waste heat that can be captured and pure water that is produced as a waste product. The potential risks are that the technology does not work as anticipated, or that there are delays in getting it to work. The company will need fresh funding next year and this could result in an element of dilution. Another risk is that customers could be slower than anticipated to take up the product. The technology depends upon pairs of electrodes that generate the electricity from chemical reactions. These are turned into 101 cell stacks that are a key part of the equipment and 24 of these are housed in a 24 stack platform called Kore that contains the remaining technology that deals with temperature control, gas supply, water removal, computerised controls, etc. The company are suggesting that the electrodes are now at a state where they can go commercial, though they will be potentially improved in the future adding greater longevity and reducing costs further. The stacks are still being tested and the 101 cell cells have still not been tested at full power yet and it has taken longer than expected to get to this stage. The Kore platform has not been tested in the field yet and it will happen in the latter half of this year. Mass manufacturing has been developed in the past year - they use extruders from the food industry to make the electrodes and a new robot to assemble them - that was shown to me last November and was very impressive, but it took longer than expected to develop and that may have resulted in the delays we say last year. At that time there were still bottlenecks in the manufacturing process, between the extruder and the robot that they were working on removing.Observation No Opinion

[tidy 2] 15/3/2015 09:00

Jak I've not read our posts all I know is that you are disregarded on iii also. Good luck with your short though. Btw it looks like the MM's are using your gamble to fill large orders. As shares are thin on the ground they said they are using a bear trap to get orders filled. Good luck trying to close. At what point will you be broke. There has been lots of media attention all weekend for the multi billion $ prospect coming to fruition which still has a measly MC. Close that short imo this is going to pounds.