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Real-Time news about Adventis (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|silkstag: Adventis Group plc is now a shell company (renamed Reabold) with zero assets.
It has £201,000 of new loannote debt already spent covering the costs of taking over this shell throguh a CVA to (allegedly) settle the past £6.3m net creditor black hole racked up by previous management at 0.5-1.0p in 100p. There is a further £59,000 of new loannote debt and £59,000 new cash which has not been spent yet.
The old Adventis shares have been consolidated 7 for 1 into new Adventis shares. So there are now about 6.9m of them. That 7 for 1 consolidation may explain why dingbats thought the price should go up x7. But we have a commercial arm's length valuation as Adventis has also agreed a placing of £150,000 to issue 60m new shares at a price of 0.25p per new share. So the new shares are agreed as worth 0.25p. I think the share price going up x7 is just a careless algebra mistake!|
|silkstag: At 16:25 22secs on Friday 15-6-2012 someone sold 189,604 shares at 0.18p. I assume that was a short.
Unless Directors, Nomad and AiM all show continued contempt for AiM Rule 11, by 8am Monday 18-6-2012, Winks/Pearson should issue the 2011 Prelims and Accounts or a trading update correcting the false numbers Winks/Pearson notified on 20-1-2012. As a reminder, my 2011 estiamtes:
Soil on coffin 1) Loss £8-10m, not the £5.5m they notified.
Soil on coffin 2) Turnover £0 or maybe £9.5m, not the £29m they notified.
Soil on coffin 3) Creditor deficit ballpark £3m thus -6p per share, not "directors view the future prospects of the Group with cautious optimism" they notified.
ATG share price should crunch down, guess 50-75%? If so, the mystery shorter can take his high profit margin, made within 5 market trading minutes of opening his short position. If it is 50-75% in under 5 mins, is that a record?|
|silkstag: Digitalis, you opened this thread on 1 May 2012 to pump the ATG share price when it was 4.2p. You said "A little company that is dear to my heart,i like the approach of the new management Mr Nick Winks CEO and his CFO Andy Pearson...investing in the technology side".
9 days later, with the price in free fall, Winks/Pearson were required to issue an RNS admitting that nobody would subscribe for shares at any price so the bank had demanded tech be sold. The price is now 0.9p and sliding to 0p, rounded up from the expected liquidation deficit of -4p to -8p.
You already 'look a complete fool' having pumped a share 9 days before it tanked 80%. Your subsequent pumping makes you look like a porky peddler. As usual, my post cites the facts on which it relies. As usual, your post is based on falsity.|
|silkstag: 27 Howard,
re: BP '27howard you are very mistaken. ATG's debt is way more than the 2.4m you are talking about. It will all be revealed in the results' and your reply 'I was only reading what they told me in the update'.
You are correct that Winks/Pearson only quantified the £1.5m bank debt in the January 2012 trading update. But what do you think happened to the rest of the £9.3m liabilities in the 31-12-2010 company balance sheet? Or the soaring £12.5m liabilties in the 30-6-2011 interim Group balance sheet?
Winks/Pearson misled you by omission in breach of AiM Rule 10.
I esimate ATG liabilities, net of debtors, are about £6m at 30-4-2012 (maybe less as Tech earnout could be lower as missed targets and only hit earnings of £0.4m in 2011). Can ATG cover that £6m with sale of the tech subsidiaries? No, not even close!
Distressed sale forced by bank who want £1.5m paid. Management want buyer to pay as little as possible as they will have equity/bonus in newco. Previous £6.7m was paid TO management when ATG bought the businesses FROM management and the earnout part locked them in. Second2 are over 80% out of lockin. So a buyer will have to lock them in from scratch. About 50% of consideratioon will go to management through shares in newco, roll-over of unpaid earnout debt and new earnout. ATG share cant be more than low £0.8m to good £1.6m to incredible £2.4m. Management get £0.8-2.4m on top and the bank will push through any sale which covers their £1.5m.
In a distressed sale the buyer will pay £1.6-4.0m all-in (p/e 4-10) of which ATG share will be £0.8-2.4m. 'Incredible' p/e of 10 can only be hit if 2012 is rocketing. But that still leaves a -4p Deficit on liquidation.
Day traders can gamble away, fine, but BP is right. When the 31-12-2011 balance sheet is issued (in 'early June' per Winks) then insolvency deficit will be obvious.
Winks "Having tried, unsuccessfully, to persuade investors to back our efforts to raise new equity to pay down both bank [£1.5m] and vendor debt [£2.5m]...technology businesses...have to be sold to pay this historic debt. We believe that these businesses should be sold for an amount that is greater than that owed to the bank [£1.5m]."
Winks admitted he hopes to clear the bank £1.5m but was not convinced about covering the management £2.5m. Bad news, Stinky Winky, management will refuse and tee-up a pre-packed Administration with the bank and buyer.|
|silkstag: philmar089, fair question. There are 4 main share price issues:
1) Winks/Pearson (Chairman/FD) misled the market in January 2012 and it seems again in May 2012, as they cited £1.5m of bank debt but were silent on the £2-4m of other net liablities. They have been paying down the bank debt by collecting debtors but not paying creditors. So these unsecured liabilities are soaring. 27Howard was plainly misled, I take his post to you today as sincere but wrong.
2) Others, not reading these bulletin boards have been similarly deceived. 'If the Tech sale goes well we will get more than the bank debt so that is all for shareholders'. Would be true apart from (a) £2-4m of other liabilities; and (b) wont get more than P/E of 2-4 in a distressed sale of a people business hence £0.8-1.6m. The bank's £1.5m is at risk so they may just end up grabbing the group debtors and leave trade sale for peanuts to an Administrator.
3) Winks/Pearson want to maximise the Tech Division sale price to pay off the bank so tell naive people connected to company (Digitalis) that 'it is going great and will get great sale price'. Fair enough but in RNS they crossed the line of market manipulation and AiM Rule 10 (deceit by omission). Read their January and May 2012 RNSs again, they are tricky. You can work out they are only citing bank debt, but by omitting to quantify the other liabilities, they misled the market.
4) People with no understanding of the facts are just gambling.'It shot up before so it can do it again then i'll sell'. Fine, but when the facts come out on 7 June or ATG gets delisted, then the fat lady will have sung. That is why I suggested to 27Howard that he exit before then. My suggestion was sincere. Good luck to day-traders and punters, but ATG is not an investment. ATG could not issue any shares at 0.5-1p to investors who demanded sight of the draft balance sheet at 31-12-2011. ATG shares are worth -6p, rounded up to 0p, because of the -6p of trade/HMRC creditors. No miracle on the tech division distressed sale can pay the bank's £1.5m and overcome that -6p.|
|silkstag: BP, Digitalis just persuaded 27Howard to buy 64,000 shares at 1.4p, he wants more and hasn't twigged he is paving the way for Digitalis to bail and cut his own losses.
1) 7 June 2012 Prelimns out else ATG delisted from AiM.
2) Draft net cash liabilites (exc tech) £5.7m at 31-12-2011 [£6m at 30-04-2012].
3) Advertising agencies to tech sector are up for distress sale. ATG Management hope for more than bank's £1.5m.
4) Tech agencies earnings crashed from £0.8m in 2010 to £0.4m in 2011.
5) Low sale price could cause £2.5m write off of earnout liabilities.
6) So net liabilties (exc 'tech goodwill') at 31-12-2011 could be £3.2-3.5m instead of £5.7m.
7) Accounts qualified as NOT a going concern.
8) Unsecured creditors on track for >£3m shortfall including losses since 31-12-2011, liquidator fees, management and advisor fees.
9) Liquidator cant sue shareholders for creditor deficit. Shareholders get 0p, not -6p.
10) Share price was Bid 0.5p before the deceitful January 2012 trading statement. Attempted equity round at 0.5-1p failed as true value was -6p.
27Howard, Digitlais is rogering you, sorry. ATG management are desperate to pay off the bank by issuing deceitful RNSs and may pump the tech division to help negotiate its sale. But ATG shares are dead. Submerged under excessive debt. Suggest you sell before accounts come out. Your decision.
ps 27 Howard, Philmar089, you have been misled by Winks/Pearson RNSs. You think only £1.5m of liabilities. No. Management ony cited the £1.5m of bank debt but also £2-4m of other net creditors. If sell tech for £4m (no chance of disressed P/E of 10) shareholders still left with nothing.|
|silkstag: Gents, the Bid-Offer is 1-1.3p, 30% spread, which is market-maker code for 'we dont want to buy any more shares in this doomed people business dog'. But I believe that a short sell at 1p will still make 1p profit within a month or two. 7 June is Disaster Day as the Prelimns must be out by then or ATG will not be able to get accounts approved at AGM before June so be delisted from AiM.
My previous estimate of net cash liabilites (exc the tech business value) was £5.7m at 31-12-2011 and £6m at 30-04-2012. Now management have admitted that the tech businesses are up for distress sale, as I said they would be, there is one small offset. ATG Management hope to realise more than the £1.5m so they can pay off the secured creditor. It appears that the tech division earnings crashed from £0.8m in 2010 to £0.4m in 2011. Taking those two facts together, and that ATG will be placed into liquidation after the sale, tech management will likely want to transfer to the aspired buyer newco any unpaid earnouts. That could reduce the £5.7m liabilities by the £2.5m that was in the 30-06-2011 interim balance sheet. Some of that £2.5m may be written off due to the poor 2011 results reducing the entitlement.
Obviously, newco being lumbererd wth some/all of that tech management £2.5m makes it much harder to even get the £1.5m to pay off the bank. The businesses are not worth £4m. So tech management will have to waive some of it, maybe the bank wont get more than £1m out of its £1.5n and soem debst are left in the deal to helkp the bank get over the line.
None of this helps ATG shareholders, but all I am saying is that the value of the tech businesses is so low, and their results in 2011 are so poor, that some of their previoiusly expected earnout can be written off in the 31-12-2011 balance sheet. That could make the net liabilties say £3.7m instead of £5.7m. With the tech businesses aspired sale on track only to generate £1m to £1.5m, the unsecured creditors are still heading for a > £3m shortfall inclduing losses since the year end, liquidator fees, management and advisor fees. The hyenas will feast on the carcass of ATG - as they always do. Clearly the shareholders, who rank after the unsecured creditors, are £3m of miracle away from even getting to 0p. Happily company law means the future liquidator cannot make a cash call on the shareholders to pay the creditor deficit. So the shaerholders will get 0p, not -6p.
ps the share price was Bid 0.5p before the deceitful January 2012 trading statement. The attempted equity round at guess 1p obviously failed as new investors rightly did not want to buy shares at 1p when their true value was -6p. There was no price at which a deal could be done without an insolvency process or CVA. Trouble is, with people businesses, management are better just to walk and start from fresh, if they cannot find any mugs to inject cash to pay their overdue earnouts, which they couldn't. This is further proof the shares are worth 0p, rounding up from -6p on the 'limited liability company get out of jail card'.|
|silkstag: BP, before Winks/Pearson created a false market in ATG with their deceitful 20 January 2012 trading statement in breach of AiM Rule 10, the Bid-Offer was 0.5-1p. Given the estimated £6m black hole of net liabilities at 30 April 2012, which Adventis' share of the Tech division ultimate sale proceeds will never fill, I cant think of an honest reason for the share price today to be any higher than 'priced to go bust' e.g. Bid-Offer 0.1-0.125p. Thus the share price should logically slide a further 2.7p down toward that correct level.
The share price descent toward 0.1p could be speeded up by a mix of:
1) insiders selling if they know as true my estimated ballpark £4.8-5.8m loss in 2011
2) no more punters left to be duped into buying based on Winks/Pearson deceit
3) shorters gnawing on the ATG carcass (they can still make a 97% profit margin)
4) Digitalis and other previously duped small holders sensibly bailing out
5) large shareholders bailing mainly to avoid being trapped as a declarable shareholder when ATG goes into Administration.|
|silkstag: Digitalis, you seem a bit dim. If the facts point to share price growth then it is a share buy. If, as with Adventis, it screams share price collapse to 0p, then short is right.
My slating of shorters on EPO yesterday was because they were belittling a new client partnership the company announced, suggesting it was nothing. I thought those posts were pathetic as that new client/partner, Fiserv, has market cap nearly $10 billion and it announced the deal through Nadaq, thus proving the deal was material to them. Those facts prove it is a huge deal for EPO, thus for shorters to post otherwise on that topic, was 'pathetic and shameless'.
I have nothing against short or long investors who post fair comment. I do my analysis and invest long or short accordingly. That is logical.
Digitalis says; On Second2 "There is further deferred consideration of up to GBP4.0 million...sorry i should have said upto £10.5mil"
Silkstag said: "Adventis 2008 accounts show Second2 aquisition was £5.8m. Split £3.5m upfront plus £2.3m deferred contingent consideration, subject to meeting targets, which expired August 2011. Digitalis' £10.5m is a fabriaction".
Silkstag adds: "Adventis 2010 accounts show extra expected earnout on Second2 and bChannels total £1,092,000. We dont know the split, assume Second2 is £0.3m in each of June 2012 and June 2013 ie not material to a jump decision, especially after June 2012. Total expected Second2 acquisition cost according to Winks/Pearson will be about £5.8-£6.5m. After June 2012 management hold the whip hand and the exit deal will be ugly. I still see no propsect of the mounting unsecured creditors across the Adventis group being paid in full and they face heavy losses. Shares are submerged and 0p is only possible outcome imho."|
|silkstag: Gents, Adventis said the prelims would be out in April but silence. Late usually means lousy. The sliding share price is consistent with lousy.
Winks/Pearson closed the recently loss-making Health division but were also out-manoevered into distress sales of some of the profitable bits. Senior management jumped ship to join a competitor, which left Adventis stuffed with key clients, so they sold a newco (backed by competitor and old management) the business for peanuts.
Winks/Pearson are trumpeting the new tech marketing businesses they have, but that can only be short-term while subsidiary management are still maximising their earnouts. After that, they will jump ship like the others.
Savills are trapped as a large shareholder but axed the revenue they used to give to Adventis, so the property division is withering on the vine. That will be closed or sold for peanuts in due course.
Distressed marketing groups tend to drift into Administration, with value systematically axed, exactly like Adventis has. That is why none of the informed old lead shareholders built their stake, even when the share price was 1p. They know the prospects are bleak.|
Adventis share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange