Auction Technology Share Discussion Threads

[345654] 18/6/2012 16:26

Mug of the day perhaps ?

430k buyer at 0.4 !

[silkstag] 18/6/2012 08:24

Winks/Pearson have still failed to correct the false market expectation of performance they set on 20-1-2012: "2011, the Group is expected to report...revenues of approximately GBP29.0 million...operating profit before central costs of approximately GBP0.5 million. Central costs will be approximately GBP1.2 million before interest. In addition, exceptional reorganisation costs...closure of the Health division and restructuring of the board will be approximately GBP0.5 million. Goodwill impairments...Health division closure and sale of the Media businesses will be approximately GBP4.3 million". That implies loss of about £5.6m (assumes £0.1m interest).

Under AiM Rule 11, Winks Pearson (and Tom Griffiths at Westhouse Securities) are obliged to correct those false expectations 'without delay'. Deceiving the market is Adventis house style, so please note again, my 2011 expectation:

Soil on coffin 1) Loss £8-10m, not £5.6m.
Soil on coffin 2) Turnover £0 or maybe £9.5m, not £29m.
Soil on coffin 3) Creditor deficit ballpark £3m thus -6p per share.
Soil on coffin 4) Maybe also a loss on subletting Adventis House that Winks/Pearson have covered up to date. Given their track record of deceit, further horrors in the accounts should not surprise anyone.

Winks/Pearson may continue to cover up their false 20-1-2012 market expectations for 2011 until AiM Regulation or Tom Griffiths at Westhouse Securities or the FSA decide that AiM Rules should not be breached with impugnity, especially by directors with a track record of market deceit.

[silkstag] 16/6/2012 11:55

At 16:25 22secs on Friday 15-6-2012 someone sold 189,604 shares at 0.18p. I assume that was a short.

Unless Directors, Nomad and AiM all show continued contempt for AiM Rule 11, by 8am Monday 18-6-2012, Winks/Pearson should issue the 2011 Prelims and Accounts or a trading update correcting the false numbers Winks/Pearson notified on 20-1-2012. As a reminder, my 2011 estiamtes:

Soil on coffin 1) Loss £8-10m, not the £5.5m they notified.
Soil on coffin 2) Turnover £0 or maybe £9.5m, not the £29m they notified.
Soil on coffin 3) Creditor deficit ballpark £3m thus -6p per share, not "directors view the future prospects of the Group with cautious optimism" they notified.

ATG share price should crunch down, guess 50-75%? If so, the mystery shorter can take his high profit margin, made within 5 market trading minutes of opening his short position. If it is 50-75% in under 5 mins, is that a record?

[silkstag] 15/6/2012 14:34

BP, it is now Bid-Offer 0.15p-0.25p. I believe that will crunch down with the accounts to 0.03-0.05p or similar. Once tech is sold there is nothing left but the worthless property agency (which may be being sold for £1 or closed as we type), and people businesses just cannot trade with liquidation overhanging.

The 2011 accounts will show ballpark £8-10 loss in 2011, and £3m excess of creditors. There will just be nothing left to lie or dream about. Normally on AIM, eg technology or mining companies, there is some very remote chance that someone might buy the 'assets', but not here as there aren't any. Winks/Pearson have run Adventis as a Zombie Administration, so that dream (nightmare) has been played out over the past year.

In general, I concur with your observation, but in this unusually dead hopeless case, I disagree that it will apply. Still 75% profit potential within 7 days on a short today. Someone sold today 100,000 shares at 0.178p. I assume that is a short and be profitable.

I agree this is by no means certain, as it depends on human behaviour, which can often be irrational. But this is my prediction.

[bubble pricker] 15/6/2012 10:19

SS, I think in theory you are correct. However, in reality, I have observed that, for whatever mysterious reasons, shares that remain listed never trade down to zero but always retain some share price level right down to the day of suspension or delisting, even if the shares are obviously worthless. I do not understand why, but I assume there must always be some punters who will buy a share at 0.1p in the hope that there will be some miraculous recovery, and at the same time there are few sellers because those that still hold the stock have already lost 99% of their capital, so they see no reason to sell now and recover some small change.

Therefore the only way to make money from a short here is to ride it all they way into suspension/delisting/administration, with the problems described in my earlier post.

[silkstag] 15/6/2012 09:22

BP, I infer (dishonest and egomaniac?) Adventis directors have decided to keep listing for 1-2 months. The 2011 accounts, to be isssued 'shortly', will flatline the share price within 7 days I predict.

I predict Adventis 2011 accounts will show loss of -£8m to -£10m [not the -£5.5m that liars Winks/Pearson told the market on 20-1-2012. They will also confirm my predicted insolvency deficit of -6p per share. Plus the directors report and audit report will use lots of clear words like 'insolvet liqidation' and 'deficit'.

You can make another 90% profit in a week, and here you know exactly what event will crystallise your profit and roughly when. Shorter heaven? The shorter Gods will punish you if you scorn their plentiful bounty! OK, just kidding, it matters not a jot, and amounts are small. But I will tease you about this when I am (again) proved right on the numbers. Comversely I suppose I will apologise if somehow I am wrong, which I doubt!

[bubble pricker] 14/6/2012 20:27

yes but you have the hassle of having to deal with closing a position once the stock is delisted. I am still carrying daily fees on GAME which are eating into the 100% profit I made there and no sign of the position being closed out.

Better to move on to the next short, for example MUL.

[shroder] 14/6/2012 19:53

Interesting strategy SilkStag, thanks for the reply.

[silkstag] 14/6/2012 16:24

Shroder, I posted on a different thread on 8 June:

"after ATG is delisted in a few months [I now predict 1-2 months] your broker can close even a naked short with the market-makers or a broker. That is what the CFD people do. Some shareholders always want to get off the register or reduce their dead position. Here the director's statement of affairs for the Administrator or liquidator will show a multi-million pound creditor deficit so it will be clear the shares are worth zero pence in all scenarios".

You can short T10 or T20 and know the 2011 accounts will come out before then to flatline the share price. The drectors' report and audit report will talk about insolvent liquidation and we will be able to check my liquidation deficit estimate of about -6p per share.

[shroder] 14/6/2012 11:06

Are you selling short via a 'T' trade, ie not covered?

"Still a good short and expect price to fall 90% to 0.025p 'shortly' [inside 7 days]"

[silkstag] 14/6/2012 10:05

Gents, Winks/Pearson are now forced to value the Tech Division at its genuine low realisable value (guess £1m cash proceeds + some creditors novated/waived), rather than the crooked over-valuation of about £6.8m they included in the 30-6-2011 balance sheet.

Tech operating profit crashed in second half of 2011 to just £80k and maybe it did not recover in 2012. As posted before, that could reduce the £2.5m earnout liabilities and they could be partly or fully wrapped into or written off as part of the trade sale.

Nail in coffin W) Accounts will show 2011 loss was ballpark -£8m (maybe -£10m). Compare that with the -£5m that Winks/Pearson suggested to the market on 20-1-2012 i.e after the 2011 year-end!

Nail in coffin X) Liquidation deficit in the statement of affairs looks on track for mid of my -4p to -8p range, at about -6p.

Perhaps one or two more final nails (Y and Z) before liquidator is formally hired.

Those accounts are due 'shortly' and I would question the samity of punters who hold a positive shareholding. Still a good short and expect price to fall 90% to 0.025p 'shortly' [inside 7 days]. 27howard, I dare you!

[ukmassy] 14/6/2012 08:23

Although they are not paying .25 to sell they are paying .21.

[27howard] 14/6/2012 08:16

Even when it looks grim you could have almost doubled your money, 0.15p offer
yesterday and now 0.25p bid, 66% clear profit

[shroder] 13/6/2012 21:51

Did you find it easy to borrow stock for your position?

[silkstag] 13/6/2012 21:06

BP, thanks. Now you can short again at 0.2p for another 90% profit!

[diku] 13/6/2012 20:26

SilkStag....well done for pre warning PI's on the outcome.....makes you wonder if the whole truth and nothing but the truth is being told across the PLC casinos (small/tiny caps).....need to see more of the Shareholder Springs that are doing the rounds play a full time role.....

[loverat] 13/6/2012 19:02

UKMassy

I was watching this afternoon's trades after the announcement. I traded a few for beer money and got in at 0.15p. I was watching for a quick doubler but threw in the towel at the end of the day. My own view is there might be a small bounce tomorrow but very hard to make it worthwhile with the spread. The statement is terminal and therefore most of the speculative appeal there was here has been removed.

Having said that, I have seen some crazy trading in terminal stocks and temporary turnarounds so probably best just to watch the action and take it from there.

P.S - if you like similar types of risk - HAMP is one worth looking at. To be realistic, like this there is probably no value left for shareholders also but bombed out and still speculative because the fatal RNS might be some way off. Might be worth a short term punt although with all these stocks, probably best to assume there is no medium or long term prospects.

[ukmassy] 13/6/2012 17:41

So do you think there will be a dead cat bounce tomorrow?

[silkstag] 13/6/2012 15:22

RNS "The Company is working with its auditors to enable them to conclude the audit for the year ended 31 December 2011 and to finalise the form of their audit opinion and expects to release its final year results shortly".

That suggests Winks/Pearson (dishonenst egomaniacs) want to keep the shares listed until they appoint the liquidator. If so, then ATG is still a viable short at 0.2p. The Bid-Offer should settle down at about 0.025p to 0.05p after the 2011 accounts are issued and show the creditor deficit running into many millions.

[bozzy_s] 13/6/2012 14:30

362 - NOOOOOOOOOOOO! Don't take the risk. Silkstag has been saying for months these shares are worthless. The company has confirmed that today. They will be suspended and delisted in the near future, I wouldn't risk even £500 on a day trade (especially if such a trade relies on idiots risking 100% of their money buying after me, for me to make a profit).

[silkstag] 13/6/2012 14:21

jonyjackles, Adventis will be delisted in near future as shares are worth 0p in all scenarios. Liquidaion deficit -4p to -8p. Why would anyone want to be on the share register now?

Sale of 3,069,300 shares at 0.1p today rather proves the point.