Advanced Oncotherapy Share Discussion Threads

[gerhart] 23/2/2017 15:05

TW is human like the rest of us. And I can't help seeing that once he makes a decision about a company, then every (relevant) piece of info is used to reinforce that decision. "Complications" are not allowed to get in the way.

I also quite often don't understand why he gloats on a falling share price, as we liitle peeps maybe suffering a loss. Yet it is we little peeps who he then wants to SELL product to. ie tips and all the rest.

Anyway he knows a lot more than me, and he gets some spot on. But plenty wrong too.

I am crossing my fingers that he is wrong on this one.

[gerhart] 23/2/2017 13:54

Maybe I am one of those BB loopers TW often mocks. (Well I bought MIN two years ago on TWs say and I'm still waiting on pay day...and NIPT at 18p, er what happened there then...anyway leave those aside)

So the simple principle is we borrow the money, Bracknor get shares. But before Bracknor get their shares, they short the share price and then settle with shares they have been given. Then at the lower share price they get even more shares for the same money and repeat. And the share price disappears to south pole.

TW compared us - even more unfavourably - than another Co, sorry can't remember name as I write, who apparently travelled same route.

But I think there could be factors that will prevent a death spiral here. Firstly what if Bracknor get their fingers burned in shorting (maybe not appropriate analogy in this case...maybe unsucessful endeavour). For example our Swedish(?) friends who invest long term and develop Co's. Who own more than 4% at much higher share price What if they actually keeping buying....SP will hold up - especially if funding sorted. And other key investors too.

Also, we have a close relationship with organisation that is truly at the cutting edge of a branch of science. We also have number of high profile/credibility/qualifications people who believe they understand and have what could become a world beating transformational technology. (mind, perhaps a few more hard-headed savvy pure business people could have avoided recent woes)

I think those two points may help attract new investors - now that funding is sorted - and support the share price to go a bit more towards the north pole!

Anyway, who knows, as we reach a critical point for proven kit development. We may get taken out.....hopefully at a much, much, higher price!

Just a few thoughts. Go on, all yell at once. Maybe TW too with his own ID.

[igbertsponk] 23/2/2017 12:52

Jaknife - I suspect they'll still be left with 29% as there won't be any buyers by the time they've finished with the company.

[igbertsponk] 23/2/2017 11:29

what is to stop AVO doing a Valirx and dropping the deal once AVO no longer needs it?

Nothing, except that they will need all of the Bracknor money to get to that position. By which time Bracknor will own 29% of the company and have driven the share price down to buttons. And own sufficient warrants to have effective control of the company.
Make no mistake, Bracknor control this company now, and any slipups will just give them even more power. Anyone investing or retaining an investment is very brave....

[smithless] 23/2/2017 11:05

This really is bad news. AVO has done the rounds and couldn't generate enough interest to do a placing (well possibly at 20p), so has gone down the worse possible route IHMO. It is in the midst of a very capital intensive development stage (reminds me of Flowgroup) and can't just stop. They really didn't do themselves any favours with Sinophi, as it over promised and didn't deliver. It all come down to cash and whether it can regain credibility. It YE is 31 December and it doesn't take a genius to work out it is running out of cash fast. They know if they hadn't done this finance deal the auditors would not be able to sign off the company as a going concern. Unfortunately, it can't reduce costs to slow the cash burn down much, as it needs to spend to make the product work otherwise it has nothing. Even if it could slow down development, it has massive fixed costs (wonder if the directors will forgo their large salaries hmm most probably not) I don't think it has any other choice, but to carry on with these draw downs from Bracknor, as the directors would have tried every avenue before going with them. It needs the cash to try and deliver a product, catch 22

[daijavu] 23/2/2017 09:48

I've read TW's comments and I think I understand what he is saying. I admit it doesn't look good.

However, If the package enables AVO to bring LIGHT to market and it is the success we hope it might be, what is to stop AVO doing a Valirx and dropping the deal once AVO no longer needs it?

[igbertsponk] 22/2/2017 17:38

Yes, just as I said earlier. He does seem to steal my thoughts.

[sweet karolina] 22/2/2017 17:03

I have not checked his maths, but it seems about right.



The key issue is whether there are enough people willing to buy the shares Bracknor dump each month. CTAG mug punters have absorbed about half of the shares to be dumped in about 4 months with a 66% reduction in shareprice. There may well be another 66% to come on the next half. AVO does not have the rabidly stupid PI base CTAG has, thus the shareprice is likely to get hit much harder and quicker.

[igbertsponk] 22/2/2017 09:20

Bracknor has a track record....

[twirl] 22/2/2017 09:09

Igbert>> Quite! note the word "hope"

[sweet karolina] 22/2/2017 09:01

Not quite as bad as the CTAG death spiral, but pretty grim. However, there are far fewer mug punters here than at CTAG so the forward selling before conversion will hit the shareprice much harder than at CTAG where it has only reduced by 66% since the start of their deathspiral thanks to all the ramping that continues to suck in mug punter money.

[igbertsponk] 22/2/2017 08:54

twirl - err... are AVO the sort of company that spend less than they forecast ?
The 29% will be hit - the market cap is currently less than £50m so borrowing £26m will put them over 30%, even before all the fees and warrants.

[ramas] 22/2/2017 08:39

Why not just give the money directly to the directors , that's where it's heading anyway ... pay for nil performance scheme

[knigel] 22/2/2017 08:38

So why have the option if only expect to draw down a portion? Gives the wrong signal and market knows this

[twirl] 22/2/2017 08:34

Igbert>> Presumably they hope not to drawdown too much and so avoid 29%

[twirl] 22/2/2017 08:33

So have had to resort to desperate finance as they are currently skint and unable to obtain loan finance due to no revenues and innability to convince lenders that testing will be completed anytime soon. Harley St has not even signed the s106 yet so no start on site.

The hope is that they will sort out the snags in the delayed testing and find buyers for LIGHT to avoid drawing down too much of the Brackner money.

The concern is they won't.

[igbertsponk] 22/2/2017 08:29

Two points I can't figure:1. Is there any interest on the "loan" apart from the kickers on conversion?1. As the price drives down, can't see how the requirement for the lender only to have a maximum of 29.9% of AVO will be kept unless they sell shares, pushing the price further down as they convert each tranche.I'll continue to like the tech but find it impossible to invest.

[werty5] 22/2/2017 08:20

Smithless it is not good news my mistake. I am not invested here and gave the news a brief glance and came to the wrong conclusion that they had been provided a loan. My mistake.

[smithless] 22/2/2017 08:17

How can this be good news! The warrants alone are a killer. Last resort finance as one else would give them any after the non-contract event, which investors in the last fund raise got legged over

[werty5] 22/2/2017 08:16

Ah thats what you get for a quick glance not a loan at all.

[werty5] 22/2/2017 08:13

Hmm maybe market does not view the same way I do. I must admit I only gave the news a quick scan perhaps a longer read through is in order here.