Advanced Oncotherapy Share Discussion Threads

[sweet karolina] 30/1/2017 13:17

daijavu,

I think you are crediting TW with far too much influence.

The main factors driving the shareprice are the delays, the loss of sales, Evans selling his shares without notifying, NEDs walking and probably most importantly the high level of cash burn whilst needing to raise significant sums to have any hope of having a marketable product. I can't remember who thought the scope of the funding being increased was good news. I took that phase to mean needing more money for longer at higher interest rates with more security over the assets / seniority of the debt. They have also locked themselves into a bit of a conundrum. In order to deliver to other customers they need Harley St up and running first, but the funding for Harley St is dependant on them being able to convince the lender that they can make other sales. The Chinese Hospitals walking in the way they did has had the biggest impact on everything and I very much doubt any of those involved in that decision are even aware of TW.

[daijavu] 30/1/2017 09:46

waterloo. I always respect your point of view and I'm sorry if you think I've spoken rubbish. I was simply telling it as I see it. I think that TW might well have a lot of influence on people.

I've been in this game for a few years. I've made money and I've lost money. Looking back, I usually made money when I followed my own advice. I was in Cloudbuy when it was @UK, got out on the peak and made a fair bit. It was one of my early successes. I've made gains on a number of others as well. Whenever I listened to the advice of wiser heads I generally seemed to lose out by either not buying or by selling too early when things looked grim before they turned around. Consequently, I now tend to ignore the advice of others and rely on my own research and instincts.

I may be wrong about TW and AVO but my instincts tell my I'm not. I am naturally concerned by the current financial situation and lack of orders but my current advice to myself is hold. When or if I really do feel I must sell, I will.

[waterloo01] 30/1/2017 07:15

"I happen to believe that much of the financial problems that AVO are experiencing have been caused by TW's disruptive influence on the share price "

daijavu, what rubbish. If you think that, you deserve to lose your money. He's just the messenger and others (myself included) warned about AVO before he ever got his teeth into it.

[scantrader] 30/1/2017 04:36

daijavu29 Jan '17 - 18:15 - 2853 of 2863
"The first is. Where are the e-mails? If he has them why has he confined himself to merely quoting excerpts and not published the e-mails themselves? Without the evidence of the e-mails nothing is proven.

Bear in mind that he has already stated that there is no technological difference between the LIGHT machine and the machines offered by its competitors when, if what AVO says is true, there is a very big difference.
......."

You really write amazing nonsense - I'm just picking out a small sample.

[daijavu] 29/1/2017 23:41

JakNife. I am not being silly. TW's attack on the integrity of AVO is an attack on the integrity of CERN. AVO and CERN are joined at the hip.

The question of valuation is moot but I agree that they have a funding problem.

As for TW, there is a suggestion that some of the times he has been right in the past is because he created situations that made him right. That he forced some good promising but vulnerable firms under when without his attentions they might have succeeded.

I happen to believe that much of the financial problems that AVO are experiencing have been caused by TW's disruptive influence on the share price AVO previously, and possibly unwisely, tied a financial package to their share price They clearly did not expect TW. TW saw his chance and went for it. He undermined investors' confidence in AVO, forcing the share price down and preventing the funding package taking effect. At the same time he rubbished AVO's technology although it was clear from what he said that he barely knew the first thing about it.

[daijavu] 29/1/2017 23:06

vatnabrekk, The original schedule stated that the facility would be ready by the end of Q2 2017 and the first patient treated by the end of Q4 2017. The revised date for the completion of the building work suggests that the revised date for the treatment of the first patient might be around Q3/4 2018

[daijavu] 29/1/2017 22:11

Sweet Karoline.

Thank you for taking the time to write all that. I think we are actually on much the same wavelength on most of the issues.

Based on AVO's statement that they are on schedule, I anticipate that the integration and testing of LIGHT should be completed by the end of Q2 2017. That is, of course, a different matter to when the first commercial machine might be ready. That is in the hands of Thales.

Sales are a different issue and finance another issue again. Beaufort have suggested that Thales might be the source of the non-dilutive finance. If true, it would make sense because of Thales financial strength and the benefits that would accrue to Thales when LIGHT is successfully marketed.

AVO has proved a more complicated investment than I first anticipated but few of the complications seem to be AVO's fault. Even the financial issues can be attributed to TW's uncalled for and persistent attacks that might have influenced the downward move in the share price to which AVO's financial arrangements had been linked. Even the contractual problems in China might be linked to the negative publicity surrounding TW's attacks. The Chinese might even have picked up on the Harley Street objections, including the ones that the technology was new and untested. They certainly used those words to justify cancelling. The objections to the Harley Street planning application definitely caused delays. None of those things were under AVO's control. Sinophi undoubtedly reacted to the Chinese situation to keep in with their paymasters, knowing that they could always get pbt machines from another source even if they weren't as good as the LIGHT system.

AVO had a plan. They have stuck to it as far as they have been able to. So far they have developed the LIGHT system to schedule. They have secured a 50 year lease for Harley Street with the landlords paying for the adaptions. They have a solid supply and manufacturing network. They have a pipeline of potential orders. They are negotiating a non-dilutive financial package. I have previously invested in other companies that have proved less than honest. The dishonest ones always seemed to be the ones with a lot to say. The honest ones tended to be more reticent. A bit like AVO.

It is all very interesting

[vatnabrekk] 29/1/2017 21:27

An excellent comprehensive post Karolina.
It may (or may not) be relevant that in their RNS dated 24th November they gave an expected date of March 2018 for completion of the building works at Harley Street, but they didn't give any estimate for the installation, commissioning and start-up of the machine and the treatment of first patients.

[daijavu] 29/1/2017 21:27

JakNife. Have you never heard of CERN?

[sweet karolina] 29/1/2017 18:43

Daijavu,

If, and I mean if, there are significant technical problems which AVO are keeping quiet about and they knew about these problems whilst raising money then they have committed an act of fraud. That does not mean the whole thing is a fraud and everybody involved is a fraudster. No hard evidence has been presented by anyone that there is a significant technical problem. However something lies behind the excepts from the e-mails, which are almost certainly genuine, however it would be good to see the whole e-mail so it can be taken in context and behind the statement on the Sinophi website:

"In early November 2016, Sinophi Healthcare’s two project cooperations with China-Japan Union Hospital of Jilin University and Huai’An First People’s Hospital to install Advanced Oncotherapy LIGHT proton therapy machines were terminated due to delays in the proton therapy machine delivery schedules.  Sinophi is not looking for other sites for these machines in either Changchun or Huai’An and will look elsewhere.

As a result, Sinophi does not expect there to be any progress with the four Framework Agreements with Chinese hospitals signed in 2015 to use and install Advanced Oncotherapy LIGHT proton therapy machines until such time as Advanced Oncotherapy  has a working prototype capable of commercialization.  As this is a new technology, still in the research and development stage, we are unable to predict when this will be achieved."

AVO say everything is on track technically and the delay is with Harley Street and for good reasons that must come first. The potential delivery dates in the email excerpts do align to some extent with when Harley St might come on line and subsequent machines could be delivered. It is possible that AVO are telling the truth in all of this and no fraud has been committed. Indeed if the Chinese hospitals had been convinced to go with an alternative which could be delivered sooner, it would be in their interests to raise doubts about the technical aspects of what we are led to believe is a far superior machine. It would also be in Sinophi's interests once they were determined to get out of their contract with AVO to also play up the technical aspects. I believe TW is wrong to keep calling AVO frauds and liars, when he has no conclusive evidence of either. That does not mean he won't one day be proved right.

What is clear is that AVO no longer has any orders - as Beaufort say, this was predictable and TW did predict it before anyone else. Beaufort think AVO may be able to get an out of court settlement for a few £M, I personally think that is optimistic. That they have no orders makes the non dilutive financing much more difficult (not impossible). AVO had expected to have that financing by now and probably also the Harley St funding too. Beaufort highlight the financial pressure AVO are now under and this aligns with what TW said quite a while ago.

The point is to maintain an open mind and consider carefully all new information from all sources, it most certainly is not a case of Cern Scientists Vs TW. To my mind TW does himself and investors a disservice by ranting on about fraud and lies, where there are many alternative good explanations, rather than focusing on the important things which are at least partially known. What TW says about Tim Lebus departing is also worth considering in the mix again he did predict it.

[daijavu] 29/1/2017 18:32

Sweet Karolina.

Think on this.

If TW is telling the truth then all those High profile medical specialists and all those scientists must be lying and all of them must be involved together in a conspiracy to defraud.

If he is telling the truth he has uncovered one of the biggest scandals of our time.

Do you really think that is likely?

[euroto] 29/1/2017 18:27

TW is a journalist - they have no integrity and I believe daijavu is correct.

[daijavu] 29/1/2017 18:15

Thank you for that Sweet Karolina. I have read his article but still have questions.

The first is. Where are the e-mails? If he has them why has he confined himself to merely quoting excerpts and not published the e-mails themselves? Without the evidence of the e-mails nothing is proven.

Bear in mind that he has already stated that there is no technological difference between the LIGHT machine and the machines offered by its competitors when, if what AVO says is true, there is a very big difference.

Clearly there are problems with China and Sinophi but are they the problems that TW alleges or is he just guessing because of what he has read on the Sinophi website?

Bear in mind that if AVO really is committing fraud as TW alleges there are a number of very high profile scientists and people at the top of the medical profession, all with huge reputations at stake, who may be implicated. Some of them hold very senior positions at CERN others who have retired held equally senior, if not more senior positions at CERN with responsibilty for the world famous Large Hydron Collider. If they are lying about the LIGHT system then it not only brings their reputations into disrepute it also casts doubt on all the research into particale physics they have been involved in for the last 40 years. It would provoke an enormous international scandal.

Whether TW realises it or not, the issue he is raising could have enormous implications if what he is alleging is true.

All I am saying is that it is serious stuff and I sincerely hope, for his sake, that the e-mails exist and TW has actually got copies of them and is not making up stories out of very little.

Until there is evidence to prove I am wrong in my judgement, I am placing my confidence in CERN scientists rather than TW's allegations.

[sweet karolina] 29/1/2017 15:55

But you can gain an insight into their thought processes from the e-mails referred to here:

[daijavu] 29/1/2017 14:22

I am not privy to their thought processes so I cannot offer an explanation. I put my trust in what I know, not in what I don't know.

[sweet karolina] 29/1/2017 13:37

"I am also happy that the testing and integration of LIGHT are not behind schedule."

Perhaps you can explain why the Chinese Hospitals and Sinophi believe there are significant delays and only a 50/50 chance of producing a working prototype and hence why both have terminated the supply contracts.

[daijavu] 29/1/2017 09:21

smtrading. It is Harley Street :)

[smtrading] 29/1/2017 00:33

A little snippet from circle announcements about Hadley Street deal

Circle also seeks in due course to operate a similar facility alongside its proposed new-build hospital in Birmingham, which has recently received detailed planning permission

[daijavu] 28/1/2017 22:15

JakNife.

I've done my research and acted on my conclusions. I've taken a punt and I'm happy with that. You are free to make your own decisions.

I am also happy that the testing and integration of LIGHT are not behind schedule. I'm awaiting further announcements the same as everyone else.

As I and others have said many times, everyone should do their own research and avoid being influenced by either tipsters or other punter's opinions. I know that can be difficult, especially if someone is hooked on any particular tipster's opinions.

[smtrading] 28/1/2017 18:15

Reading the update from November sinopi have said this As a result, Sinophi does not expect there to be any progress with the four Framework Agreements with Chinese hospitals signed in 2015 to use and install Advanced Oncotherapy LIGHT proton therapy machines until such time as Advanced Oncotherapy has a working prototype capable of commercialization. As this is a new technology, still in the research and development stage, we are unable to predict when this will be achieved

So looks like when the product is up and tested it will be buying them, along with alot of other hospitals

[smtrading] 28/1/2017 18:14

Reading the update from November sinopi have said this As a result, Sinophi does not expect there to be any progress with the four Framework Agreements with Chinese hospitals signed in 2015 to use and install Advanced Oncotherapy LIGHT proton therapy machines until such time as Advanced Oncotherapy has a working prototype capable of commercialization. As this is a new technology, still in the research and development stage, we are unable to predict when this will be achieved

So looks like when the product is up and tested it will be buying them, along with alot of other hospitals

[daijavu] 28/1/2017 17:33

Karolina, I agree with the principle of taking on board all valid resources. My research began with reading books and learning the rules before I started picking shares. I make a point of finding out all I can about a company before I invest. I have a check list to see how many boxes a share ticks. Once I have made my choice, I stick with it unless something changes. As far as I am concerned, nothing material has changed with AVO.

They have a product that was developed by CERN. They maintain very close connections with CERN. They share their development team with CERN. Their product is endorsed by CERN and various high profile professional whose backgrounds I have checked. I believe that their product is likely to work.

Their main problem is finance. So far they have survived. I am hopeful that they will continue to survive. If they do, I think they could provide me with a profit.
Everything else, short of them going out of business before they can bring their product to market is, in my opinion, just noise to be ignored. I am not particularly interested in how long it takes them to bring LIGHT to market or the difficulties they may have along the way because I believe that if it works it could win a reasonable share of a large market when it does eventually get there.

I've read TW's writings and he has yet to tell me anything that changes my mind about AVO. If you need his advice, then good luck to you. I prefer to rely on my own research.