Active Risk Share Discussion Threads

[steve517757] 20/4/2006 11:59

Steelman, nearly got my 560, hope your stop did not kick in!

[bigbertie] 18/4/2006 11:38

dismal start to week - maybe caused by worries about higher fuel prices?

[steelman01] 12/4/2006 20:36

Thanks for the input guys...However I did take the plunge at 581.5p.Let's see how it goes..Stop set at 564p so I gotta hope you don't get your 560p Steve..Not this movement anyways :-)

[steve517757] 12/4/2006 14:15

Steelman,

No expert - but I am looking to get in at about 560 - it it doesn't happen will look elsewhere. Be suprised if it goes below 545, cant see it going below 540. Also cant see it returning to 660 without very good news, like winning SWT franchise or similar. If I can get in at 560 - will look to get out around 610.

[chirpy chappy] 12/4/2006 12:59

I reckon it will turn back up between £5.80 and £5.70 so yeah...buying anytime now could be a good idea :-)

If it goes below £5.50 then sell....just the way I see things but then I seem to have been wrong more times than I have been right recently,

never mind :-)

[steelman01] 11/4/2006 10:34

Worth a punt at this price ??

[bigbertie] 17/2/2006 15:16

IC article today says bus & train cos may be next takeover fashion because of the scope for leveraging their debt. Merrill apparently favours Go-Ahead and Arriva as likely targets.

edit - having said that the share price graph has just plunged! what timing. Go-Ahead has announced profits fall due to higher fuel costs.

[laconian] 31/1/2006 12:00

Same here. The price has reached close enough to a limit I have created for my own use (see previous comment 2nd above, ref Resistance Line). The good news this morning was definately useful, sped things up, although I was a bit suprised with the rate of increase. Maybe there is more into their actions than I have percieved and the price may increase, I am not sure so I have closed. For now I am happy with the extra money!

[tommy ten chins] 31/1/2006 10:28

Just sold my holding.
Originally bought below £3



They've jumped due to the sale to Northgate and I don't think their growth is too exciting over the next few years so I'm out to more exciting things.

From Digitalook

Year Ending Sales (£m) Pre-tax (£m) EPS
31-Dec-05 1,630.77 106.92 43.31p
31-Dec-06 1,735.28 108.54 42.90p
31-Dec-07 1,839.16 118.48 46.66p

What The Brokers Say
Strong Buy 2
Buy 0
Neutral 4
Sell 0
Strong Sell 3
Total 9


TT

[laconian] 24/1/2006 10:46

Hi gentlemen,

I can not offer much in the way of fundamentals, except to say that since 2000 ARI's growth seems to be slow but certain.

Date Profit/£m
31/12/00 72.1
31/12/01 76
31/12/02 80.6
31/12/03 83.8
31/12/04 98.4
31/12/05 forecast 110.5
31/12/06 forecast 113.83
31/12/07 forecast 123.99

(data taken from Sharescope)

2000 was not a good year. And turnover growth has not been perfectly smooth either.

So what does this mean? Well there are other fundamental which we could look at. But at this point I am tempted to look at the charts. I have not realised how to post a chart here yet. So I will have to read off the values to you.

Support lines found via "joining the dots" between the following points:

a) price on 29/04/2005
b) price on 21/10/2005

A broken Support line:

a) price on 26/08/2005
b) price on 29/11/2005

As for a top resistance line:

a) price on 04/08/2005
b) price on 12/12/2005

These are only two points for each, but I think that once drawn, you will see that these lines seems strong possibilities for the support and resistance lines.

Currently we are in a downward trend, which has been exaggerated at the end (recently) by bad news from the States and the Far Eastern market (should not affect ARI badly in the mid term). However, I do not believe that ARI can go much further down, since it is currently at the bottom of the larger trend going upwards. Therefore, I expect a turning point soon (soon both in time and in price).

This may all sound like rubbish to you, which I will not mind, because I may be incorrect, but I believe the above to be correct. I have entered recently into a long position, accounting the risk for any residual falls, which I doubt will occur, but I must factor in, else I will not sleep well at night.

I hope that helps. At least you have my point of view. Please feel free to give you opinion.

[tommy ten chins] 17/1/2006 18:46

Sea and Sky,

I've held these for years but am recently disappointed with the fall off in share rise. Do you think I should hold?


TT

[sea and sky] 17/1/2006 14:07

as above - no thoughts anyone?

[sea and sky] 16/1/2006 12:26

this thread is a little lacking in action i must say. I am thinking of going Long on Arriva. they seem to have weathered higher prices and with all their purchases and deals they look well poised to bounce off the 200 day ma now.

any thoughts from those in the know would be appreciated. (i like the EPS uptick from last time and the fact they are back on rising revenue too).

[pallett] 05/8/2005 16:43

Funny no one is commenting on the purchases that are being accummulated. No posting's since 5th Feb. is a long time of no comments!

[standish11] 09/2/2005 19:48

With the price of fuel having fallen and then stabilised in recent weeks and no bad news re contract losses reported why should this share be shorted?Of course if the FTSE falls sharply this share will be hit along with many others but that will be due to sentiment rather than fundamentals.If you expect the FTSE to fall you should short the index.

[rifraf1] 09/2/2005 10:47

this is going.... down big time...... has had alot of.. down grades by brokers.
....level 2 looking very week ....15000 want to buy 63000 want to sell.
the.... bears.... are going to get hold of this one.

[tommy ten chins] 25/1/2005 23:40

Shakeb

I don't know, it just seems to recover each time and keep going.

I bought these years ago and wish all my shares did so well.

Looking at the fundamentals I would not buy now, and I can't remember why I bought all those eons ago.

I read recently "understand your losses and your gains, and you will learn..." but to me this is just a lucky punt.

Cheers

TT

PS I suppose I'll only sell on a trailing stop loss which I'll raise 20% below the share price.

[shakeb] 18/1/2005 14:40

Tommy, how soon do you see this recovering.

[tommy ten chins] 18/1/2005 14:36

So I guess we don't like this purchase of Meadowhall then?

[pembury] 11/1/2005 13:42

sold out into esy.

[pembury] 07/1/2005 10:12

still hanging in for med long term. possibly profit taking back of strong run- also think selling was wife of director- may be for personal reasons?. note director at skyepharma got taken to the cleaners by his ex.in divorce proceedings- if the case?

[tommy ten chins] 06/1/2005 20:19

Standish11

Thanks for that, I was wondering...

TT

[standish11] 06/1/2005 18:01

Heavy selling today.Director has sold substantial number of shares and this probably precipitated the fall and aggravated by sudden 2 dollars per barrel increase in Crude Oil price as a result of OPEC proposed output cut.

[neefax] 04/1/2005 22:44

Well, Daily Mail said they were a favourite to be tipped, but nope, they have'nt been 'tipped' so far as I'm aware anyway.

[pembury] 04/1/2005 14:13

think reason for this was sell off profit taking from £5.30 down to £5.04, then bounce back to current levels. any views on this run further to go?.