||STERLING PART SHS NPV
||EPS - Basic
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Aberdeen Prv Share Discussion Threads
Showing 151 to 173 of 175 messages
|Thanks for reply Skyship.
Although sitting on a large cash ratio, i'm holding off buying all but the most obvious bargains at the mo.
I have an aversion to buying when the markets have risen. I'm most comfortable buying after a market panic when the tide has gone out for all stocks.
I am therefore hoping for a Trump victory come November 9 :)|
|Hi spob - no, no particular target, though interesting to note that at the current NAV the discount falls to just over 20% at 115p. Still, I expect that NAV to improve further if the $ holds its strength.
I have a problem with portfolio concentration. Difficult to find other things to buy outside the PE sector, so slightly regret taking profits in HVPE & ICGT recently...I would like to get the latter back!|
|Do you have a target price in mind Skyship ?
If the discount narrowed to under 20% (not far away now) would you be looking to pull out ?|
|An interesting and detailed research article in the 22nd Oct. Economist magazine – a Briefing on Private Equity which reveals the importance and size of the PE sector. In 1980 there were just 24 PE firms; there are now 6628, of which 620 were founded in 2015!
One of the many statistics is the uninvested dry powder figure looking for a home - $1.3trn – ungeared. Small wonder that the option of buying up the few listed players is now on the table; though after PEQ & SVI the opportunities are extremely limited. Altamir (40% discount) might be a good play; but personally I wouldn’t now want to buy a Euro-listed trust at the current exchange rate…
Based upon practical MCap stats (not too small) & accessibility (precludes HVPE & NBPE which are effectively controlled by their Managers), the possible candidates to follow PEQ & SVI might be:
ICGT…….658……R30;.798……;…..17.5% (NAV at July)
HGT……1430… ….1580………….9.5% (NAV at Sept.)
JPEL…… .110….……143…R30;……23.1% (NAV at Aug.)
PEY……..830……R30;…999……….16.9% (NAV at Aug.)
PIN…….1640……R30;1956……;….16.2% (NAV at Aug.)
SEP……230;276……;…..339……….18.6% (NAV at Sept.)
I traded out of ICGT @ 660p just recently, so mentally not willing to buy back in there just yet. So Best Bet IMO has to be JPEL. A difficult one for me as I already have a very profitable 10% allocation! Still, very tempted to buy more… An excellent buy for those not already in there.
Best Buy elsewhere – ie beyond the above plays and beyond the rather specialist 30%+ discount plays (LMS, MVI & OCL) – has to be APEF. At 107p they are on a 25.0% discount to an August NAV of 142.74p. They have a young portfolio. They also provide a yield of 3.74%.|
|Yes - really great news. A dividend of a MINIMUM 4p, so a yield now at 104p of 3.9% and a discount of c28%.
At the Annual General Meeting held today, 13 September, the Board of Aberdeen Private Equity Fund Limited announced the following:
-- Going forward, in the absence of unforeseen circumstances, the Company expects to pay minimum total dividends of 4p per share per annum (2016 - 2.2p), commencing with 2 dividends of 2p per share relating to the financial year to 31 March 2017
-- An annual continuation resolution to be put to each AGM, commencing with the AGM in 2017
-- A substantially reduced, and simplified, management fee*
The Board also noted that the good NAV performance referred to in the Report and Accounts, had continued since the year end, with a further rise of 7.5% in NAV per share to 29 July 2016 (143.32p per share). The Board continues to remain optimistic on the investment portfolio's ability to deliver long term investment performance, and believes that, when combined with the increased focus on co-investments, the changes announced above should enhance the appeal of the Company to all Shareholders, both current and prospective.|
|Looks like they have had to increase the dividend to prevent some level of rebellion re the continuation vote. Also agreed to reduce fees, balance is still in favour of the investment manager but perhaps time to invest in view of the substantial discount.|
|Sure, plenty of PE cash looking for a home. APEF using the pretty standard and usless verbage for Continuation. They should be doing a lot more to provide and release shareholder value; something along the lines of a 3.5% of NAV annual distribution as a minimum - as NBPE introduced 3yrs ago.|
|I meant the Private Equity Industry ( secondary buyouts)|
|"Plenty of money in PEQ looking to buy" !
Don't quite understand that last bit. PEQ, as I'm sure you know, is the object of a takeover to put it out of its misery...|
|Voting against continuation but likely to fail as fees more important to managers. Absolute nonsense that voting for would reduce sale prices. Business's are worth what they fetch. Plenty of money in PEQ looking to buy.|
|I voted against Continuation.|
|Good to know in advance I guess. But would be helpful if they said something like "..But by 2019 the company may be in a position to make returns to shareholders".|
|The Continuation Vote is on the 13th September. The article below was taken from the latest report (results 31st March 2016) and seems to suggest that the board have the backing of the larger shareholders to continue the trust.
In 2011 the Company’s Articles of Incorporation were
amended to introduce a three-yearly continuation vote with
the first vote being in 2013. This was passed on 25
September 2013, with support from 99.9% of the voting
shareholders with 74.7% of all shareholders having voted. At
the Annual General Meeting convened for 13 September
2016 Resolution 7 proposes that the Company continue as
an Investment Company in accordance with Article 126.
In view of the investment returns now being delivered
following the renewal of the investment programme in 2010,
the premia to book value being achieved by our investee
funds on exits from underlying portfolio companies, and the
resulting distributions being received from our portfolio, your
Board believes that it is in the shareholders’ interests that the
Company continue. Having taken soundings from our larger
shareholders, the Board believes that the majority of
shareholders would not support a discontinuation at this
time because this would lead to a portfolio run off, a process
which is likely to be protracted and where values ultimately
realised may be adversely affected as a result of the
Company being known to be a forced seller of its assets.
Accordingly, your Board recommends that shareholders vote
in favour of the Company’s continuation. A further
continuation vote will be held at the Company’s AGM in
|The Dollar rising against the Pound has had a big effect on the NAV.
I'm now using Morning Star as Hargreaves Lansdown is a bit of a mess at the moment.
Today they show APEF's NAV at 144.84p which = a discount of -40.28%.|
|30thMar - Non Exec Dir David Copperwaite bought 22.7k @ 87.9p, taking his holding up to 40k.|
|34.7% NAV discount @ 87.5p:
24 March 2016
Net Asset Value, February 2016
As at the close of business on 29 February 2016, the Net Asset Value of Aberdeen Private Equity Fund Limited was as follows:-
Share class Net Asset Net Asset Performance
29(th) February 29(th) January
------------- ------------------ ----------------- ------------
GBP Shares 134.06 pence 131.78 pence 1.73%
------------- ------------------ ----------------- ------------|
|Thnx for that|
|Hi SKYSHIP, Today the estimated NAV is 132.64p which = a discount of -34.60%.|
|KT - could you post where we now stand on HL's NAV estimate?|
|I may get back in.|
|WELCOME PROFITS FROM LIQUIDATING PRIVATE EQUITY TRUSTS
Due to insufficient size (a lack of critical mass to compete), HPEQ was the first PE Trust to enter Voluntary Liquidation – now finished and delisted.
CDI, LMS, MTH & NRI all followed; and all are in various stages of the liquidation process, with the last three all providing shareholders with profitable Tenders at full NAV.
DNE are the latest to declare liquidation, just two weeks ago. After the brief initial announcement (link below) we should see more detail with the Prelims due on 18th March; thereafter a full Circular will be issued in May. After an initial jump to 355p, the shares have drifted back to 340p; and IMO represent a great buy ahead of those Prelims.
With AUM of just £144m, APEF surely should be next in line on the liquidation route. Of course there is a Continuation Vote coming up this September; so if APEF prefer not to go that route then they’ve got to start making a very good case as to why shareholders should ignore the fact that, at 87p, APEF trade at a 34% NAV discount to the 131.8p NAV and offer a mere 2.5% Yield.
So with a degree of Marketing surely required; and the possibility that Aberdeen will decide to do the right thing (though being Aberdeen – don’t hold your breath!); and the possibility of the CV being triggered, it is worth running some numbers.
Over the past 4yrs APEF has clocked an annual NAV growth of 7.7%, well below most of their peers; so past performance won’t help their defence. However, let’s for the sake of it project a 4yr liquidation programme from October 2016. Let’s be conservative and start the NAV at today’s level of 131.8p. Project forward 4yrs @ a lower growth rate of 5%pa and we get to a final liquidation level of 160p.
Drop that all into a spreadsheet and we see a Gross Redemption Yield of 13.95%pa (ignoring any continuing 2.5% dividend yield).
So, this is all early conjecture; but when I see a return of anything over 10%, I’m interested. When I see a possible return of 14%, then I’ll follow this one further, especially as there is so much profitable precedent from these PE trust liquidation plays. Only CDI has let the side down.
We’ll see where we go from here…in the meantime start your research from this excellent EDISON Research report:
EDISON Report on APEF – Nov’15
|So the NAV for Jan is 131.78p which shows that the Hargreaves Lansdown figure is quite accurate as it showed 131.19p last month.
Todays figure shows an estimated NAV of 132.96p which = a discount of -36.82%.
I still believe that most of this movement is because of sterling weakness. Don't really see the share price going too high until there is a change in sentiment for PE companies or we get the autumn continuation vote. KT.|
|Its a good start. I think we will have to wait until next months NAV declaration as this covers the period from Dec to Jan when sterling dropped off.
Hargreaves Lansdown is showing todays estimated NAV at 131.19p which = a -33.30% discount.
It will be interesting to see how accurate this estimate is. KT.|