Abbey Nat. Share Discussion Threads

[impecunious] 19/8/2004 19:26

SAN have been getting a lot of criticism in the press of late, particularly regarding corporate governance. Could some PR outfit be paving way on behalf of an eventual rival bidder so the latter appears in an even more favourable light, rescuing shareholders at the eleventh hour?

Evening Standard tonight alleges an outline deal between SAN and RBOS whereby SAN will outsource the Abey back office to RBOS.

[raxzi] 19/8/2004 10:39

wendsworth

It's a matter of supply and demand. An increase in price means that in terms of quantity there are more shares wanted than there are shares becoming available from sellers. The difference doesn't have to be very large for the price to rise. There's also a dividend myopia syndrome in that dividends often appear to be being ignored when conditions are exceptional. What you have to take into account are
1. There is a bid and you know its approx value
2. There's a possibility of a counter bid
3. There may be a bidding contest
4. What has happened in similar recent situations.
5. The 'buying' may be uninformed sentiment or there might be an element of stock building in which case this is being done on an informed basis.
I wouldn't think that a third party would build up a speculative stake because the risk would be too great and MMs make their money in a risk free way.

The hayday of the bidding contest was the Safeway, Guinness bids for Distillers (which incidentally landed people in court and some in jail!).

Realistically you have to ask yourself if SCH are strong contenders or if they would walk away at the prospect of having to pay a higher price. Opinion seems to be that they would give it just one tweak so allow say 7.5% on top of the 550p approx on the table and we arrive just above today's price.

Another suitor might take a similar view and come along with a knock out bid on a take it or leave it basis. Such a strategy may suggest 620p.

You need to work out at what odds you are willing to play the game. Assuming you hold ANL then you might be happy to take a certain 590p on the assumption that you are gaining 40p at the risk of losing 30p.

If you think the odds of a counter bid are less than evens then logic tells you to do so.

You may figure things out differently while still applying these or similar thoughts.

Good luck.

[wendsworth] 18/8/2004 21:10

Judging from today's performance (with ANLgoing ex-dividend) the MMs believe this is going north of 600p.

[raxzi] 18/8/2004 12:45

watacraig3
Went ex-div this morning which accounts for the fall.

[wtacraig3] 18/8/2004 11:56

When does ANL go ex-div with the 8.33p?

[dm1] 18/8/2004 08:47

Thanks pvb, so ANL effectively up at the moment. :-) DM1

[dm1] 18/8/2004 08:29

Sorry, an elementry question, I did first look at the Abbey website but couldn't see info. How much in pence is the ex-div worth please? T.I.A. DM1

[raxzi] 17/8/2004 11:23

Quiet day, then somebody traded a million shares and the price has moved up.
Balance of probs IMO is that anything above 585 is worth taking and under 570 is worth buying.

[markth] 17/8/2004 05:48

lol maddox

[maddox] 16/8/2004 23:07

markth,

How did they know it was in the attic? Spooky.

Regards, Maddox

[markth] 16/8/2004 21:23

wendsworth: hope you're right, sooner the better for me to exit this turkey. I only have it because I'd lost the share cert, then I got a letter from these Georgeson Shareholder sharks who make a living re-uniting people with their certificates, when I saw how much they wanted I went and looked for it in the attic and voila, five hundred shares lol

[wendsworth] 16/8/2004 20:16

markth: I'm sure you will !! My timetable is a little shorter than yours - and reckon HBOS will make its move within the next 2/3 weeks.

[markth] 16/8/2004 14:13

It is said that 90% of all Mergers and Acquisitions fail to deliver on the promised benefits. Many of those which do, deliver most of the benefits through cost savings from eliminating duplication. This is especially true in the Banking sector, RBS' purchase of Nat West being a good example.

Anyway, if there are to be different bidders for Abbey, there are different synergies and different duplication savings to be made depending on how the potential buyer's own operations are structured. So, in my view, it is likely that we will see quite a spread in the bids (assuming that Santander is not going to have the field to itself of course).

For example, HBOS and Abbey both have big mortgage books. There must be quite a lot of money to be saved in combining them. Therefore a larger price than Santander may be palatable for HBOS.

I am holding this one as I think there will be a bidding war. It takes a long time to run the numbers, so I don't think it'll happen tomorrow, but by the end of next month I hope to see bids of >>>£6 on the table.

[wtacraig3] 16/8/2004 09:27

Very interesting 'Scotsman' article DM1 - thanks for the link. Interesting that HBOS may be prepared to go to 660p, and a bid from HSBC would be profitable for them up to 715p.

[standarddeviation] 15/8/2004 19:32

Bf

Agreed !

sd

[bigface] 15/8/2004 19:25

It gets worse and worse for Abbey what a shame they were such a good little building society too. At this rate shareholdrs will be grateful for SCH's meagre offer.

[standarddeviation] 15/8/2004 17:14

Police investigate apparent suicide of Abbey employee after Kroll probe-report

LONDON (AFX) - An employee of Abbey National PLC apparently committed
suicide after being subjected to questioning in an internal investigation led by
corporate detective agency Kroll, The Sunday Times newspaper reported.
The matter is now in the hands of the Metropolitan Polic, the paper said.
It said Kroll had been called in after an anonymous document was sent to
senior managers at the bank containing allegations of impropriety regarding
contracts awarded to third parties. The author threatened to post the document
to 100 City institutions if the claims were not examined.
An internal probe led by Karen Fortunato, the company secretary, found that
the contracts had been awarded fairly, according to the newspaper.
It said Abbey called in Kroll to establish who had compiled the document.
Richard Chang, 48, fell from the fifth floor balcony at the bank's Triton
Square headquarters in London four weeks ago, the newspaper said, quoting police
sources.
Chang's family are understood to have engaged a solicitor to carry out an
independent investigation into the circumstances surrounding his death, it said.
mbe/ ak

[standarddeviation] 15/8/2004 17:13

Police investigate apparent suicide of Abbey employee after Kroll probe-report

LONDON (AFX) - An employee of Abbey National PLC apparently committed
suicide after being subjected to questioning in an internal investigation led by
corporate detective agency Kroll, The Sunday Times newspaper reported.
The matter is now in the hands of the Metropolitan Polic, the paper said.
It said Kroll had been called in after an anonymous document was sent to
senior managers at the bank containing allegations of impropriety regarding
contracts awarded to third parties. The author threatened to post the document
to 100 City institutions if the claims were not examined.
An internal probe led by Karen Fortunato, the company secretary, found that
the contracts had been awarded fairly, according to the newspaper.
It said Abbey called in Kroll to establish who had compiled the document.
Richard Chang, 48, fell from the fifth floor balcony at the bank's Triton
Square headquarters in London four weeks ago, the newspaper said, quoting police
sources.
Chang's family are understood to have engaged a solicitor to carry out an
independent investigation into the circumstances surrounding his death, it said.
mbe/ ak

[wendsworth] 15/8/2004 15:44

I'm sure that ultimately holders patience will be rewarded .
625-650P has always been my target range.
Just sit tight !

[dm1] 15/8/2004 07:46

HBOS bid at 650p ?

[surfcontrol] 14/8/2004 13:36

Takeover bid for Surfcontrol (SRF) imminent...

Current Surfcontrol price : 520p (market cap. £160m / $295m)

Prospective Takeover Bid : 730p (Cash bid of £225m / $415m)

Bid Premium : 210p (+ 40%)

Bid Timing : Before Surfcontrol Q4 results on 7th September

Bidder : Advised by Deutsche Bank / Goldman Sachs

[bigface] 14/8/2004 08:48

What is the state of the Abbey's Pension Fund - they don't seem to be doing that well running other peoples through Scottish Provident - I saw in the Guardian that they are not paying out again!! What a disgrace.

[dm1] 14/8/2004 06:46

HBOS are likely to get Abbey green light

See:

[sipptrader] 12/8/2004 13:19

Thanks DM1, unfortunately i was referring to the sale of their SSAS/SIPP business branded James Hay.