Abacus Share Discussion Threads

[mesquida] 09/10/2008 09:54

Big buyer around this morning - perhaps one of the suitors is about to go hostile.

[mt67] 03/10/2008 11:05

Now trading NAV ex intangibles/goodwill. Mountain of debt for sure, covenants generally are EBITDA X 2/3 interest. Interset c.£4m = £8-12m. By my reckoning ABU made £16m operating profits Sep'07, not sure but think could add depreciation charge of c£1m to that, maybe wrong. Year just ended will be similar but going forward could be tough.

My guess is this business should be able to hold it's own and banks should be supportive as this company has an underlying strong business model which will flourish in a more stable environment in 12months time. I would like to think ABU if they anticipate a problem with their debt/interest repayments they would be renegotiating the covenants like housebuilders have been doing. Inflation must be easing (it is in Euro) so interest rates must come down.

The div could/should be passed to pay down debt which wouldn't be a bad move in the current climate. Predators now see substantial value here, so a decent premium could be announced in the next few weeks.

[jimmycarter] 26/9/2008 20:51

It has offers, not just one which makes this abit more appealing even in this very downbeat market. I am not sure what value the company is after but by the suggestion in the RNS it will be reasonably higher then the current price. In this market around 30-35p mark maybe. In a bull market 50-60p+. Still investor value here just needs one of those bids to come into fruition. Maybe news this comming week? More then one bids may mean a higher bid price?

[philjeans] 22/9/2008 08:02

8tr; wrong actually old boy - none of the buyers in the businesses quoted in my post above held stakes in their targets cos.

Not really a problem in current markets - P/Is have been so beaten up, a bid is usually voted through!

[8trader] 21/9/2008 19:48

If somebody was seriously going to pay 60p i would think they would
be building a stake upto 30% on the cheap first.

[mt67] 20/9/2008 10:32

" Notwithstanding the current trading environment, the Board of Abacus believes that the Company's share price has failed for some time to reflect the underlying value of the business and now materially undervalues the Company."

Why would management accept 25p when the above clearly states they believe the current value materially undervalues the company. Anything above 50p imo still undervalues this company massively as in 1-2 years time the macro environment should be improving along with a higher share price anticipating better times ahead, but bear markets throw up these low valuations for predators to snap up vastly undervalued companies. Of course debt is the concern but i believee ABU will come through and profits will be substantial in the future but i guess we will have to see whether management are negotiating from a position of strengh or if their hand is weak.

If the share price is 25p and the mkt believed that to be the price investors/pi's would now be dumping in case the deal doesn't happen...there clearly is upside from here...how much is anyones guess lets hope management obtain a much higher price.

[nigelwestm] 19/9/2008 13:29

This article suggests three potential suitors: Arrow, Avnet and Future Electronics.



What will any bidder pay per share? I suggest 25p - i.e. what the market is valuing the company at.

Hope I'm wrong, of course...

[jhan66] 19/9/2008 11:43

Can we have some wild speculation & hyperbole please. Everyone else flying today, this one ought to do something.

He's a taster. Top 25 distributors, though why RS are 6 & 25 I've no idea



25 Global Distribution List

1 Avnet
2 Arrow
3 WPG Holdings
4 Future Electronics
5 Bell Microproducts
6 Electrocomponents
7 Premier Farnell
8 TTI/Mouser Electronics
9 Digi-Key
10 Nu Horizons Electronics
11 Richardson Electronics
12 DAC Group
13 Excelpoint Technology
14 Jaco Electronics
15 Sager Electronics
16 A.E. Petsche
17 Dependable Component Supply
18 PEI-Genesis
19 Master Distributors
20 Electro Sonic
21 Powell Electronics
22 All American Semiconductor
23 Bisco Industries
24 Wes-Garde Components Group
25 RS Electronics

[philjeans] 19/9/2008 09:02

Still a bargain for one of the large multinational electrical wholesalers - nearly £300M of T/O for say £40M cash.

Lots of cost savings once they merge; and margins can be jacked up to cream a very nice net profit

Gotta be worth at least 60p.

[jimmycarter] 18/9/2008 18:39

Yep looks good. This is a descent company just has quite abit of debt which has hampered it in these testing times. A big predetar is getting a bargain IMO at any price below £1. Wait and see. Would expect offer 30-60p?

[nigelwestm] 18/9/2008 14:49

I see Legal & General have sold quite a few shares yesterday. Strange! Given the way that the City works these days, you'd have thought that they'd have been tipped off about the bid discussions...

Is this a rescue, and what are the chances that Abacus will go bust if a takeover doesn't go ahead?

[philjeans] 18/9/2008 09:48

Yes; some nosey buyers in today - I can see an easy doubler from here.

[jimmycarter] 18/9/2008 08:59

Looks pretty likely they are going to be taken over. Steadyly upwards from here?

[philjeans] 18/9/2008 08:28

No - there's a premium here all right - very big business still making good profits. Euro strength has hit them a bit but longer term attractions are intact.

[simon gordon] 18/9/2008 08:26

Could be a take-under...

[jhan66] 18/9/2008 08:20

`Number of companies' usually sounds like a distress sell to management or VC's, but hopefully this one will be a European distributor with strength of Euro helping out

[philjeans] 18/9/2008 08:13

Take out price will be AT LEAST 60P per share so bags of headroom here yet.

[mt67] 18/9/2008 08:08

yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

Might be a doubler from here.

Good luck phil and all holders.

[philjeans] 18/9/2008 07:44

Whoopee!

In takeover talks "with a number of companies who have approached Abacus".

Patience and faith guys.

[philjeans] 17/9/2008 15:16

More chunky buys; against the general trend this week.

Heading very much higher - figures on track?

[jimmycarter] 11/9/2008 16:54

Thanks Cyber.

[cyberpost] 08/9/2008 16:24

jimmy... it has AT trade flag.

and ABU is an order book stock.

[philjeans] 08/9/2008 16:16

Another nice buy today; ABU issued a trading update in early October last year - that should determine the price direction. Either a massive correction or further falls.