Abacus Share Discussion Threads

[nigelwestm] 21/5/2008 11:03

Given that there hasn't been a great deal of activity in terms of actual share trading over the past week, I suppose the market makers could have been reducing the price in order to hoover up some shares ahead of the results.

I notice that the bid touched 58.5p today but has since come back up again. Maybe Bletherer has a point about eveything being okay if the share price holds above the breakout level of 58p then...

[jimmycarter] 20/5/2008 23:26

Your concerns are shared although I am probably more optimistic on this one. Market environment is crucial obviously in addtion to what comes out of the results and forward looking statements.

Not sure 58p is the worry here. Certainly if it gets close to 50p that would be of great concern. This has moved and resistance is there. It is close to results now and if the general market does not fall too greatly in the next few days this might hold and then it all depends on trading statments, results and dividend news.

It is just one of these shares that could fly(IMO) or at least have a steady incline from here on. But if the ftse fall below 5900 ish then maybe overall environment could damage most companies. and if results are not particularly positive I would fear for the worst. Wait and see.

[nigelwestm] 20/5/2008 22:55

Yeah, I suppose the FTSE falling almost 3% today didn't help. But even so, I am concerned that this could drop back below 58p...

[jimmycarter] 20/5/2008 18:44

NigelwestM

Markets are all over the place today. To be honest I am surprised the ftse saw 6300. I know there have always been concerns with the current climate. 5200, 5500 are figures that have branded about for the fste. If things do turn sour then no matter what abacus comes out with things loook gloomy.

It is difficult to judge too much until results come out. On the dividend front - well if it does get cut this could still be good long term play.

No assurances with any compnay - not even supposed safe haven's - such as banks.

Having said all this this could be very rewarding but as with anything like this risks are present too.

[nigelwestm] 20/5/2008 16:53

Sure about that? The shares ended up falling further today. Makes me suspicious about next week's interims.

The trading statement on 1 April was quite terse come to think of it. And there was no mention about the company's dividend intentions...

[bletherer] 20/5/2008 11:01

Rapid rise, hit key resistance, retracing. Quite normal behaviour, I'd say. Still in a short-term uptrend currently so "other things being equal" another bash at resistance around 75p is currently the most likely outcome. I would guess it will hold in the range between 58-75 until we get results, hopefully nearer the upper than the lower end.

[nigelwestm] 20/5/2008 10:27

Results only a week or so away. Given the in-line trading statements of recent months I would have thought the shares would be climbing, but they appear to be falling back. Any explanations?

[jimmycarter] 15/5/2008 15:13

gone up quickly in last week so retracement was always very likley. Expect to be nearer 70p nearer results.

[nigelwestm] 15/5/2008 14:28

Shares have lost a lot of ground today. Tree shake ahead of in-line results perhaps?

[bletherer] 15/5/2008 08:42

The pullback from around 75 was almost inevitable given how important an area this is, but that was a nice run-up to that point, easily the most powerful rally we've seen since the bottom fell out at the start of last year. Key resistance levels in my book are 75, 100 and 130. Actually it can go all the way back to 130 while still not breaking out of the long-term (multiyear) downtrend, which is why this stock is pretty dangerous for bears as well as bulls (it wouldn't need too much good news for ABU to claw back a significant amount of lost ground). At any rate I mark it as short-term bullish so long as it holds the recently established uptrend, which in practice means holding above the breakout level at around 58p.

[philjeans] 15/5/2008 08:31

JC ; you're right of course, but it's a bit more than the results - it's current and future trading forecasts that will determine the s/p.

The company have been very open and honest about recent business - giving an "in line" report back in Jan on first four months of current f/y - and again in April WHEN IT CONFIRMED THAT THE HALF YEAR FIGURES FOR SIX MONTHS TO 31/3 WERE IN LINE WITH CO EXPECTATIONS!

So we know the half year figures will be good, profitable and the debt paid down by normal scheduled repayments AND a big lump off from sale of surplus properties. That should lead to dividend declaration of about 14% pa based on last time and current m/c.

What we DON'T know for sure , is how the order book looks now - both in UK and across Europe. Comments about that will be critical. My own thoughts are that sales will be holding up presently - we're not in a recession (although the papers would have you think that!) and trade continues to grow.

I'm holding for continuing strong recovery here - this smells like a very good bet still and could also be a takeover prospect now the balance sheet is clean and profitable.

[jimmycarter] 14/5/2008 19:27

It has moved on since its sub 50's days. It has stable footing above its lows and just awaits positive results for a ongoing upturn in share price You can never sound wholely confident in these markets but with the past RNS and the chart in itself I am optimistic about where this is heading. Some sectors doing better then others in this climate. I am hoping this is the case for abacus(electonic equipment/components). You must be catuious with any stock in these environments but the research I have done gives me some confidence here. If things are ok or better then ok I think we will see this rise above 75p or even moving beyond £1 in the near term. Much depends on these results.

[philjeans] 14/5/2008 16:49

Nice tick up at the end; to be honest some profit taking is normal and expected.

But if the share price hardens up to the results, we know we're on to a good thing!

[nigelwestm] 14/5/2008 16:43

But there hasn't been a profit warning. Last two trading updates said trading was in line with expectations...

[mt67] 13/5/2008 15:13

Only thing predictive is the uncertain nature of stockmarkets. What is predictive is like buses when a profit warning comes around the corner another two won't be far behind!

investopia do you live in an imaginary world where everything you see ie the economy is perfect or are you wearing rose tinted glasses/both in fact i imagine...stupid boy!

I suggest a handle change wouldn't go amiss as you appear to of taken leave of your senses man, try utopia kind of more a propriate in your case.

[investopia] 13/5/2008 12:21

If you're shorting now, you're not taking the predictive nature of stockmarkets fully into account in my opinion.

[philjeans] 13/5/2008 11:44

MT - you've lost heavily on your recent shorts; close now my son or lose a lot more.

These are going up.

[mt67] 13/5/2008 11:36

One or two now getting carried away with this suckers rally, stupid bletherers. The slowdown is coming to an economy near you. Rising unemployment will gather momentum and hey presto European recession in 3-6 months, profit warnings abound.

Just opened some shorts as the DIRE balance sheet will have to be shored up, RIGHTS ISSUE on the way.

TARGET 20p

AIMHO

[philjeans] 13/5/2008 08:52

Directors clearly can't buy in the closed period; could do after the results are out - be interesting to see if they do.

If the divi is held (and no reason why it won't be) a lot of punters and instis will want in to reap the huge yield.

Looking good.

[rabbrooks] 12/5/2008 16:43

A real vote of confidence would be a small buying spree by the directors. They hold very few shares. The price has changed with very little buying which suggests to me that they insiders know that figures are going to be relatively satisfactory.Let's see some real buying.

[bletherer] 12/5/2008 16:36

Lol, MT67 seems to have gone a bit quiet.

[philjeans] 12/5/2008 14:23

Looking exceptionally strong today - this change in sentiment over the past month is astounding!

From a dog to a thoroughbred - now they all want to buy after the bloody thing is up 50%.

Still; very happy with my lot and will hold until real value is demonstrated - and that's well into three figures.

[nigelwestm] 12/5/2008 10:13

If they want my shares, the price is a pound...

[philjeans] 12/5/2008 09:53

Well, there's the first short term target hit; now some pull-back no doubt before we rush up to a quid.

Still very cheap based on forecast earnings and dividend.

[philjeans] 12/5/2008 09:02

Who cares what their eyeware looks like - seems they want my shares!