Abacus Share Discussion Threads

[ba5hir is back] 26/11/2007 11:00

Another low today results out tomorrow does not look good.

[ba5hir is back] 23/11/2007 10:50

The co has intangibles of £75 million and ther nett asset value per share exluding intangibles is approx 12p !!!

Now if sales are deteriorating the co willm have trouble servicing its debt therefore the dividend could be cut.

With results out Tuesday it smells bad. Looks like someone has acted having seen a snippet.

[value stock picker] 22/11/2007 23:19

The dividend is now 12% so it concludes me to think has the market got wind of a cut or is this just a consequence of the malaise sweeping the general market.

The sell-off has been indiscriminate with share prices obliterated on slowdown concerns across the whole market. The p/e ratio for Sep '07 is likely to be in the region of 5 if management guidance is to believed but of course historic. The FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENT will determine share price direction and it may well be a case of battening down the hatches.

Imho if ABU fall further this will prove an exceptional opportunity to accumulate on the cheap looking 2/3 years out hence i will be adding after Tuesday on further weakness.

[jhan66] 22/11/2007 18:54

ABU is one I follow with interest. Results out on Tuesday & they better be good the way the market is acting at the moment.
I don't hold but one day hope to trade a profit out them to pay for my Eurodis loss. But I'm fearful of buying yet. Net Debt has gone from £29.1M, £44.8M £67M over last three reporting periods. I'll be watching to see the next figure

[jimi2] 22/11/2007 17:31

Still holding and still astounded. Whenever I think abu can't go any lower it manages to lose another 50% from somewhere!

FWIW i don't think the current weakness in the share price has anything company specific in it. Nearly all my small cap shares have taken a pounding recently even those that have released excellent results/trading statements have been creamed. In the current climate all small caps are fair game for shorters and until confidence generally and buyers return even decent results on the 27/11 may not turn this around.

It would also be nice to see the directors show a bit of confidence with some decent buys after the results - that might help.

On fundamentals this looks a stonking buy but at the moment fundamentals don't mean a thing - for those with patience(probably quite a lot of patience) this should imo eventually come good.

[nigelwestm] 22/11/2007 16:33

I bought a small amount the other day, based on what I thought would be a 10% dividend yield. If the divi is maintained, then these will bounce back up in my opinion. If not, then we have a problem.

The analysts that follow the company seem to think the divi will be maintained (at least according to the most recent research notes I could get my hands on). But I suppose the management could decide now is a good time to cut the dividend and pay down some of the company's debt mountain.

The continuing downward movement in the share price is very worrying. I thought we would see a floor at 70p... But what do I know?

[2delta] 22/11/2007 16:26

Anyone still holding/shi88ing breeze blocks or has all and sundry left the building fearing the worst ?

Traded this of late, managed to get my average down but still sitting on a loss. Tempted to have a nibble but might be wise to wait for the update next week, appears the knife is still falling.

Without wishing to state the obvious the outlook is paramount and with the clouds on the horizon darkening all does not bode well.

Dunno if the divi will be maintained at current levels but it appears the mkt has it's doubts.

[ba5hir is back] 16/11/2007 16:02

New low today the down trend continues holders would have done far better switching to EKT.

[ba5hir is back] 14/11/2007 12:18

Let the trend be your friend. Sell.

[jhan66] 13/11/2007 16:53

Value stock Picker, Are those figures current ?

I'm struggling to tie them in with Company statements...
said in May
`but said it is unlikely to meet
second-half growth expectations on current trading trends.'

said in July
`Abacus Group PLC said it will take a full-year
charge of 9.9 mln stg due to the implementation........ '

and with recent Year's profits (£5.26M, £6.03M, £2.6M & £nil)

[simon gordon] 13/11/2007 16:07

Hi VSP,

I am neither long or short on ABU.

As ABU are a highly operationally geared company, any drop in T/O bangs straight to the bottom line.

Market Cap = 52m
Net Debt = 66m

I pre-qualified my 'rights issue' opinion - it is just speculation: but a possibility if Europe goes into recession. Europe is slowing..

The share price is indicating trouble and change - if you know the sector indepth then you can have the conviction to Buy or Sell - I don't, so I'm watching from the sideline. The share price and graph do not lie: they are telling a story!!!

[value stock picker] 13/11/2007 15:54

I have been accumulating on the below fundamentals. '07 Results will be met, and the general opinion is in '08 Europe will see growth albeit perhaps slowing but an outright recession is not on the horizon. IMVHO the current share price is way oversold.

As anyone can see the debt is easily covered, as is the div. What could possibly make ABU V. attractive to an outsider is the cash flow of 16p which could be used to pay down the debt. Talk by Simon Gordon of a possible rights issue is pure hogwash and no doubt his agenda is to influence weak holders to sell, depressing the share price further so he can either close his short/ buy lower.

I therefore wouldn't add too much credence to his rights issue claim.

Of course he is entitled to his opinion as is everyone.



Current forecasts:-.................. 2007......................2008

Pre-tax profit.......................13.07m....................13.5m

Earnings per share (EPS).............12.65p....................13.04p

Price earnings ratio.................5.63...................... 5.46

Cash flow per share.................16.25p.....................16.97p

EBITDA .............................19.08m................... 21.00m

Net assets per share ...............98.72p....................101.74p

Net debt............................66.34m.................... 61.52m

[simon gordon] 13/11/2007 11:00

With the Euro so strong it must be hitting ABU's clients and maybe this is putting more pressure on margins - maybe this is what the price is indicating.

If things turn very rough I suppose ABU would have to do a rights issue to reduce the big pile of debt.

I can't see what is going act to as a catalyst to move the share up.

Is the dividend going to be cut or axed?

One only for the brave!!!

[ba5hir is back] 13/11/2007 10:36

Grim. Avoid.

[value stock picker] 07/11/2007 17:16

Considering all around today are red it's more than held its own.

[value stock picker] 07/11/2007 17:12

"Ba5hir is back - 7 Nov'07 - 15:59 - 440 of 440

Not looking good at all."

What's not? Your short? Your reflection in the mirror? Your relationship with your boyfriend?

[ba5hir is back] 07/11/2007 15:59

Not looking good at all.

[jimi2] 07/11/2007 08:40

The trading statement said they were in line with (reduced) expectations. Results are out on 27/11 and I think the outlook statement there will be key. As long as trading has not deteriorated further then this looks v cheap on fundamentals. The debt is obviously a concern but hopefully this will now start to reduce as I think they suggested in the last results.

Personally I would be concerned about a bid as I think it would be at a ridiculously low level. If trading improves, and sooner or later it will, then abu can turn on a sixpence. Patience is key here I think though mine is being sorely tried.

[value stock picker] 06/11/2007 23:10

Could predators be sniffing around at these levels, what will ACAL do with it's £38m cash pile, would ABU make a good fit, strip out cost overlaps?

Anyone care to offer an opinion?

[value stock picker] 06/11/2007 17:57

Bought a small tranche today. In and out of this recently, @79 and @94 the other wk. Looking worth another flutter tomorrow, fwd p/e 6, div c.10%. Buy low sell high is the old adage. Could it go lower ? Who buys the bottom, looks great value, will perhaps lock some away again tomorrow for eventual rise when it comes. Alot of negativity around in the general mkt, my guess is now is maybe the time to buy.

ABU is carrying some debt but looks easily servicable but hey i can't tell the future and life is all a risk. Not quite blood on the streets yet but not far off is my guess.

Good luck all holders.

[jimi2] 06/11/2007 16:29

Anyone know of any reason why Abacus getting hammered again? I thought the recent trading statement might improve things but apparently not..