4imprint Share Discussion Threads

[interceptor2] 30/6/2011 14:26

Agree cfro, my first price target is 390p, so I think we are looking at FOUR the same way.

ic2...

[cfro] 30/6/2011 12:46

Way too conservative that Peel Hunt target price imo.

A PE of 10 - 11 would put the share price on £3.50 to £ 3.85....providing newsflow remains strong.

[interceptor2] 30/6/2011 10:09

Thanks Calahan
I know Peel Hunt had a 300p target price earlier in the year, so at 330p it's moving in the right direction. I'm assumming forecast have remained unchanged until the next trading update which is due soon.

I agree that a PER of 7.8 and yield of 5.3% is attractive.

ic2...

[calahan] 30/6/2011 09:22

New broker note from Peel Hunt out today. Forecasting a 22% rise from here (270p) with a TP of 330p. (Edit - This was also their target price on 28.04.2011). Two snippets from the front page.


"Profiting from the promotional goods market, 4imprint is the leading US direct marketing promotional goods distributor. The US market has historically grown ahead of GDP and within this the direct marketing channel is taking market share. 4imprint is the leader in this channel. The company also enjoys a leading position in the European corporate programme market. All this is being delivered with modest capex and working capital needs. The company is well financed, and the valuation (headline PER of 7.8x and 5.3% yield) is attractive. Buy."


"Valuation: For a well financed company offering good revenue growth and a robust dividend, 4imprint is in our view modestly valued, even allowing for the legacy pension deficit. Our top-down valuation, supported by a sum-of-the-parts calculation, leads us to our target price of 330p, 22% above the current level. We have a Buy recommendation."

[redips2] 29/6/2011 09:30

Yes--v nice.

[farnesbarnes] 29/6/2011 07:50

L&G upped their holding 17th June by 1.4m shares. Nice.

[battlebus2] 27/6/2011 18:24

Certainly still a buy imv.

[cfro] 27/6/2011 18:22

Come back in here today. It will probably only be a trade for me tho as this move to SETS is not a good idea as others have pointed out also. Also i've never been extremely bullish about FOUR's prospects as its business of selling promotional merchandise seems a fickle business to me.

Nevertheless, i do think that FOUR is very undervalued at this price. A PE of 10 would put the shares on a share price of £3.50. And as interceptor2 points out, a trading update is due which imo can only be positive news.

[interceptor2] 27/6/2011 13:54

Agree with sentiments from chrisb1103 post 1144.

The last AGM statement confirmed that are still trading strongly, and that they are tackling the smaller SPS issues head on. With strengthened management who are to focus on selling and marketing initiatives. Then for the Chairman and FD to purchase shares at 261p and 265p after the full year results shows the confidence they feel towards future prospects.

June trading statements have been on the 28th, 16th and 26th for the last 3 years. So we should see an update very soon, maybe tomorrow?

ic2...

[napoleon 14th] 25/6/2011 13:54

Still holding that uptrend from Oct '10.
Cheap on fundies & good yield.
IMO that uptrend will hold, & a good statement will see them make up for lost time.

[chrisb1103] 23/6/2011 08:44

Sure totally see that EM, the swings here are very unsettling, but i know you'll still be keeping an eye on this one :)

200K of buys going through this morning, feel pressure is building here - hopefully for an explosion upwards!

[epsilon mojo] 23/6/2011 01:33

Good post chrisb1103 & totally agree depite selling - as you say, one "ahead of" statement & these will fly imo.

For me, though, it was the complete absence of anything approaching this, despite the good numbers, that was the main reason for me eventually selling. The lack of liquidity & eratic price action just made it unavoidable, especially when there appeared (imo) to be many other good value, less volatile & more liquid mid/large cap shares where £40k could be invested in the current climate.

All the best & gla.

[chrisb1103] 22/6/2011 23:33

Still feeling bullish about FOUR here - reckon we should get a trading update any time around now as in previous years and i reckon there's every reason to suggest it could be good...

They noted in the finals in March that "the momentum developed in the past year is evident in the early weeks of 2011" (and they had a cracking recovery year in 2010, profits/EPS up over 90%). The April IMS confirmed that: "Group revenue for the first quarter at GBP45.46m was 11% ahead of prior year". A strong result with Q1 traditionally their weakest quarter so i reckon the chairman and FD were feeling confident when they bought in March at 261 and 265 - the Chairman doubling his holding in fact.

With all these recent positive indicators i can't fathom why these are still trading on a fwd P/E for this year of 7.5 which surely looks way too cheap? If trading has remained anything like as good through Q2 the current broker forecast EPS growth of 6% looks surely very low - i'm thinking it could quite easily be smashed in fact. They're also a solid divi payer and at this price there's a great yield of 5.5% for the ISA whilst the market catches up.

So recent trading is volatile, SETS clearly a bit wild for an illiquid stock like FOUR - but i'm taking the pick up in volume as a sign a breakout could be on the cards (i think we all know one is brewing here), the strong intraday reversal today also very positive. Six months into their trading year now so they should have a good view of the year end turn out so all it needs now is a cracking "ahead" IMS.... and if they're not so bold to say it now they could be at the half year results at beginning of August. We also have to get well into the 300s here before this even hits a double digit P/E on current forecasts! Anyway, sorry to ramble on, just my thoughts... I may have it all wrong of course, but I've added a load more today on that big drop.... come on FOUR, GLA

[ukinvestor220] 22/6/2011 12:22

235 - but surprised if it goes that low

[yandc1] 22/6/2011 11:14

Maybe more big buyers is coming? It looks like good time to buy, support around 335.

[kimball808] 22/6/2011 10:25

Bit of an odd response to an Institution increasing their holding...

[valediction] 21/6/2011 18:40

Finshed 265p today, hard to tell on that chart though.

[battlebus2] 21/6/2011 18:19

Paul this must be some bonus lol.

[paul_butcher1999] 21/6/2011 16:59

No point worrying about the price day to day - its high yielding and rapidly growing - price will catch up sooner or later. I just hope price stays low for a few more weeks so i can use some of my bonus (finger crossed that Carclo does not spike up too!).

[redips2] 21/6/2011 16:08

Well said napo---I'm staying too.

[napoleon 14th] 21/6/2011 14:22

SETS stocks need a strong stomach for all the waves along the way.

Good shares will always end up anyway, so I'm staying in these.

[battlebus2] 20/6/2011 18:38

Good luck E MOJO better to go on ones instincts i find.

[valediction] 20/6/2011 18:13

Goodbye EM and thanks for all the fish

[epsilon mojo] 20/6/2011 12:02

Had enough & sold at 257p - that bizarre fall Friday was the last straw, too much for my heart to take & couldn't resist the price over at BOY.

Good luck all, still expect these to do well eventually.