3dm Worldwide Share Discussion Threads

[tom howard] 17/8/2007 15:24

Thanks gemstar, must be my mistake.

[gemstar2] 17/8/2007 15:01

Howard, you are badly in error muddling up the 2 goatherds

Our goatherd sold all his TDM shares 2 months later

The goatherd you quote states that he is a long term investor

[the sixpenny knight] 17/8/2007 12:58

Personally I'd rather sell something to myself than buy anything from Giltspur; he still thinks Grimsby is part of Cleveland, and that I am part of Grimsby.

As far as TDM is concerned, I still believe the process will succeed - but the cost of that success may not be worth the investment.

Meanwhile, I'm off for a walk...

[tkon] 17/8/2007 12:05

"The loos were the cleanest I have ever seen in any factory – always a sign of good management!"


Crucial.

[potem] 17/8/2007 11:52

Eastod : And your source is? With the history here even mildly positive statements need to be based on easily ascertainable facts, let alone a ramp.

[charles clore] 17/8/2007 11:42

It seems some on this thread are in the privileged position of knowing what is likely to happen next. Lets wish ourselves and others the very best of fortune.

[eastod] 17/8/2007 10:58

Giltspur, you don't invest at all. You short. Good luck from here though, you'll need it ;-)

[giltspur] 17/8/2007 10:57

TOM HOWARD

Excellent.

[giltspur] 17/8/2007 10:39

Potem

I agree and the risk now is as it should be. A small outfit with an idea but this time they have it to prove first, which is how it should be.

Whether it offers a punter profit or not i wouldn't like to guess but sentiment is a fickle mistress and a decent sized order would send it north I suppose. You pays your money.

Seperating gambling from business I wouldn't invest in it with Brookes involved.

His business project, as far as I'm concerned, has failed. I do not invest in failures.

[tom howard] 17/8/2007 10:37

goatherd - 3 May'05 - 12:09 - 11185 of 18242

This is a report on my visit to the TDM facility in Wales on Wednesday. I signed a confidentiality agreement, and so am picking my words with care. If I get it wrong I hope some of you will visit me in prison! The visit was really technically orientated – very little financial content – although it was clear that all ten shareholders there thought that the prelims did not do the company justice.

Some people say TDM is paranoid. As far as the technical and IP side is concerned this is with good reason. Let me give you an analogy. Suppose you invent a wonderful new way of cooking eggs – "frying" – this you patent. So then you start developing the idea. One day you are experimenting with adding fried bacon to the fried eggs. A visitor to your kitchen sees this, and decides to patent it for his own benefit. At the very best this will be an expensive time waster, at worst you may have to pay license fees in order to be able to sell fried bacon with fried eggs – license fees for what was in fact your idea. This is, of course, similar to what happened between BPRG and SEO.

TDM have excellent patent protection on the basic PIM process, but as they develop the process they make new innovative and patentable discoveries. It is extremely important to them [and us] that no one else patents these discoveries and thus hold TDM to ransom.

This probably explains the limited number of shareholders that have been shown round. The company [or its brokers] need to be aware of the identity of people being shown round so that they can be sure the confidentiality agreements will be honoured. Many execution only internet broker clients are, of course, barely known to anyone.

The building is well suited to house the alpha and beta, though I do not think it would house two alphas. The power supply is at present inadequate and is being augmented by a large generator. This appears to be down to the local power supplier whose responses are very slow. I thought that was purely a characteristic of Eastern Electricity – but apparently not! The power requirement is very substantial, even though the ovens are gas fired. The loos were the cleanest I have ever seen in any factory – always a sign of good management! Only filthy skylights [external] revealed that it is a refurbished building.

The alpha dwarfs the beta in all respects. It is an immensely impressive piece of kit. Personally I would not like the task of selling a beta to anyone who has seen the alpha. Constructional standards are all one could wish for; the instrumentation is superb. The 400' long plant is operated by just three staff – working at the end remote from the robots and they do not need to walk along the machine at all – everything can be seen on cctv systems. The plant is designed for 24/7 operation with maintenance operations such as lubrication being fully automatic. It clearly has a minimum ten year life – though I suspect will be run for longer. Unfortunately we did not see it running, but saw a robot filling moulds. The machine operating specification has been made very flexible – for example temperatures can be much higher than would be required for basic ingredients, so that engineering grade plastics can be accommodated if necessary. This, of course, accounts for what some people are describing as a "cost overrun".

The original customer for this machine was contracted to allow TDM 50% of the operating time for the first six months. However there were several problems with the site chosen by the licensee. The site was not in good condition, and was unsuitable in some respects, like the available power supply. Also the licensee was reluctant to allow extended testing on other prospective licensee's problems. [and security would have been an issue in some cases] This changed the game plan; and demand for prototyping and toll manufacturing was such that TDM wanted more than 50% of the capacity anyway. Therefore the plant now belongs to TDM, and has been financed. However in due course there is a licensee who will buy the existing alpha, even in its higher spec development state, for the full cost.

This nicely illustrates that TDM is right at the start of a very high potential operation. Plans are bound to change as circumstances change and licensees can also change their objectives – and can be much more dilatory than we would like. Some are not; they are impatient, but hopefully realise the importance of careful testing and commissioning.

I find the way in which this technology and machine have been designed, developed and built in such a short time to be an enormous credit to the management responsible.

OK. So I believe the technology is wonderful; but will it sell? Last year I made cost and profitability estimates [for fence panels – inherently low value] which indicated a pay-back period to the licensee of under 12 months. My visit enabled me to verify some of my assumptions, and the figures are, if anything, better. When I plug some higher value products in, the pay-back is only a very few months. Once this becomes known to industry the demand, from anyone who has suitable markets, will look after itself. A pay-back of less than six months will excite any manufacturer.

The ability to use waste materials is important in getting these very good pay-backs. However the system does not depend on them, it is should still be very profitable using virgin plastics; which may have to be used in some countries for consumer acceptability reasons. However the PIM process will make, as it is taken up, major inroads to the ever increasing waste disposal problem.

I am sure that TDM will prosper mightily, and its shareholders with it. This is, however, from the viewpoint of a long term investor. What will happen in the trader's timescales is a mystery to me.

Richard Dawson

[potem] 17/8/2007 10:36

Bluebelle : That was before my time, but what you say has to be right. I have put part of the story down to a urban myth for that reason (if there was illegal activity why no actual, as opposed to talked-about, legal action?). Do you have anything concrete you can post a link to as I am genuinely interested in what went on and who exactly was involved and in what.

[potem] 17/8/2007 10:29

Guilty : You`re in danger of becoming reasonable! What you say drove the share price to over 190p, now it is 5.25p (ignoring dilution). For me we are in a different ball-game now. Even if you are right (a lawyer`s caveat, perhaps) just because some people were wrong to invest at 180p does not mean it is never worth a punt.
Views expressed here by the cautious, and elsewhere also, suggest that if they ever get some real production there will be much to be made when the share price hits 30p and the risks will be that much less. They advocated getting in then when the waters are clearer.
At present there is a real risk of going bust, but a good return to be made if they don`t. Getting rid of Cornell improves the landscape no end as dilution will end, at least for the time being.
Bovis, Mediwall, government backed groups including Tescos, etc. all point to the possibility of eventual success. (Without mentioning asimco and the more exotic possibilities still not yet pronounced dead)
The apparent behaviour of the management and the web of licencees etc. flag up the risks to the PI even if insolvency is avoided.
You pays your money and you takes your chance. I have told friends not to be so stupid, but have a fistful of these myself. (they are my best performing investment this week!)

[bluebelle] 17/8/2007 10:11

Gilts

This

I recall people signing secret forms and being led blind folded to Wales in the believe that they were privy to something very secret.


was the thing that proved to me, were proof by then needed, that this was indeed all smoke and mirrors as, had the Board been revealing potentially price sensitive information to a small group of shareholders, they would have been acting illegally. The fact that so many of the 3 dimmers - including St Michael - were taken in by such stunts says it all really.

[charles clore] 17/8/2007 10:06

And here endeth the gospel according to St gilty

[eastod] 17/8/2007 09:35

yeah, you reckon?

[eastod] 17/8/2007 09:18

Giltspur

How much have they fallen this month?

[giltspur] 17/8/2007 08:19

Eastod

How much cash have they generated this year?

[burlington bertie] 17/8/2007 00:13

Eastod:

Speaking for myself, I disagree with your statement of "fiddling whilst Rome is burning", I was actually playing Pizzicato.

[db cooper] 16/8/2007 21:06

lol Sixpenny

[the sixpenny knight] 16/8/2007 21:05

DB -

Who said anything about riding? I intend to start a stampede. I'll sneak in while the Arabians are busy wringing their shorts out in the Persian Gulf.