1pm Share Discussion Threads

[interceptor2] 18/6/2013 14:01

GHF, You are correct to point out that I may have been a tad harsh saying that the placing was too large a discount. I have checked this morning at other stocks I hold that have raised funds this year, and they were all between 11% and 13% below the previous days closing price. OPM were in the middle at 12%.

Interestingly all of these stocks presented an opportunity to buy in at or below 5% above the placing price before returning to trending higher. But I am not suggesting that OPM will present me with that opportunity and I may still regret selling, whatever the short term price movement is, I will want to hold then again to share in the exciting future growth prospects.

ic2...

[glasshalfull] 17/6/2013 20:01

Well, excellent trading update as many of us were hoping for given the consistent increase in funding lines throughout the period and following a very strong H1. Very well done to the 1PM team!

The fundraising at 0.15p seems well judged and I'm afraid to say that I think it a little disingenuous to argue that it was priced at a disappointing discount ic2...if you look at the chart it's quite clear that the average shareprice during the last 6 months is probably in the region of 0.12p and the shareprice has only recently spiked, sitting at a touch over 0.16p avg. over the last 2/3 weeks. So I don't think it unreasonable at the 0.15p it was priced at & it appears okay in my eyes.

Today's embarrassing replacement statement clearly demonstrates the need for consolidation & I agree with the many posts indicating the same view.

Now to forecasts.

WHI produced an update this morning that indicates that the share dilution will put the brakes on earnings for 2014.

While today's statement indicates that OPM will exceed PBT of £750k (vs £644k forecasts) they indicate that EPS will be somewhat diluted next year in comparison to existing forecasts...which I think will prove to be a very conservative view. FWIW & think davidosh is closer to the mark at £1.25m for 2014.

Extract,

* For FY2014 we have increased our revenue forecast by 1.6% to £3.5m based on a higher brought forward loan book. Our year end loan book is now forecast at £16.5m (from £16m)

* We increase our FY2014 PBT forecast by 21% to £0.98m. This does not entirely compensate for the dilution from today's share issuance however and our EPS forecast has been reduced to 0.0178p from 0.0191p. However, our loan book growth rate is conservative given the acceleration currently being seen.

---

ic2 - I know where you're coming from and given the placing, coupled with "potential" for EPS dilution you may well have timed it right. I top sliced a few as my holding was disproportionate in size to my portfolio given recent strength. I'm also with the Oak Tree and have retained a majority holding as I reckon there's plenty more upside here.

Kind regards,
GHF

[the oak tree] 17/6/2013 19:37

The good news on any benefit from a consolidation is its best to get in before that i.e. now. Probably not worth that much but every little helps as they say! Who knows it may coincide in getting written up in one of the tipsters?

Davidosh - Its difficult for us on the outside to come up with a forecast but would agree with you £1.25m isn't a bad figure. Sales as I mentioned before seam to be increasing by around 40% at the moment, so a 66% increase in PBT is doable. The share placing will erode eps wise some of that increase ofcourse. Could do with broker forecast updated ASAP.

ic2 - if you get it right good on you. I just find trading very small caps that are growing quickly too difficult. They do spike and fall alot though plus have periods each year when it all goes very quiet.

[cfro] 17/6/2013 16:39

Davidosh, i agree that they do need some sort of consolidation as all these 00000's is very confusing and a decimal point can easily be put in the wrong place.

[interceptor2] 17/6/2013 16:27

For the record I must put my hands up of taking advantage of the strong advance and selling my holding after the open, with a view of buying back on any pullback a little lower if I am lucky. I know I may regret my action because the trading update and outlook is very positive. I just felt the fundraising at 0.15p was a larger discount than needed, and there is fairly large dilution which PIs can't avoid. I know it is rare to include PIs in any placings, but why not have an open offer at 0.15p to raise £3.0m. I would certainly take up my allocation.

But the future does look very exciting here, and I wish holders all the best. I hope to be a holder again soon.

Regards ic2...

[davidosh] 17/6/2013 14:30

My own expectation now is for them to do a minimum of £1.25m pbt this year. They also need to announce a consolidation to be agreed at the Agm in August as it is not just ridiculous having trillions of shares in issue but also confusing for all who come into contact with the company.

[davidosh] 17/6/2013 14:23

I wonder if this and next year next forecasts will be updated by WHI as they are now massively underweight as growth is at 35% currently even without the new money to loan out and efficiencies of scaling up.

[saucepan] 17/6/2013 13:14

On balance, I share the view of the bulls here on today's RNS. The chart also looks very good! Happy to hold.

[cfro] 17/6/2013 08:23

I agree Oak Tree. 30% is quite a lot but if as you say its used productively which clearly it will be, then no problem.

Earnings will now come in somewhere around 0.22p which again is well beaten. I therefore dont think they will have any problems increasing earnings next year even with 30% more shares in issue.

These are operating in the right sector at the exact right time. A sweet spot imo.

[the oak tree] 17/6/2013 08:12

All the 00000000 does make it a little difficult to calc. So worth a double check:

1. They are issuing 30% more equity which is quite alot but growing finance companies do need capital to expand. It you think its going to be used productively and with acceptable risk then no problems IMO.

2. Appears this comes out at eps of some 0.0221p the forecast was 0.015 so well beaten. Indeed they have beaten the FY14 forecast 0.019 already. If we take a PE of 15 then share price should be 0.33p i.e. double todays price.

3. Turnover seams to be running at some 40% above FY13.

Encouraging trading update and in a sector IMO that is ripe for further progress. The banks just aren't at the races in this area.

[cfro] 17/6/2013 08:00

They are going to need fresh funds, so this placing is understandable and only at a 10% discount. Also with Henderson a big fund management co. A big dilution but OPM are growing very fast.

Really good update imo with record levels of business written £7.8M and highest sales of £920,000 for May.

Clearly with todays fund raising there is plenty of new business to mop up.

[solarno lopez] 17/6/2013 07:53

they have placed with a not sure how to describe them ..junk bond specialist...

[skyracer] 17/6/2013 07:52

Am I reading this right? Placing (@ 0.015p) at 10% of current share price (0.15p)!

[solarno lopez] 17/6/2013 07:40

only way they can fund expansion.

[jakleeds] 17/6/2013 07:34

Good statement, but yet another placing.

[cfro] 14/6/2013 13:39

What makes you think that cheshire man!? ;-)

[cheshire man] 14/6/2013 12:12

Trading update on the way perhaps :-)

[abbey8] 12/6/2013 18:51

Final results should be soon ? good time to average .Gla

[the oak tree] 03/6/2013 16:53

Its been quite quiet of late so a trading update would be welcome. Suspect this is one to tuck away for awhile.

[cfro] 03/6/2013 16:08

Excellent, another breakout into new highs.

[cheshire man] 03/6/2013 16:04

A nice move up I see :-)

[grlz] 03/6/2013 13:37

trading statement due in the next 10 days - should be a good one imho

[cfro] 31/5/2013 18:37

Nice little tick-up at the end of play. I have been adding to my holding this week. Reckon we might see a good trading update perhaps next week

[cfro] 20/5/2013 09:20

Blimey, flying this morning. A few investors now taking an interest it seems.