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GOOG Alphabet Inc

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Crash of Self-Driving Tesla First Opening for Regulators --update

02/07/2016 12:30am

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By Mike Spector and Jack Nicas 

Last October, Tesla Motors Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk heralded the arrival of the company's autonomous-driving technology, inviting owners of its electric cars to download software that let the autos operate themselves under certain conditions.

His message to owners on its website: "Your Autopilot has arrived."

Auto-safety regulators, meanwhile, were relatively silent on the technology even though many experts viewed Tesla's program as the most aggressive self-driving system on U.S. roads. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, embroiled in managing a sharp increase in safety recalls, including tens of millions of rupture-prone air bags, lacks authority to approve or disapprove of the advanced technology or meaningfully slow its deployment.

Instead, car-safety regulators were forced to wait until a major mishap before significantly addressing Tesla's Autopilot system. The May 7 fatal crash in Florida that killed 40-year-old Joshua Brown when his Tesla Model S drove under the trailer of an 18-wheel semi truck turning in front of the car offers NHTSA officials their first significant chance to flex regulatory muscle.

Seven weeks later, NHTSA opened an initial investigation that, depending on the findings, could result in a recall of 25,000 Tesla vehicles and pressure to change the software. The probe will rely on a Florida Highway Patrol investigation and other analysis, and could take several more months to complete. Until then, regulators will continue to leave it up to Tesla and the owners of thousands of its sedans and sport-utility vehicles to use Autopilot responsibly.

NHTSA declined to comment on the Tesla investigation.

The gap between Tesla's deployment of Autopilot and meaningful federal oversight lays bare NHTSA's limitations in policing emerging safety technology. U.S. officials are virtually powerless to stop auto makers from adopting such technologies unless they clearly run afoul of existing regulations that address car steering wheels, brakes and seat belts designed for human operators. Unlike the Federal Aviation Administration, which requires exhaustive certifications for most aircraft, auto regulators are often reactive.

"NHTSA has no premarket regulatory authority," David Strickland, a former agency head who now represents auto makers pursuing driverless technologies at law firm Venable LLP, said on Friday. "The only thing the agency can do is make a decision whether the vehicle is noncompliant with the existing federal motor vehicle safety standards."

NHTSA is readying new guidelines for autonomous-vehicle developers, but they're expected to be suggestions rather than rigid rules. The regulator aims to make recommendations for states and other local governments to avoid conflicting patchworks of rules in the U.S.

To protect drivers, Tesla offered disclosures and a three-step warning system to keep occupants attentive even as the car drove itself. The system received critical acclaim, with a Norwegian publication finding Autopilot was far more effective at reliably operating itself compared with Daimler AG's suite of similar technologies on its Mercedes-Benz vehicles. A Daimler spokesman said he wasn't familiar with the findings.

The Tesla system has a downside. By installing check-in features, such as forcing drivers to touch the steering wheel periodically, Tesla acknowledged motorists could be prone to a false sense of security.

Tesla acknowledges the Model S Mr. Brown was in failed to recognize the truck in front of him. The Autopilot -- which employs cameras and other sensors -- treated the trailer much like a sign suspended high above a highway, enabling the car to run directly under an obstruction that sheared off the car's roof.

While many driverless-car advocates have been critical of Mr. Musk's aggressive timetable for introducing Tesla's self-driving technology, they now worry the fatal crash will provoke additional regulatory oversight and slow deployment on U.S. roads of the rapidly advancing technology.

"There will be repercussions" in regulations, said Dean Pomerleau, a Carnegie Mellon University professor who has worked on driverless cars for 25 years and led several NHTSA research programs. "I think NHTSA is going to want Tesla to turn off Autopilot at least until they learn more."

Regulators are preparing to release the guidelines for automated vehicles in July, attempting to balance adoption of promising technologies while ensuring they're safe. Companies developing driverless cars -- including Alphabet Inc.'s Google and Tesla -- have expressed reservations about the regulatory oversight, contending it could delay widespread deployment. But they support general guidelines that aim to avoid conflicting rules when cars drive themselves across state lines.

Even before Thursday's disclosure, people working on driverless cars worried that Tesla's Autopilot was an accident waiting to happen. "Anyone who has worked in this area realized that this was inevitable," said Mr. Pomerleau, who said he sold his Tesla stock when Autopilot was announced.

Tesla contends its system is safer than conventional automobiles, noting the crash was the first fatality in over 130 million miles driven with Autopilot and that the feature "results in a statistically significant improvement in safety when compared to purely manual driving."

Tesla tweaked the system earlier this year after drivers posted YouTube videos of themselves engaging in dangerous behaviors such as a reading a newspaper while the Autopilot was engaged. It stepped up its communication to drivers as well, underscoring the dangers of zoning out while at the wheel.

"You can tell drivers to be alert at all times, but can you presume that everyone who read the disclosure will do just that?" Mr. Strickland said. He now advises a coalition of companies working on fully autonomous self-driving cars, including Alphabet, Ford Motor Co. and Uber Technologies Inc.

Some of those companies are far more cautious in their approach. Alphabet has been testing autonomous technology for several years, for instance, and consistently said it believes driverless cars must be fully autonomous to meet its safety standards. The company says semi-autonomous systems that require drivers to sometimes take control of the car can be unsafe because drivers put too much trust in the machine and can't retake control if needed.

Alphabet has asked NHTSA to weigh in on whether its cars can omit steering wheels, and it is testing a prototype without pedals. That vehicle has only a large green "Go" button and a red "Stop" button. That sort of fully autonomous car is harder to design and perfect, "but it's the right thing to do," Alphabet research-lab chief Astro Teller said in a speech last year.

Alphabet and Tesla share this concern: regulatory oversight on par with the FAA's command of airplanes will slow widespread deployment of features designed to heighten vehicle safety. In an auto industry prone to waiting until NHTSA forces auto makers to add safety gear, such as traction control, Silicon Valley has been particularly outspoken in the need to let companies lead the way.

Karl Brauer, a senior analyst at data provider Kelley Blue Book, said any path that waits until cars no longer need driver intervention is going to be a long one. "Ultimately we may be better off with cars without controls, but that future is pretty far off," he said. Whereas Tesla is leveraging real customers to improve its technology, Alphabet pays hundreds of people to test drive its autonomous vehicles.

Brad Templeton, a former Alphabet driverless-car engineer who now consults companies on the technology, said there is an argument that Tesla's approach is for the greater good.

Driverless cars "are going to save lots of lives," he said. "And letting customers test vehicles could advance the technology faster."

Write to Mike Spector at mike.spector@wsj.com and Jack Nicas at jack.nicas@wsj.com

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 01, 2016 19:15 ET (23:15 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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