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OBS Orbis

0.56
0.00 (0.00%)
Last Updated: 01:00:00
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Orbis LSE:OBS London Ordinary Share GB0033271601 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 0.56 0.00 01:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
  -
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
- O 0 0.56 GBX

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Orbis (OBS) Discussions and Chat

Orbis Forums and Chat

Date Time Title Posts
26/10/200823:24JUMP ON-BOARD OR MISS THE TRAIN800
11/2/200821:42Orbis with Charts & News96
20/2/200610:28ORBIS - GOLDMINE76
14/11/200520:15Orbis is going into Orbit????2
01/5/200522:48ORBIS ABOUT TO GO INTO ORBIT32

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Orbis (OBS) Top Chat Posts

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Posted at 07/1/2008 15:20 by sharw
In theory the company's listing will be suspended on 17/3 but I suspect it will be sorted before then with little value, if any, for ordinary shareholders.

You have to remember that the banks are in control of this followed by management. The banks would have pulled the plug in July 2003 but for the fact that the company had net tangible assets of minus £46m. Ordinary shareholders were stiched up at the time - vote for the new arrangements or the company will go into admin. and you will have nothing.

You also have to remember that:

1) if there is an offer for the company the banks can convert their preference shares and existing shareholders will be left with 9.9% of the enlarged equity.

2) Management will be rewarded on a sale of the company. The latest figure we have for net debt is £59.2m at 31/3/07. The enterprise value of the company is this plus market value of shares - currently about £0.1m. If the company were sold for EV £59.3m management would receive £1.704m (£320k less in the event of a MBO).

With these two huge vested interests it is no wonder that both non-execs., with their duty to ordinary shareholders, have found themselves in an impossible position and resigned.

The only reason I did not get out of this one years ago is that, following an earlier spectacular crash in share price, my holding is worth less than the cost of dealing.
Posted at 21/9/2007 14:59 by dangerous brian
Evo are the sellers and the reason the offer price has dropped so much today.

They are 2.25p and the next offer is 3p, does not mean the price will bounce.
Posted at 20/9/2007 17:09 by dangerous brian
Yoda.

I can fully understand why somebody wants to buy this company.

If it was not for the debt and the large repayments of interest
this company would be profitable and have strong cash flow, the
cash flow is the one point that has kept Obs going all these years
under the weight of the debt.

I'm just guessing here but i reckon if the buyer pays 50 million for
it he gets a business that could make 4 million+ a year + the cash flow,
that would be a good deal.

Still dont think they will want to give anything extra to the shareholders,
when do they ever do that, at best maybe 4-5p but i think current price
or less.

All imho
Posted at 20/9/2007 16:51 by etome
Whatever the outcome of talks, it would eventually require to go through shareholder consent. What is your ideal price then? 0p?
Posted at 20/9/2007 16:02 by frederico3
Buys coming through nicely now..Tomorrow we shall see the real price movement...10-20p easily..Keep watching Brain
Posted at 20/9/2007 15:30 by frederico3
Orbis Stmnt re Share Price Movement


RNS Number:2139E
Orbis PLC
20 September 2007

Orbis plc
20 September 2007


Orbis plc ('Orbis' and the 'Company')

Statement re: Share price movement

The Board of Orbis plc notes the recent share price movement and announces that
the Company is in discussions which may or may not lead to an offer for the
entire issued and to be issued share capital of the Company. There is no
certainty at this stage that these discussions will result in an offer for the
Company or that any such offer will result in value to the ordinary
shareholders.
Posted at 20/9/2007 13:21 by frederico3
Im well aware of what OBS has and has not.. Ive been lurking in these for months.. only a matter of time Brain Dead that these returned to double figures.J
Posted at 30/6/2007 18:10 by aleman
Operating cashflow was around £3.2m if you adjust for stock and creditor movements. It has been surprisingly stable in the past. I'll guess you can add back £200k for industrial action in France. Development costs for new contracts will have depressed cashflow in H2 but will add in the coming year. That is hard to guess but I think it is quite possible cashflow in the year ahead will hit between £7m and £8m. In fact this looks quite likely. At 8 times cashflow the ungeared company is worth £60m if we call it £7.5m.

Pref holders get 90.1% until they get their £15m back. This occurs at £16.65m after which they only get 1/3rd. A £60m purchase today assuming the £38m debt (after cash and prefs) would leave £22m so shareholders only get 2/3rd of (£22m - £16.65m) = £3.57m + the original £1.65m (9.9% of the £16.65m threshold)makes a total of £5.22m. The management entitlement of 6.4% of (£22m + £15m +£38m) = £4.8m leaves £0.44m to share between ordinary shareholders. I have ignored current liabilities of £5m (I offset the cash against long debt) but any increase in the offer price of a bid would soon knock this out. Basically shareholders come into the money when the possibly buy price hits £65m and this is reducing by the month. At 8 times cashflow, that would require operating cashflow of £8.125m.

It is conceivable that the company might look like making £9m in another year's time from £7.5m this year, and shareholders would get two thirds of the extra £7m purchase price over our breakeven. £4.67m is 11 times the current share price and I think shareholders should be prepared to vote down any deal that does not reflect this. I think the shares are undervalued and are effectively a good value option. My gut feeling is the shares should be 2 or 3 times the current price but are weighed down by disillusioned long term holders selling out in a trickle with no new buying interest.

I admit this is fairly optimisitic, but the upside is tremendous even if the shareholders are given a smaller stake in future and the shares represent a very risky option, but one that is underpriced. Everybody can win if negotiations are sensible.
Posted at 28/3/2007 10:39 by aleman
I'm really interested in this one so would be obliged if an old hand would consider the assumptions I am making when looking at the company's prospects to see if they are correct. The underlying business seems unexciting but sound and may even have some growth to come after recent contract wins. Operating cashflow looks to be around £7m for the year ahead. If an outsider were to buy the stripped out business in the next year, they might pay 8 x cashflow which would be around £56m. If this happened the banks preference shares would convert so that existing shareholder would get 10%. The £15m converted prefs would come off the company long term debt leaving £39m. Short term debt would be pretty much covered by existing cash plus any generated in the months ahead. Shareholders would then have £17m to share between them, so current shareholders would get £1.7m - equivalent to 4 times the existing share price. The shares seem like an option based on the premium over long term debt, distorted by the politics of negotiation between interested parties in the year ahead. Whilst there could be winners and losers, it strikes me the best result would be to make everyone happy. The banks would like to have their money back and serviceable loans in future. They won't really want the equity I would have thought. The management will want to have a large stake in a cash generative business. It is conceivable they will just roll the loan over another 5 years and allow the banks to convert with a view to selling when appropriate. I think such a cash generative business could pay the £39m down in that time if it grew just a little. The underlying business would then be worth perhaps £60m, i.e. £6 to existing shareholders - 20 times its current value - and the banks' 90% would be £54m with their loans paid back, which would be 3.6 times the current prefs value. To me logic says the recapitalisation should be to balance interests out by making the prefs convertible at any time into 97% of the shares to give the banks £58.2m in 5 years and existing shareholders about £1.8m. This gives both a roughly 4 x return of about 30% per year and allows the banks to convert and sell early if they want. Perhaps tilting the balance a little to shareholders would motivate managment better and create good relations. Either a takeover or rolling over the debt suggests the shares are probably a decent investment at this price. The problem is if either side gets too greedy and can't reach a reasonable consensus. It suggests to me the shares are worth a small punt. They could do quite well from here although they are unlikely to be a 10-bagger anytime soon, and you could lose it all if relations turn sour. Am I making any wrong assumptions, please?
Posted at 01/11/2004 09:43 by day_dreamer
There should be a warning attached to all of your posts Stephen,
i really hope there's nobody out there that believes anything you
say, for now you are getting lucky but your going to push it too
far and find yourself holding a stock for a quick trade that suddenly
pulls the plug and gets suspended and then you will have nothing.

OBS share price is not dropping like a stone for no reason, they are upto
the hilt with debt and time is running out.

Another bull trap by the mm's methinks !

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