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CRG Corin Grp

70.00
0.00 (0.00%)
19 Apr 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Corin Grp LSE:CRG London Ordinary Share GB0031526527 ORD 2.5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 70.00 0.00 01:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
  -
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
- O 0 70.00 GBX

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Posted at 26/12/2012 14:39 by rs2ooo
Didn't post on this thread as I had nothing to say since it's inception. My original entry is detailed in this post from the old thread:

============================================================

RS2OOO - 25 Mar 2011 - 20:27:23 - 264 of 270
I'm a chartist so to speak.

Had a buy signal on this in November 2010 based on my own system rules. I then purchased at 49.25p. This was a risky purchase as a wide stop was required (34p).

Difficult to confidently define S/R on the daily chart. However, a weekly close above 58.8p would give me confidence in continuation of the "breakout". I don't define the current price action as a technical breakout as such, but from a volume perspective it can be classified as such.

Ideal price targets range from 84p - 114p.

A weekly close below 58p next week would have me slightly concerned that we wont see follow through in the short term.

=================================================================

Price never achieved my target and did go lower than levels I felt comfortable with, but nonetheless the final outcome is satisfactory for me.

Thank you Wan for the thread, I enjoyed reading it and wish you the best with you're next investment.
Posted at 24/12/2012 08:33 by investoree
Wan I wish you and all those who read and have contributed to your extremely well researched CRG thread a very happy Christmas and a healthy and prosperous New Year. I look forward to your thoughts on a suitable replacement for these funds when they are eventually released in presumably about a fortnights time? I started trying to follow up on the patent link you provided but then decided it would probably only upset me as I no longer have any interest in CRG.
Posted at 28/11/2012 16:37 by investoree
Thanks Wan I am with TD Direct (TD Waterhouse) and will accept the offer tomorrow which is within their deadline unless any last minute bid appears and then ponder on a new home for the funds when they are released. I think we are probably in for a few difficult months even allowing for a possible 'Santa Rally' so there probably isn't any great rush to commit on a whim. Your research and reasoning has been greatly appreciated on the CRG thread and it will be with great sadness that my CRG shareholding will probably be relinquished very shortly. Kind regards IE.
Posted at 26/11/2012 12:12 by flyfisher
Wan , analyst comment from the time of the bid approach.

We highlighted in our note of 26th September why it was time to take a closer look at Corin,with the company coming to the end of a lengthy period of restructuring and the new Hips and Knees range poised to deliver sustained top line growth and margin expansion from the current depressed levels. In our view, Corin is poised to deliver a re-rating over the next 2-3 years. For example, if the shares were to trade at 7.5x EV/EBITDA on our FY14 estimates, the implied share price would be 140p. As such, we view the mooted 70p offer (which we take as our new Target Price) as opportunistic. The announcement may flush out any competing interest and we believe shareholders should sit tight and await developments.

An offer at 70p would value the equity of Corin at £30m and an EV of £35m. On our forecasts, this would imply Dec-13 multiples of 15.4x P/E and 10.0x EV/EBITA but only 4.8x EV/EBITDA, 0.7x EV/Sales and a Price to Book ratio of just 1.0x. We note other transactions in the Orthopaedics space are frequently done at 2.5x EV/Sales and often considerably more.
Posted at 14/11/2012 10:28 by investoree
Wan myself and other long suffering long term private investors in CRG have clearly been stitched up like kippers by the management and institutions alike in another cosy back room deal. Unless there is some sort of counter offer the best I can do is cause 2IL some minor inconvenience by not selling my shares to them in order to force them to make an application to the High Court when they have received acceptances in excess of 90% of the issued share capital - unless anyone else can suggest another alternative course of action?
Posted at 09/11/2012 09:03 by investoree
Thanks Wan I have just E-mailed the company and attach a copy "As a long term shareholder who has seen the value of their investment plummet over the years. I have retained my faith in the company and its products and averaged down by buying additional shares. I can't believe that the company are even considering a bid at a price anywhere the muted 70p which will reward my investment in the company with a capital loss. Whilst realising that your hands are tied in respect of releasing any information that could be deemed price sensitive I would urge the company to release an RNS as early as possible to update shareholders and not sell us out for reasons of the Directors self interest". I will copy any response that I receive onto your excellent thread.
Posted at 09/11/2012 07:27 by wan
Given the proposed offer is indicated at 70p and this represents a mere 8% premium to NAV, we have to ask ourselves what do private equity see that the market has failed to recognise? In short, eventually bringing the company back to the market, or a trade sale at a multiple of what they paid!

Corin is part way through implementing a growth strategy that takes them into large markets where they were previously either not represented, or not well represented. We are at the thin end of a very large wedge in terms of product introductions, innovation and market share increases. The multiple, referred to above (that private equity is interested in generating/receiving), could also be available for the patient investor. I appreciate that there is value in receiving money today (and not tomorrow), but the indicated price, which is also premium to the recent prevailing price, is poultry compensation for loss of what appears to be an excellent investment opportunity that has only just started gaining momentum and one that has much further to run.

I contacted Corin recently, but they were unable to comment in terms of their position as to the value of the offer. They did confirm that there will indeed be an IMS this month though, whether that will include something with regard to the managements position remains to be seen, but surely we are due some more specific commentary?
Posted at 07/11/2012 07:30 by wan
I expected to see additional commentary from the management, but I guess last nights RNS was rushed out due to the share price movement, so is it possible we may get a further update that indicates their position on the offer price?
Posted at 02/9/2012 07:36 by wan
David Schwartz, who I have met, has a different investing style to me. He has written a not exactly flattering article on Corin. Whilst I concur with his thoughts on ISA/AIM, I cannot say the same about his commentary on Corin –

Contradictory Aims and wobbly knees
By David Schwartz



Wobbly Analysis

Dealing with each point in turn;

DS "Corin just eliminated its interim dividend."
No, not just, because this was announced in the 2011 FY Results on 8th March 2012. Importantly this was for reasons other than DS is implying. From the 2011 FY Results –

"The Board, having considered the cash requirements of the business needed to support growth, the level of borrowings and the cost of continuing to pay dividends has decided that it is in the Group's best interests not to recommend the payment of a final dividend. The Board will continue to monitor closely its policy in relation to dividends with a view to potentially resuming dividends when the current investment phase is complete."

DS "It also warned investors that first-half revenues were boosted by big orders from a major US customer which will not be repeated in the second half of the year."

This is an incorrect statement! From the First Half Results –

Current trading and outlook
"The sales trends across the Group from the first half are broadly continuing in the second half to date. However, following the high level of stocking orders to MAKO in the second half of 2011 and with no significant orders from MAKO expected in the second half of this year, overall the second half of 2012 will see a lower level of sales reported than in the previous year."


So, anyone paying attention would have realised that the stocking orders to Mako would not be repeated. From the 2011 FY Results –

"Stocking orders from MAKO during the second half contributed strongly to the growth in hip revenues. The initial stocking orders, which included a significant proportion of instruments in addition to implant stocks, were largely completed in 2011 as MAKO upgraded many of its existing robotic installations to include its hip application."

Hence there is very good reason for Corin to quote the 'underlying' growth of the hip portfolio 'excluding' Mako and MoM. In 2011 growth in hips excluding Mako and MoM was 29% and Corin reported that this very strong trend continued in the first half of 2012 with growth of 35% and that the sales trends are broadly continuing in the second half.

I suppose it is also what you describe as a big order then. A bit of arithmetic indicates that the stocking order to Mako in the second half was not exactly huge, with the clue being contained in the different growth rates including and excluding Mako and MoM. From the 2011 Results –

"Stocking orders of hip implants and instruments to Mako Surgical Corp. ("MAKO") contributed substantially to this jump in growth. Underlying constant currency sales growth in hips was a very encouraging 29%, excluding sales to MAKO and sales of MoM hips. MoM sales are now only 5% of Group sales."

Further down, the Results reveal that Sales of the Group's hip products increased by 43% to GBP27.2m (2010: GBP19.0m), an increase of 41% on a constant currency basis. So, if the growth trend continues as indicated, sales in the second half of 2012 might well be lower than the second half of 2011, which was £25.8m, but not hugely lower (the figures indicate Mako sales at circa £1m?).



DS "I worry that City expectations are too optimistic given Corin's warning about second-half revenue slippage."
So, if my assumption and sums are anywhere near right, second half revenues will not be below expectations. Likewise I don't expect, with gross margins of 66%, that profits will miss expectations.



DS "A bigger fear for me is the litigation risk associated with "metal-on-metal" hip devices. These were hot items a few years ago for several major players in the orthopaedic industry. Unfortunately, the product did not work as well as expected. Some patients experienced pain and were forced to endure follow-up operations to replace faulty devices. Litigation risk is a growing threat to all orthopaedic producers."

Of course MoM litigation presents for some uncertainty, but the events driving this appear quite unique to Corins competitors, so I expect Corin to continue to successfully defend against such claims. Unlike DS though, I have looked closer at Corin's clinical data, and I have also been following MoM events, including the full two day FDA meeting in the US, during which Corin were present (see below). Corin have already successfully defended itself against one claim, using very strong clinical evidence and regulatory approvals -

Corin wins Cormet device lawsuit in New York
30 July 2012
The same ruling was given by the Supreme Court for the Riegel v. Medtronic case in 2008 that applied to similar medical devices.
Full story –


From a legal perspective, the above would appear to bode well.

FDA Panel: No Answers to MoM Hip Dilemma
By John Gever, Senior Editor, MedPage Today
Published: June 29, 2012

"Alarmist Press"
But the more urgent question is how to manage the many patients -- estimated at 500,000 to 750,000 in the U.S. -- who have already received such implants. Orthopedic surgeons on the panel said they had been hearing increasingly from worried patients who had read media reports of problems.
John Skinner, an official of the British Hip Society, said that "an alarmist press" in Great Britain had raised broad fears among patients in the country, with many demanding to have their implants removed even though they had no apparent problems.

Graham Mercer of the Australian Orthopedic Association said the situation was similar in his country. He blamed "misinformation out there in the media." Both men urged the committee and the FDA to do what they can to discourage unnecessary revision surgeries.




Full Coverage of the FDA Two Day Meeting (a very long read) –

LIVE BLOG: FDA panel discusses
metal-on-metal hip arthroplasty systems
• June 27, 2012



DS "The share price graph provides another warning signal. The recent rally ran out of steam precisely where prices topped out in the spring of 2011. It looks to me that this price level or "resistance" might be a difficult barrier to penetrate."

Do graphs predict the future? Most investors will look at graphs and everyone will have their own opinion on this, and of course by how much they rely on them as an indicator. The fact is, Corin's shares have responded to Corin's growth strategy, which as evidenced in the recent results is already delivering. However, the best is yet to come!

Finally, suggesting the shares will be "dead money" in the months ahead highlights the difference between David's style and mine i.e. short term and long term. Put another way; holding shares ahead of 2013, when Corin expect product launches to have "a significant financial impact", might not excatly come under the category of dead money. There are a number of new products and product enhancements coming through (some in the second half of 2012), but Corin's new Unity knee-products are expected to have a significant financial impact, because they will address 60 per cent of the global knee market rather than the 10-15 per cent addressed by existing products.

Two different styles and two different interpretations; short term or long term. Everyone to their own.
Posted at 18/11/2011 10:08 by trixter
wan - agreed. The CRG share price hit £6 4 years ago, largely (?) based on the promise of conquering the USA. The agreement with Stryker didn't work out, but it now looks like they are building momentum. Could be very interesting especially if the new knee product comes through as expected. AIMHO, DYOR etc.
Corin share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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