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Guardian Stockbrokers Key Economic News Wednesday 20 July 2016

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The key points from today’s economic news, brought to you by Guardian Stockbrokers.

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IMF cut its global economic growth rate

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) notched down its global growth estimate for this year and next by 0.1 percentage point, with global growth now predicted at 3.1% in 2016 and 3.4% in 2017, as Britain’s surprise vote to leave the European Union (EU) last month weighs on consumer confidence and investor sentiment. However, the IMF’s latest outlook is based on a “benign assumption” that the UK and the EU preserve much of their key trade, finance and economic relationship. Further, the fund expects the UK economy to grow by 1.3% in 2017, 0.9 percentage points lower than its April estimate.

UK CPI advanced as expected in June

On a monthly basis, the consumer price index (CPI) climbed 0.20% in June, in the UK, in line with market expectations. In the prior month, the CPI had registered a similar rise.

UK CPI advanced more than expected in June

On a YoY basis, the CPI in the UK registered a rise of 0.50% in June, more than market expectations for a rise of 0.40%. In the prior month, the CPI had registered a rise of 0.30%.

UK core CPI rose more than expected in June

On a YoY basis, the core CPI registered a rise of 1.40% in June, in the UK, higher than market expectations for a rise of 1.30%. The core CPI had advanced 1.20% in the previous month.

UK output PPI rose as expected in June

In the UK, the non-seasonally adjusted output producer price index (PPI) rose 0.20% on a MoM basis in June, compared to a revised similar rise in the prior month. Market anticipation was for output PPI to climb 0.20%.

UK output PPI fell less than expected in June

In June, the non-seasonally adjusted output PPI slid 0.40% on a YoY basis in the UK, compared to a revised fall of 0.60% in the previous month. Market anticipation was for output PPI to fall 0.50%.

UK PPI core output advanced as expected in June

In June on a MoM basis, the non-seasonally adjusted PPI core output in the UK registered a rise of 0.10%, meeting market expectations. In the previous month, PPI core output had registered a revised similar rise.

UK input PPI rose more than expected in June

In June, on a monthly basis, the non-seasonally adjusted input PPI recorded a rise of 1.80% in the UK, compared to a revised rise of 2.20% in the previous month. Market anticipation was for input PPI to climb 1.10%.

UK PPI core output rose more than expected in June

The non-seasonally adjusted PPI core output in the UK climbed 0.70% on a YoY basis in June, compared to a revised rise of 0.60% in the previous month. Markets were anticipating PPI core output to rise 0.60%.

UK retail price index rose more than expected in June

In June, the retail price index in the UK advanced 1.60% on an annual basis, compared to an advance of 1.40% in the prior month. Market expectation was for the retail price index to rise 1.50%.

UK input PPI fell less than expected in June

The non-seasonally adjusted input PPI in the UK dropped 0.50% in June on an annual basis, compared to a revised fall of 4.40% in the prior month. Market expectation was for input PPI to fall 0.80%.

UK retail price index ex-mort int. payments rose more than expected in June

On an annual basis in June, the retail price index ex-mort int. payments climbed 1.70% in the UK, higher than market expectations for a rise of 1.50%. The retail price index ex-mort int. payments had risen 1.50% in the prior month.

UK retail price index climbed in June

The retail price index recorded a rise of 0.40%, on monthly basis, to a level of 263.10 in the UK, in June, compared to a level of 262.10 in the previous month. Market expectation was for the retail price index to climb to 262.70.

Euro-zone economic sentiment index declined in July

The economic sentiment index dropped to -14.70 in July, in the Euro-zone. The economic sentiment index had recorded a level of 20.20 in the prior month.

Euro-zone construction output fell in May

On a MoM basis, the seasonally adjusted construction output registered a drop of 0.50% in May, in the Euro-zone. In the previous month, construction output had recorded a revised drop of 0.30%.

German economic sentiment index fell in July

Compared to a reading of 19.20 in the prior month the economic sentiment index eased to -6.80 in Germany, in July. Market anticipation was for the economic sentiment index to fall to a level of 9.00.

German current situation index dropped in July

In July, the current situation index recorded a drop to 49.80 in Germany, compared to a level of 54.50 in the prior month. Markets were expecting the current situation index to ease to a level of 51.80.

US Redbook index eased in the last week

On a MoM basis, the seasonally adjusted Redbook index dropped 0.50% in the week ended 15 July 2016, in the US. The Redbook index had recorded a drop of 0.30% in the previous week.

US housing starts climbed in June

Housing starts in the US climbed 4.80%, on monthly basis, to an annual rate of 1189.00 K in June, compared to market expectations of 1166.00 K. In the prior month, housing starts had registered a revised level of 1135.00 K.

US building permits advanced in June

Building permits in the US climbed 1.50%, on MoM basis, to an annual rate of 1153.00 K in June, compared to a revised level of 1136.00 K in the previous month. Market anticipation was for building permits to climb to a level of 1150.00 K.

US Redbook index advanced in the last week

In the US, the Redbook index rose 0.40% on a YoY basis, in the week ended 15 July 2016. The Redbook index had registered a rise of 0.80% in the prior week.

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