By Sam Goldfarb 

Longer-term U.S. government bonds remained stuck in a narrow range Friday as investors awaited further insight into the economy and central bank policies.

In recent trading, the yield on the 10-year note was 1.745%, according to Tradeweb, unchanged from Thursday. Yields rise as bond prices fall.

Bonds strengthened earlier this week following some softer-than-expected U.S. economic data, but have steadied since, with few catalysts to move the market significantly in one direction or the other.

Investors had looked forward to Thursday's European Central Bank meeting. But ECB President Mario Draghi's press conference after the meeting offered little clarity into what the central bank will do once its bond-buying program expires in March, raising the stakes for the central bank's December meeting.

"We're in a no-man's-land," said Scott Buchta, head of fixed-income strategy at Brean Capital.

Investors are fairly confident that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates once this year in December, and are keeping a close eye on inflation and foreign central bank policies when weighing their bets on longer-term U.S. Treasurys, he added.

Worries about less support from major central banks have helped send government bond yields in the developed world higher in October after a big slide during the summer to historic low levels. Yields are still trading lower than the levels they reached at the end of 2015.

Unconventional monetary policies in Japan and Europe, including negative interest rates and large-scale bond buying, have hurt banks' earnings and inflicted pains on pension funds and insurance firms. But policy makers are also wary of making changes that would raise borrowing costs for businesses and individuals while the economic outlook remains murky.

For the second day in a row, investors were more bullish on longer-term bonds than short-term debt, shrinking the yield premium on the 10-year Treasury note relative to the two-year note.

In the bond world, a growing yield premium is known as a steepening yield curve. The opposite move is called a flattening yield curve.

The shape of the curve has long been used by investors, economists and central bank officials as a gauge of growth and inflation outlook. A steepening yield curve reflects expectations that the economic growth may gain momentum and lead to higher inflation while a flattening curve is seen as sending out worrisome signals on the economy.

The 10-year note's yield premium has risen from 0.76 percentage point set in July, the lowest since 2007. But, at around 0.92 percentage point, it is still below 1.215 percentage point set at the end of 2015.

Write to Sam Goldfarb at sam.goldfarb@wsj.com

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 21, 2016 12:28 ET (16:28 GMT)

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