U.S. Government Bonds Stabilize
21 October 2016 - 5:43PM
Dow Jones News
By Sam Goldfarb
Longer-term U.S. government bonds remained stuck in a narrow
range Friday as investors awaited further insight into the economy
and central bank policies.
In recent trading, the yield on the 10-year note was 1.745%,
according to Tradeweb, unchanged from Thursday. Yields rise as bond
prices fall.
Bonds strengthened earlier this week following some
softer-than-expected U.S. economic data, but have steadied since,
with few catalysts to move the market significantly in one
direction or the other.
Investors had looked forward to Thursday's European Central Bank
meeting. But ECB President Mario Draghi's press conference after
the meeting offered little clarity into what the central bank will
do once its bond-buying program expires in March, raising the
stakes for the central bank's December meeting.
"We're in a no-man's-land," said Scott Buchta, head of
fixed-income strategy at Brean Capital.
Investors are fairly confident that the Federal Reserve will
raise interest rates once this year in December, and are keeping a
close eye on inflation and foreign central bank policies when
weighing their bets on longer-term U.S. Treasurys, he added.
Worries about less support from major central banks have helped
send government bond yields in the developed world higher in
October after a big slide during the summer to historic low levels.
Yields are still trading lower than the levels they reached at the
end of 2015.
Unconventional monetary policies in Japan and Europe, including
negative interest rates and large-scale bond buying, have hurt
banks' earnings and inflicted pains on pension funds and insurance
firms. But policy makers are also wary of making changes that would
raise borrowing costs for businesses and individuals while the
economic outlook remains murky.
For the second day in a row, investors were more bullish on
longer-term bonds than short-term debt, shrinking the yield premium
on the 10-year Treasury note relative to the two-year note.
In the bond world, a growing yield premium is known as a
steepening yield curve. The opposite move is called a flattening
yield curve.
The shape of the curve has long been used by investors,
economists and central bank officials as a gauge of growth and
inflation outlook. A steepening yield curve reflects expectations
that the economic growth may gain momentum and lead to higher
inflation while a flattening curve is seen as sending out worrisome
signals on the economy.
The 10-year note's yield premium has risen from 0.76 percentage
point set in July, the lowest since 2007. But, at around 0.92
percentage point, it is still below 1.215 percentage point set at
the end of 2015.
Write to Sam Goldfarb at sam.goldfarb@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 21, 2016 12:28 ET (16:28 GMT)
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