MARKET SNAPSHOT: By This Measure, Stocks Have Weathered The Worst
29 August 2015 - 6:35PM
Dow Jones News
By Sue Chang, MarketWatch
The analyst who in early June projected a 10% correction in the
S&P 500 now believes the worst of the selloff is behind us.
"I think we saw the bottom with roughly 1,900 S&P 500
support, given the way in which Fed policy support has been both
the limit and backstop of stocks for years, and China has not been
devaluing since midweek," said Barry Bannister, chief equity
strategist at Stifel U.S. Equity Research.
He pointed out that since the onset of the bull market in March
2009, the S&P 500 has tracked Federal Reserve assets (See
chart).
"By comparing the weekly S&P 500 price to the Fed's weekly
asset holdings, we see a tight plus or minus 2 standard deviations
range, which points to 1,900 downside and 2,200 upside for the
S&P 500 so long as Fed assets remain flat at around $4.50
trillion."
All three stock indexes closed higher
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-set-to-fall-as-volatile-week-leaves-investors-wary-2015-08-28)
at the end of a week that included a 1,000-point plunge in the Dow
Jones Industrial Average on Monday. The Dow posted a 1.1% weekly
gain to 16,642.94 while the S&P 500 added 0.9% during the week
to 1,988.85 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.6% to 4,828.32.
Still, even as the market regains its footing, volatility is
here to stay
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-use-to-it-volatility-is-here-to-stay-after-china-2015-08-25).
"I think investors would be wise to prepare for more volatility.
Volatility tends to be cyclical and it definitely appears to be
ramping up after a really benign period over the last couple of
years," said Jim Sinegal, an analyst at Morningstar.
The CBOE Volatility Index , also known as the fear gauge, spiked
to a nearly four-year high last week as the stock market recoiled
from uncertainties in China.
"The current market selloff and spike in volatility is largely
attributed to developments in China and uncertainty about the
impact of expected Fed hikes," analyst Marko Kolanovic at J.P.
Morgan said in a report.
The Fed is watching developments in the China closely
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-watching-china-closely-fischer-says-2015-08-29)
to gauge its potential effect on the U.S. economy, Stanley Fischer,
the No. 2 official at the U.S. central bank, said on Saturday.
Kolanovic identified technical investors -- people who do not
trade on fundamentals but are strategy-focused -- as the culprits
behind the 1,000-point flash crash and expects them to continue
selling in the next few weeks.
"We estimate that the combined selling of volatility target
strategies, trend following strategies and risk parity portfolios
could be $150 billion to $300 billion over the next several weeks,"
he said.
Nonetheless, the recent slide in the market should not
discourage investors from hunting for bargains.
"We're now seeing more attractive valuations than we have over
the past couple of years," said Sinegal. "Our consumer analysts
like Yum Brands Inc. (YUM) , which is very big in China. And our
energy analysts are finding a lot of opportunities in companies
suffering from lower oil prices."
As earnings go, there are only a handful of S&P 500
companies on deck.
Date Company (EPS/revenue estimate}
Tues., Sept. 1 Dollar Tree Inc. US:DLTR (68 cents/$2.23 bln)
Tues., Sept. 1 H&R Block Inc. US:HRB (-40 cents/$136 mln)
Thurs., Sept. 3 Campbell Soup Co. US:CPB (42 cents/$1.69 bln)
Thurs., Sept. 3 Joy Global Inc. US:JOY (61 cents/$800 mln)
FactSet
Of greater interest to the market will be the August jobs data
on Friday which will provide additional clues on whether the
Federal Reserve will raise interest rates as early as
September.
"We estimate the U.S. economy generated 180,000 new jobs in
August, which is somewhat below the latest consensus call," said
James Sweeney, chief economist at Credit Suisse.
Economists polled by MarketWatch are expecting the U.S. economy
to have added 223,000 jobs in August.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 29, 2015 13:20 ET (17:20 GMT)
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