Final Polls Before Brazil Presidential Election Give Edge to Rousseff

By Marla Dickerson and Luciana Magalhaes 

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff still holds an edge over challenger Aécio Neves in the final polls before Sunday's election, one of the tightest and most unpredictable in the nation's history.

Ms. Rousseff would garner a projected 49% of the prospective total vote heading into the runoff, compared with 43% for Mr. Neves, according to polling agency Ibope. The gap has narrowed slightly since Thursday, when the polling agency reported an eight-percentage-point spread between the incumbent and the challenger. The poll has a two-percentage-point margin of error.

A separate poll by Datafolha showed a similar trend, with Ms. Rousseff garnering 47% of the vote to 43% for Mr. Neves, down from a six-percentage-point gap two days ago. The Datafolha survey has a margin of error of two percentage points, indicating a statistical tie.

While Ms. Rousseff would seem to hold the edge, some political experts say the race is too close to call.

"The election is open because there is still a latent desire for change, " said Rafael Cortez, political scientist at São Paulo-based consulting firm Tendências Consultoria

The results come just hours before Brazilians head to the polls in one of the country's most hard-fought and polarizing elections ever. The vote takes place amid growing unease about the economy, which is suffering from slow growth, high inflation and slipping competitiveness.

Brazil's low-income and rural voters tend to support Ms. Rousseff, whose Workers' Party, known as the PT, launched welfare programs that have pulled millions from poverty. Many wealthier, urban voters prefer Mr. Neves, who has vowed to tackle inflation and jump-start growth.

Ms. Rousseff and Mr. Neves have attacked each other relentlessly in recent days, including a bruising final debate Friday evening in which the rivals traded barbs about a deepening corruption scandal at state-owned Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's largest company.

Weekly news magazine Veja reported Thursday that Ms. Rousseff and her predecessor, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, knew of a vast bribery scheme in which Petrobras funds allegedly were diverted to secure political favors, charges that Ms. Rousseff and her party have denied.

"There's one measure above all others to end corruption...vote the PT out of office," Mr. Neves said, eliciting both cheers and boos from the debate audience.

Ms. Rousseff shot back that the Veja piece was an 11th-hour attempt to influence the outcome of the election and that she intends to sue the magazine.

"The people know that this information is being manipulated because no evidence has been presented," Ms. Rousseff said. "I will go to court to defend myself."

Veja's offices were vandalized Friday evening and garbage strewed at the entrance.

The Rousseff campaign has gained an advantage over Mr. Neves in recent days by convincing working-class voters that the economic gains they have made in recent years would be threatened by Mr. Neves's free-market policies.

But Mr. Neves, who defied expectations in the first round by coming from behind to win the right to face Ms. Rousseff in a runoff, said Brazil's major polling agencies, Ibope and Datafolha, are underestimating him once more.

A third poll released Saturday by MDA, a lesser-known polling agency, gave Mr. Neves 50.3% of valid votes to 49.7% for Ms. Rousseff.

In a race that has been filled with unexpected twists and turns, experts said anything might be possible.

"Dilma is still the favorite...but it is too early for the PT to celebrate," said Pedro Fassoni Arruda, political scientist and professor at the Pontifical Catholic University of Sao Paulo. "It seems more likely she will be re-elected tomorrow. But we might also have a surprise."

Write to Marla Dickerson at [e-mail] and Luciana Magalhaes at [e-mail]

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