The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) for China
Increased in March
PR Newswire
BEIJING, April 23, 2014
BEIJING, April 23, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board
Leading Economic Index(R) (LEI) for China increased 1.2 percent in
March. The index stands at 285.7 (2004 = 100), following a 0.9
percent increase in February and a 0.3 percent increase in January.
Four of the six components contributed positively to the index in
March.
"The rise in the Leading Economic Index for China accelerated in
March from February," said Andrew Polk, resident economist at The
Conference Board China Center in Beijing. "However, its six-month
growth rate remains moderate, which suggests that the improvement
has not firmed up yet. The environment for real estate investment
is dismal and looks set to continue dragging on economic growth in
Q2. Thus March's sharp rebound of current economic activity is
likely to be temporary."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index(R) (CEI) for
China, which measures current economic activity, increased 1.1
percent in March to 255.6 (2004 = 100), following no change in
February and a 1.3 percent decline in January. Four of the five
components contributed positively to the index in March.
The Conference Board LEI for China aggregates six economic
indicators that measure economic activity in China. Each of the LEI
components has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual
indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to
show underlying trends more clearly.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) (LEI) for
China
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) for China was
launched in May 2010. Plotted back to 1986, this index has
successfully signaled turning points in the economic cycles of
China. The Conference Board also produces LEIs for Australia,
Brazil, the Euro Area, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea,
Mexico, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic
Index(R) (LEI) for China include:
Total Loans Issued by Financial Institutions (source: People's
Bank of China)
5000 Industry Enterprises Diffusion Index: Raw Materials Supply
Index (source: People's Bank of China)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: PMI Supplier Deliveries
(source: National Bureau of Statistics)
Consumer Expectations Index (source: National Bureau of
Statistics)
Total Floor Space Started (source: National Bureau of
Statistics)
NBS Manufacturing PMI Sub-Indices: Export Orders (source:
National Bureau of Statistics)
For more information including full press release and technical
notes:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=11
To view The Conference Board calendar of 2014 indicator
releases:
http://www.conference-board.org/data/
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Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
2014 6-month
Jan Feb Mar Sep to Mar
Leading Economic Index (LEI) 279.8 p282.3 p285.7 p
Percent Change 0.3 p 0.9 p 1.2 p 5.0
Diffusion 58.3 58.3 58.3 66.7
Coincident Economic Index (CEI) 252.8 p252.7 p255.6 p
Percent Change -1.3 p 0.0 p 1.1 p 2.8
Diffusion 40.0 60.0 80.0 80.0
n.a. Not available p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2004
Source: The Conference Board All Rights Reserved
SOURCE The Conference Board
/CONTACT: BEIJING: The Conference Board China Center for
Economics and Business: Claire Xia + 86 10 8532 4688 /
claire.xia@conference-board.org; or NEW YORK: The Conference Board:
Jonathan Liu +1-732-991-1754 / jonathan.liu@conference-board.org or
Carol Courter +1-732-672-2817 / courter@conference-board.org; or
BRUSSELS: The Conference Board: Andrew Tank + 32 2 675 5405 /
andrew.tank@conference-board.org
/Web site: http://www.conference-board.org