Aegis Group Share Discussion Threads

[irenekent] 09/4/2013 19:38

Has anyone received their money yet?

[irenekent] 26/3/2013 07:15

The Chinese have finally at the last minute given consent and the takeover can go through.

Goodbye and good luck.

[mida5] 18/10/2012 20:11

Why has the share price dropped again???

[mida5] 31/8/2012 10:44

Is there any dates out for the t/o yet, apart from the last Q of the year

[mida5] 16/7/2012 17:29

Thanks Sharw, with the markets not knowing where to go it might be as well kept there for an extra 2%

[sharw] 16/7/2012 17:13

It is the time factor - the S of A is currently scheduled to complete in "Q4" which could be anything from Oct. 1st to Dec. 31st. If you know of a nice little trade that will bring you a profit of 2% before then, then it would pay you to sell AGS now and invest there instead.

235.8x1.02 = 240.5

[mida5] 16/7/2012 14:16

Why are we not trading nearer the 2.38/9 level?

Any thoughts

[lucky_punter] 12/7/2012 14:12

Investec (LON:INVP) believes Japanese gorup Dentsu's £3.2 billion bid for Aegis (LON:AGS) looks a "very full price" and that a rival offer is unlikely.

[markie7] 12/7/2012 11:15

well done holders. what a price.

[irenekent] 12/7/2012 09:19

Absolutely no interest from PI's. Been in these for yonks. Glad I didn't sell - it just goes to show that going your own way far from the bulletin board favourites can give a steady income and a healthy capital return.

[zyzzyva] 12/7/2012 07:48

the japs are completely crazy imo. over ambitious. will end in tears

[n3tleylucas] 12/7/2012 07:31

240p cash rec Dentsu t/o offer

[ninja 19] 15/3/2012 07:07

Fantastic results

[ninja 19] 14/3/2012 12:36

I am in for tomorrow. It's going to be a bumper year for them.

[salver2] 24/1/2012 18:30

general motors it is!!!!!!

[salver2] 19/1/2012 23:27

takeover in offing!-or about to announce they have snaffled general motors business or unilevers??

[pugugly] 19/1/2012 14:01

Constant gainer over last 10 days. Any thoughts ?

[sharw] 12/7/2011 11:53

Something odd - not sure what to make of this :

[sharw] 06/6/2011 12:25

Large amount of info just been put up at:


Apologies for length but need to capture while live:

12:09PM
BE
Ok - question on the right about Aegis
Aegis Group PLC (AGS:LSE): Last: 150.40, up 9.2 (+6.52%), High: 152.33, Low: 149.89, Volume: 8.35m
BE
On the news it's looking to flog Synovate
BE
The market research bit
BE
Leaving it a tidier takeover target for Publicis
BE
Or am I getting ahead of myself here?
NH
no
NH
that's the read across
NH
this business goes
NH
and the rest gets gobbled up
BE
Been on the cards, I guess.
BE
Aegis's CEO came from the other side of the business.
BE
And it was always trickier to identify buyers for market research than ad sales.
BE
As is, assuming this deal completes, it'd leave Aegis with a lot of cash and not much to do with it.
NH
yes
BE
Can't really give it back to shareholders, as it's a growth company.
BE
So - a big acquisition, I suppose.
BE
Or a sale.
BE
Anyone done any breakup valuations this morning?
NH
hang on
NH
here's something from Altium
NH
Given that Synovate generates c. 36% of total revenue this would be a radical move for AGS, although it has long been recognised that there is little or no synergy between Synovate and the larger Aegis Media business. Synovate is also lower margin and although a high quality business with attractive medium term prospects is, in our view, the less well understood part of the group, a factor which we believe may have exerted a drag on its overall valuation. A price tag of £500m has been suggested in the press which we estimate would equate to c.0.9x / c.11x current year revenue / underlying operating profit respectively. Press comment suggests that other parties may also be interested with this morning's announcement likely to force their hand.
NH
Whilst there can be no certainty that an agreement will be reached, we believe this morning's news will be taken well. Resultant cash would substantially enhance the group's ability to pursue its strategic goal of internationalising (particularly expanding into emerging markets). However, perhaps more significantly we believe this news will effectively place the group in play as a take out and / or break-up candidate with Groupe Bollore's c.26% stake a potential stepping stone in this process. We reiterate our Buy recommendation and believe the group's stock offers attractive value with or without the presence of bid speculation.
NH
and here's Liberum
NH
Aegis this morning confirmed it is in talks to sell its market research business,
Synovate, to global market research firm Ipsos (NR). We think other potential
bidders could emerge. The announcement of these talks, plus the questions it
raises over Aegis' future, are likely to mean the stock outperforms its agency
peers over the short-term, especially given the recent uncertain economic
newsflow. Reiterate Buy and 165p fair value
NH
Do we think Synovate will be sold (depending, of course, on price)? Yes: Aegis'
CEO, Jerry Buhlmann, is a media man (he was CEO of Aegis Media prebecoming
CEO of Aegis Media) and the two businesses have always sat
awkwardly together as there are few synergies. A sale of Synovate has been
mooted by analysts and, while Aegis has always said Synovate is a core
business, there has always been the feeling that it would make sense to sell.
NH
Could other bidders emerge? Yes: both Ipsos and its German-listed peer GFK
(NR) need to build up scale. GFK previously bid for TNS before it was bought by
WPP and has said it would look at Synovate if it came up for sale. Both should
have the financial capability to do a deal, especially given the favourability of the
GBP-EUR exchange rate.
NH
Is the speculated £500m a good price? Yes: it equates to 11x 2010 EBITA preallocation
of central costs, which is a good price for a business that makes c. 8%
margins. WPP bought TNS back in 2008 for c. 14x 07 EBITA (including TNS'
central costs) but TNS had higher margins at 10.5% (in 07).
NH
Would WPP bid for Synovate? Unlikely: not only are there potential market share
issues but we just do not see Synovate, with its heavy weighting towards custom
research, as a business that WPP feels as though it needs to buy, especially
given it is keen to emphasise its move away from big acquisitions. Strategically, a
deal would not make sense: the integration of TNS has not happened as quickly
as they planned so adding another integration effort on top would be a burden.
And with Market Research already at c. 25% of group revenues and already
acting as a drag on organic revenue growth and margins, we do not see any
reason why WPP would want to increase its exposure to the area.
NH
What would Aegis do with the cash? There are several options: pay down debt;
hand the cash back; or make a big acquisition. They could pay down debt but
they only had £331m of net debt at YE10 and cash interest rates are low so there
would be the risk of dilution. We do not think they will return the cash to
shareholders as, essentially, it sends a signal they cannot find any good
investments and are a sitting target (though see below). Our thoughts are they
look to make a big acquisition, with the focus on digital, where the other major
groups have made major deals and where Aegis is likely to want to strengthen its
offering.
BE
Good note, that one.
NH
apologies that's long
NH
but the best round up I have seen
BE
That's Ian Whittaker
BE
Who's also done a breakup price.
BE
Assuming the £500m disposal price for Synovate is correct, we
estimate that a sale of the remaining part of Aegis (i.e. the media arm) at a mid-point multiple range would
equate to a share price range of 165p, in line with our DCF.
BE
Putting a multiple valuation on the media business is somewhat tricky: there have been few (if any) sizeable
transactions in the space in recent years. However, given (a) media buying and planning is the one business
that benefits definitely from scale (b) it is also the highest margin part of an agency's business overall (at Aegis,
research makes 8% margins, media 18.6%, both pre-central costs) and (c) Aegis has a well-established
position in Western Europe, we see a multiple of 12-14x 2010 EBITA pre-central costs as credible, especially if
the lower margin research business goes for c. 11x EBITA, as speculated.
BE
At these multiples for media – and assuming a £500m valuation for the research business – a mid-point of 13x
EBITA for the media business would mean Aegis would be worth 165p (including an adjustment for deferred
consideration). However, at a 15x multiple for the media business, Aegis could be worth up to c. 190p.
BE
Anyway - that's enough of that.
NH
yes
NH
done that one to death
12:17PM

[sharw] 06/6/2011 11:50

Just found this:

"Analyst Alex DeGroote of Panmure Gordon reiterated the broker's buy recommendation and raised its target price from 175p to 190p".

Source:

and thanks to SpikeyDT at iii for pointing it out.

[sharw] 06/6/2011 11:28

The market has reacted positively. The 5 year closing high was 152p on 15/2/07 - will it beat that today?

PUGUGLY - the only broker target I can find is Panmure Gordon raising target from 160 to 175 on 11/2/11

[pugugly] 06/6/2011 08:33

Anyone seen a brokers price target ?

[sharw] 05/6/2011 16:01

The possibility of Synovate being split off resurfaces:

[nellie1973] 18/3/2011 18:47

Tipped in press today as a buy.