Rit Capital Partners Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 12/4/2024 12:18

Sold my wife's RCP again, not a reflection on prospects so much as being unable to resist a quick profit.

Some of the proceeds on into SUPR, seems a good SIPP stock.

Big loser is ORIT, which I've been unable to pull the trigger on selling, and just can't seem to catch a bid.

[mwj1959] 10/4/2024 18:02

From Citywire...probably behind the modest gain in share price today. I think they are being too pessimistic in saying that FV is a 25 - 30% discount.

Investec analysts, who have been among the most bearish critics of RIT Capital Partners (RCP), have upgraded their rating of the Rothschild-backed multi-asset fund after another weakening in its share price.

With the shares trading 30% below net asset value (NAV) earlier this week, compared with 26% when the £2.5bn listed global fund issued annual results in March, analysts Alan Brierley and Ben Newell replaced their ‘sell’ advice of 13 months ago with a cautious ‘hold’, saying fair value would see the shares trade on a discount of 25% to 30%.

Since the note was published yesterday, RIT shares have edged 0.6% higher to £17.60.

While impressed with the trust’s £184m of share buybacks in the past 15 months, which the analysts believe was a better use of capital than making new investments, they said this had failed to reverse a ‘brutal derating’ in the shares, with the portfolio’s asset value having ‘flatlinedR17; over three years when global equities had rallied 27%.


They remain wary of the trust’s large allocation to private investments, which provoked their first downgrade to ‘hold’ in December 2022. This has fallen from 45% to 36% and is set to decline to 25% to 33% in the next two years, with the company in the process of selling several stakes that might boost NAV.

‘Our central thesis is that [the private book] is vulnerable to a valuation reset following a period when a tsunami of easy money drove valuations of late-stage venture capital to extreme levels in 2020 and 2021,’ the analysts said.

Brierley and Newell welcomed the significant changes made at RIT’s wholly owned fund manager, J Rothschild Capital Management (JRCM), which has been shored up by two appointments from the investment trust’s board.

In January, former Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan fund manager Maggie Fanari moved across to replace Francesco Goedhuis as JRCM’s chief executive, following the appointment of investment banker Maxim Parr last September as its chair.

[essentialinvestor] 05/4/2024 15:33

80%, bloody hell!. More than I thought.

[spectoacc] 05/4/2024 14:10

He would :)

I tried to short LTI at 80% premium (no borrow), again at 100% - at which point, the first attempted short would have been really painful :)

But is LTI a special case? 40% of it is the L-T Ltd business, which once looked much more valuable than NAV, and now looks generous/in decline.

The infrastructure ITs have had an interesting NAV history too - consistent big premia, to the reverse. Can recall HICL at +25% and recently -25%, which plays havoc with P@L.

[essentialinvestor] 05/4/2024 13:51

People paid 6/7% over NAV here at one point, but tbf that was perhaps a combination of ZIRP and RIT's relatively strong previous returns.

LTI sold on a 60% ? approximate Premium to NAV previously,
(Spec you would know the figures).

CLDN, from memory got near a 10% Discount a while back,
but can't remember a premium.

[fabius1] 05/4/2024 12:49

EI - On CLDN, the discount is a useful guide but valuations are subjective. I personally think it is better to focus on the price action. I would wait and see how it manages the 29-31 support. If it breaks through this, the long term channel would probably be the next support at @ say 26-27.

[essentialinvestor] 05/4/2024 12:20

Anyone have a view on the merits of RITb v CLDN, thanks.

[essentialinvestor] 05/4/2024 12:16

They're buying back more aggressively over the last couple of days.

[mushypeas] 05/4/2024 09:19

EI. The AIC no longer publish comparative NAV results, but the NAV perfomance figures can be found one at a time on the individual trust pages, e.g.
hxxps://www.theaic.co.uk/companydata/rit-capital-partners/performance

[chillpill] 05/4/2024 09:05

Hopefully the end of the tax year selling. I’ve trebled my holding this week as it is trading at a 30% discount

Hedge funds that act in this space like Elliot Investment Management are likely to be building stakes quietly right now.

[essentialinvestor] 04/4/2024 13:36

Appreciate the reply FAB, good fortune.

[fabius1] 04/4/2024 13:30

EI - Uncertainty probably sums it up for me. I personally see more downside pressure on equities. Valuations are just too rich for my taste. Bond markets will give us the best view. Not really a shorter when it comes to 'investing', just try to think like one when trying to read the market for opportunities.

[essentialinvestor] 04/4/2024 13:18

FAB, anything thats grabbing your attention in markets atm, you're often on the short side - from memory.

[fabius1] 04/4/2024 12:58

Might be worth pointing out that we have been seeing 'negative/reverse spreads' for the last few weeks and certainly the case when I checked a minute ago. ie the price on the offer is marginally lower than the bid. Make of that what you will.

[kiwi2007] 04/4/2024 11:26

Yes, intraday trades ... let's see if we get support here if not 1600'ish and double up?

Whoever sold yesterday didn't want the divi.

[essentialinvestor] 04/4/2024 11:23

Does anyone have detail on the respective CLDN v RIT NAV returns over the last 5 years, thanks.

CLDN sells on a discount of 35% plus.

Tbf to RIT, I'm 'discounting' respective share price returns over the last 5 years - where CLDN has thrashed RCP.

[essentialinvestor] 04/4/2024 10:54

I don't remember it hitting £17 last autumn, but if that's what your data shows, etc. Fleeting intra-day prices then.

[kiwi2007] 04/4/2024 10:02

Hannah is a generous philanthropist who occasionally sells a chunk of her very large shareholding to support various charities. Market makers will have been given a heads up that she was selling I'd imagine. Or Jacob's executors selling a few?

Chart looks like a bottom here...calling it... has been hit and recovered 3+ times on the daily chart in Oct..Nov..and Dec...@1700p

Am on the phone to my chap in Switzerland as I type ;o)

[abcurtis] 04/4/2024 08:46

Could it be dell, realise losses in the 23/24 tax year?

[spectoacc] 04/4/2024 08:45

Because nobody rings a bell at the bottom of the market :)

And the loss of chart support is as much the XD.

But in answer to your question - I've absolutely no confidence in this being the bottom. But I do like "cheap", and fairly high confidence this is cheap.

Cheap a pound higher or a pound lower too of course. More than a pound lower - all things being equal - and I'd likely be averaging.

[abcurtis] 04/4/2024 08:42

Why? Price has now gone through the bottom of any support level in the last 3 years. How do you know it's going to stop here?Why not sit on 4.5% interest on cash and wait for a sign?

[spectoacc] 04/4/2024 08:16

2,500 bought in my wife's SIPP at 1701. Plenty of stock around - L2 was 1698/1708.

[robertball] 04/4/2024 08:04

Wonder when new investment mgr will have an impact?