Tharisa Share Discussion Threads

[stemis] 10/4/2024 12:48

Comparison is really against Q2 2023

[deadly] 10/4/2024 12:08

Q2 Production slightly lower.

[faz] 09/4/2024 07:26

Platinum up strongly yesterday - $1000 in sight

[loglorry1] 05/4/2024 09:56

We do need China to turn a corner to go higher though. I'm also not really sure that there is such a future in diesel engines to support catalysts as they make out but its a hard call.

[loglorry1] 05/4/2024 09:48

I doubled my position near the bottom. SteMiS you are spot on with cyclicality. Chrome has also saved their bacon.

[nigelpm] 04/4/2024 21:40

Yes, ridiculous - Karo could yet be ok and then where does the share price go?

[stemis] 04/4/2024 19:07

Even after the rise it's currently on a valuation of < 1 x historic ebitda. I guess we'll have to see how this year pans out. PGM basket price is lower, chrome price higher. But it's an indication of the pessimism surrounding the share.

[nigelpm] 04/4/2024 18:18

Yes stemis. The bears likely pulled out right at the bottom. Often the way it goes. I do understand the concerns of course but based on factually inaccurate statements then corrected by the company.

[stemis] 04/4/2024 14:49

Actually, although I accept the figure is likely to be a bit out of date, as at 12 October 2022 the cash cost of Karo was $1,096/PGM oz. Current Karo basket price is $1,240.61.

It's excitable nonsense to claim that Tharisa have 'bet the whole company's future on Karos'. Net of Tharisa's net cash, the remaining investment in Karo (if they decided to fund it themselves) represents about 19 months ebitda.

However this is the thing about cyclical industries (mining, shipping etc). When the price is low, everyone assumes it'll always stay so and so no-one invests. Then there is a shortage of capacity, demand picks up, prices surge and everyone assumes it'll last for ever and piles in with new investment. Which causes an overcapacity and prices crash. Repeat and repeat.

No investment advice but the right time to invest is at the bottom of that cycle when optimism is at it's lowest. It wouldn't take much of an improvement in the basket price for Karo to be significantly profitable

Whatever they decide, Tharisa management have a lot of skin in the game here. I doubt they are making their decisions lightly...

[tigerbythetail] 04/4/2024 14:00

The rise is welcome. The buyback is welcome.
But the essential problem here remains unaddressed. The company is pouring money into the building of Karo in Zimbabwe, but the Karo PGM basket price remains far lower than required to make the new mine even vaguely viable.
How does the mine get finished, except on yet more Tharisa money? I don't believe they will be able to raise non-recourse debt finance for it given its economics and the jurisdiction.
Will the new mine ever break-even operationally, let alone pay back the capital invested in it and actually make money?
Can the Zimbabwe government be trusted to stick to their side of the bargain?
Management here have bet the whole company's future on Karo. I don't see any significant signs yet of the PGM market turning and improving. Therefore, I'm happy to watch and see how things develop from here.

[stemis] 04/4/2024 12:45

Pretty much back to where it was before some woeful financial analysis on London South East scared a few holders out of their shares. On the bright side I suppose it provided the company with an opportunity to buy back a few shares at a bargain price...

[ianb5004] 04/4/2024 12:27

Rising nicely since the buy back announcement. I am reliably informed there has been a large holder who wanted out which has trashed the sp, compounded by pi,s panicked sells.
Nothing like a low share price to trash sentiment. Logic can go out of the window during such times.

Ths remains a profitable divi payer thats sat at a valuation far below its worth.

[theapiarist] 26/3/2024 08:09

At these prices the company are getting a bargain.

[faz] 26/3/2024 07:21

Share buy back and why not-they have the money and the share price is way under what it it should be (as they themselves point out!).

[crooky1967] 08/3/2024 20:40

Look like a larger seller as well. Has been a few 250k sells over the past few days.

[gkace] 06/3/2024 15:48

Anyone noticed Palladium and platinum price today lol

[nigelpm] 06/3/2024 15:42

Yup - too cheap - Karo notwithstanding - I think the discount has been hugely overdone by some nervous PI's and lots following in their footsteps.

[stemis] 06/3/2024 15:32

It will be interesting to see the interims. Based on production and average basket prices in Q1 and Q2, turnover should be marginally ahead of the comparable period last year, with stronger chrome prices offsetting weaker PGM. Obviously I don't know about costs, however in comparable H1 last year company did EPS of 14p and generated (pre capex & dividends) $96m of cashflow, after a positive $23m movement in working capital.

At current share price that's an annualised P/E of 1.7

[nigelpm] 06/3/2024 15:10

Influential Twitter poster back in :

#THS I have bought back some. A 48p share price is just too low giving it a market cap of £144m and last reported net cash of $109m. Chrome prices are still really high c$290/t, shorts seem to be closing on Palladium and Platinum/Rhodium are due a move up. May not do much in the short term but I just can't sit outside at this price

[tigerbythetail] 06/3/2024 13:57

This really isn't a case of foolish PI impatience vs. wise management pursuing a long term strategy that will eventually reward patient shareholders.
The Karo (mis)adventure has the potential to go horribly wrong for Tharisa. It could drive the whole company into the ground.
That is why this company trades on a valuation that, on the face of it, seems derisory.
A reminder - just a few short years ago chrome traded at $120/t, not $300/t. If the chrome price drops and PGM prices don't pick up, then Tharisa will be in an unenviable position.

[nakedmolerat] 06/3/2024 13:12

depends what your strategy is

wait for growth, upward trend of share price, positive results

or just hold whatever the price because it looks a good buy or is cheap?

[nigelpm] 06/3/2024 11:34

100% Stemis. You see it regularly on these boards, twitter and LSE - so much short term impatience and gamblers barely looking in front of their noses.

[stemis] 06/3/2024 10:34

Directors usually have a longer time frame than most PI's, who just want to see the share price go up in the short term, take a profit and move on, even if it means liquidating the company. They are also closer to the market than most of us. I don't imagine the board of THS took the decision lightly to invest large amount of cash (42% of which would accrue to them) in Karo. If Karo is worthless, as the share price suggests, then a great chunk of the PGM mining industry is worthless and I find that hard to believe. But in the end we will see...