River And Mercantile Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 16/6/2022 21:37

I was late for sixth form college in Thames Ditton on the morning of the '87 crash as spent too much time listening to Bob Beckman's stock market reports on LBC radio - to save my already modest street credibility said I overslept.
No waterfall selling yet in terms of wider equity markets. Does not need to happen
but would expect a couple of larger % down days if this is a bear market proper.

[topvest] 16/6/2022 21:22

Interesting microscope. Yes, its all getting a bit wobbly. We still have not seen a really big down day yet. Market crash is coming though. Time to get ready.

[microscope] 16/6/2022 12:37

I vividly remember the 1987 crash. I sold shares on the Friday afternoon in my main holding Plessey, and others, from a phone box in Stone village near Aylesbury in the final hour of trading.

I don't know if I had a premonition, but the Monday brought the crash. Probably more a case of luck, but I was nervous for sure.

That summer volatility had increased and 100 point swings were common place. (A bigger percentage than 100 points today of course).

But I think we're in similar territory now. Whether this phase will make it to October I doubt very much and I think capitulation is close.

Market trends last longer than expected, and this bullish run certainly has, but 'its end is nigh'.

Possibly, nay probably, very imminently.

[topvest] 15/6/2022 19:30

I sold my RIV shares, so will get the B dividend but not the Assetco shares. I haven't got the timetable in front of me, but the scheme only completed today and so the Assetco shares won't be credited to CREST accounts for a few days yet. The B share dividend hasn't been received yet either and I think that was a 14 day wait.

[velocytongo] 15/6/2022 19:05

top, has your brokerage account been credited with the asto shares? i’ve not got mine yet.
Vtongo

[topvest] 15/6/2022 12:10

Acquisition completed then. I have poste some comments on the Assetco results on that thread. I think its fair to say that I wasn't impressed. I bet Premier Miton are relieved that they pulled out of the bidding for the RIV equity business now as it would have been a disaster for them if they had paid cash for the business. For ASTCO its just expensive paper for a now small asset manager with £2.7bn AUM.

[microscope] 14/6/2022 15:20

Thanks for that TV, and yes I agree the bull market is done. Three year FTSE (UKX) chart is particularly telling, with several failures around 7700. Any rallies unlikely to exceed that this year, and probably next.

[topvest] 14/6/2022 14:58

ASTO are difficult to value in my view, which is why I sold out of my residual RIV holding. Its a real rag-bag of a business. Its not going to be profitable straight away. I think its probably worth a minimum of c£60m cash + maybe another £50m. Its probably worth more than this, but markets are going the be dreadful for the rest of 2022 most likely.

[microscope] 14/6/2022 13:50

Any thoughts of fair value for ASTO now?I was thinking more of RIV with a silent P. :))

[topvest] 10/6/2022 17:32

With the benefit of hindsight exiting after announcement of the deal was the best way to go, but still not a bad return overall. B share cash should turn up in a week or so.

[microscope] 10/6/2022 09:39

Here was me thinking you'd exited RIV a long time ago, TV... ;)

[essentialinvestor] 06/6/2022 14:15

Great longer term call here top, well done and enjoy your gains.

[topvest] 06/6/2022 14:06

I've exited RIV today. Although Assetco will have c£60m of cash on day 1 and with a market cap of c£140m or so, its ending up a bit of a messy group with a downsized RIV business with about £3bn AUM, central costs x 2, Two very small managers (Rize ETF and Saracen) and a 30% holding in Parmenion. The price is also getting hammered with those thinking the same and presumably not wanting Assetco shares. I can't see Assetco being profitable for a while, and conditions have certainly materially deteriorated in the last 6m, so there are far better opportunities elsewhere in the asset management sector. I also think there is risk of further defections from RIV once the deal has gone through. Overall, not convinced.
RIV has netted me a 35% profit after the B shares in c5 years, before dividends. Not a bad return as the dividends were good. Overall, I am still a bit disappointed with the outcome though. I had hoped for more from RIV as it was a really good company.
In my view, Martin Gilbert has not really created that much value. OK, the Schroders sale was good, but it destroyed value in the asset manager and US business. Martin Gilbert looks a bit all over the place on strategy. Hopefully, Christopher Mills will keep him heading in the right direction. All looks a bit S4 Capital like!
Oh well, a profit is a profit.
I will continue to follow Harwood through holding the investment vehicles of Christopher Mills; I may buy directly into Assetco when it can be valued more clearly, but think I will pass for now.

[topvest] 31/5/2022 10:43

Its quite an unusual situation.
Today you can sell Assetco at 948p and buy RIV at 61.8p.
Let's sell 100 Assetco at 948p = £948.
And reinvest the £948 in RIV at 61.8p gives 1,533 shares.
Each 1,533 shares gets converted into 0.07392 Assetco gives 113 Assetco shares.
So, still a slight turn to be made, but now equalising.

[pleco] 31/5/2022 10:27

As long as AST doesn't drop further I will make approx £100(30%) more waiting than selling today.

[velocytongo] 31/5/2022 09:51

"0.07392 shares in Assetco plc in exchange for each River and Mercantile Group plc share held"

Is this multplied by the AssetCo share price on the day or has the Assetco price already been agreed for the purposes of the calculation?

The fall in AssetCo could be due to selling by people who have managed to get a borrow on the AssetCo shares.

Vt

[dijon52] 31/5/2022 08:36

Can see this 100p soon

[topvest] 31/5/2022 08:28

B shares deducted from the price today then. It looks like its opening in the 60s.

[topvest] 30/5/2022 19:13

RIV up 5% and Assetco down 17%. Very high volumes traded in both today. It looks like some Assetco holders have decided to sell their Assetco shares and buy RIV. There could be more of this when the B shares come into effect.

[topvest] 25/5/2022 20:23

221.38p confirmed for the B share - record date 1 June and payment date 7 June.
New Assetco shares on 15 June.

[velocytongo] 24/5/2022 17:57

Wondering if someone has managed to get a borrow to short the stock?

[topvest] 24/5/2022 14:36

Assetco share price is starting to wilt? £12 to buy £13.20 to buy.

[topvest] 21/5/2022 19:06

I think the base cost for the B share issue is 220p / 220p + the share price on day 1 after B shares. So, it should be 220/c320p but based on current prices could be 220p/265p so more base cost against the Solutions business. Probably makes sense actually as the Assetco bit is no longer worth £100m..Probably £50-60m.

[velocytongo] 21/5/2022 06:39

I'd not given the issue much thought. I think you are saying that the CGT liability should be calculated on your 265p investment? In other words, approx 330p on 265p, as per your earlier post. I'd agree with you and am happy to make the case to the HMRC. In any event, I suspect that I will have losses this year that I can use!