Countrywide Share Discussion Threads

[3rdtimearound] 31/12/2020 11:42

Countrywide are worth much more than this. The housing and mortgage market is booming with turnover and prices increasing and with the right board it will be worth so much more this time next year. At £3.95 a share it is a steal. Even in the statement they grudgingly admit the following and try to justify the figure using crowd pleasing uplift from once in a lifetime depressed share price due to covid!

'Whilst the Countrywide Board remains confident that the Company could deliver significant value for its shareholders as an independent company, it notes that the terms of the Acquisition represent a premium of approximately:
• 172 per cent. to the Closing Price of 145.0 pence per Countrywide Share on 6 November 2020 (being the last Business Day prior to the commencement of the Offer Period); and
• 241 per cent. to the six month volume weighted average price of 115.7 pence per Countrywide Share to 6 November 2020 (being the last Business Day prior to the commencement of the Offer Period).'

Also do they still own a stake in Rightmove and if so what is that worth alone?

[dealy] 31/12/2020 08:24

Staffline is the next one to go this way. 1 billion revenue yet just 24m market cap.

[techno20] 31/12/2020 08:24

5p out! Feels like a fair outcome. Significant premium for shareholders vs recent share price and upside potential for Connells. Can’t see any further developments from here. Time to move on for me. GLA

[bigbigdave] 31/12/2020 08:07

395p, well done anyone buying under a pound!

[heialex1] 29/12/2020 12:50

Not sure £20 is possible, but certainly lots of value here if they can sort things out. Look at the size of the Lettings book for starters.

[hillofwad] 29/12/2020 12:49

Alchemy are a distressed share buyer so unlikley to be tabling much more of a bid .Probably better opps elsewhere for them

Connells might bid 400p which I hope gets rejected
I see a capital raise at 325p of perhaps £25m with Paterson moving into the role of Exec Chairman

That would be the best possible outcome for shareholders to restart the journey

[techno20] 29/12/2020 12:35

Not sure about £20-25, but the current bid level provides plenty of upside for Alchemy or Connells. As an illustration, CWD is bigger in Mortgage broking than MAB, who are currently valued at £425m! There’s still plenty of work to do to turn around CWD, especially in terms of Technology, but the dominance in key markets, combined with the strength of its brands should drive more than £3.25! Interesting move this morning - suggests something imminent. My bets an agreed deal with Connells at £4. Hope I’m proved wrong and £20 is on its way!

[spagboll] 29/12/2020 10:19

Generally agree, I've been very disappointed with the management as I see masses of opportunity for the group. They don't seem to leverage what they have, I know from personal experience. I wrote to them to tell them what I was seeing but was ignored. Personally it is a shame that I can't buy a stake in Connells especially if they succeed in taking this over. But as a tiny PI I am glad to sit back and watch the show, I may even come out with a small profit on my shares,at 350p I was about breakeven. Certainly feel for those that won't as I initially bought some after I thought it couldn't get any lower.

[3rdtimearound] 29/12/2020 10:03

The latest offer of approx £112m by Connells nowhere near reflects the current value and future potential of the group and brands. The smaller Countrywide group was last sold for over £1000m in 2007 and the IPO in 2013 was £750m! The group is probably trading very well and with the right board this could easily rise to these levels and beyond again. The current debt should be manageable in the future. Connells & Alchemy both know this only too well. The offers are far too low. The fair price of each share should be between £20 & £25. Anything less is an opportunist giveaway. A genuine new competent board fully on the side of the shareholders coupled with a capital injection via the shareholders will do wonders to raise this phoenix once again. What do you think?

[spagboll] 29/12/2020 09:43

Looks that way. Implies that a better offer is about to appear, I hope so!

[techno20] 29/12/2020 08:48

News leaking?

[hillofwad] 07/12/2020 14:47

Babbler

No guarantee that the major shareholders will accept Connells offer .Unlikely to be their last word in the matter but even if they table 350p many shareholders would prefer a capital raise and dilution

Every chance that CWD could treble in value within 2 years

[babbler] 07/12/2020 13:43

Make not mar

[babbler] 07/12/2020 13:43

I don't get it. Can't you go long now and Mar 11 points when they get taken out for 325?

[babbler] 07/12/2020 08:36

So can get it 20p cheaper per share?

[bigbigdave] 07/12/2020 08:08

The board of Connells Limited ("Connells") is pleased to announce a firm cash offer for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Countrywide plc ("Countrywide") at a price of 325 pence per Countrywide Share (the "Offer").

[hillofwad] 04/12/2020 15:26

Looks like Robin Paterson with his 10%+ is now the kingmaker.

We are a few weeks short of the end of the year November had been performing extremely well yet shareholders have been kept in the dark about current debt position / revenue etc

That information badly needed for shareholders to make their minds up

Looking forward to see if Connells table an offer of 300p+ on Monday to put the cat amongst the pigeons

[jane deer] 04/12/2020 14:53

According to Alchemy RNS, Hosking (among others) has signed at letter of intent to support the Alchemy proposal.

Interesting that the new Alchemy proposal will lead to a gross raise of £70m for Countrywide, while the original proposal was for a £90m gross raise. The reason for lowering this amount by £20m is not given. Maybe this is a reflection of the greater visibility of H2 earnings and less is needed. Hopefully the outrageous £8m of fees in the original proposal have been reduced too - but I won't hold my breath.

[hillofwad] 02/12/2020 16:23

Alchemy desperately trying to steal this before end of year knowing that H2 is going to be bouncing and revenue likely to be 30%+ higher than H2 FY 19.

Shareholders unlikely to be taking any guidance from a set of BODS who have failed them miserably. The Alchemy bid is not going to appeal to Paterson & Hoskings so little chance of succeeding

Suspect Connells will need to hit back at say 325p to have any chance of winning the races

[techno20] 02/12/2020 12:53

JD - my reading was also that existing shareholders could sell 100% @ £2.50, but agreed it wasn’t clear. The BOD deserve no credit for what’s happened, the fact that Alchemy have raised the purchase price by 40% following some pressure from Connells - who’s offer seems to continue to be being ignored, demonstrates they just rolled over! CWD remains the largest EA in the country, with some of the strongest brands, alongside a major presence in mortgage broking, surveying, asset management and Conveyancing. Even with the debt factored in, this remains Great value at £2.50 IMO. Hopefully Connells will come back in to extract better value for long suffering PI’s!

[jane deer] 02/12/2020 12:37

It seems that institutional shareholders are split between those who want out at 250p and those who want to stay in. The current situation, assuming that Alchemy firms up its "revised proposal", looks reasonable. As I read the revised indicative Alchemy proposal, smaller shareholders who want to sell at 250p will be able to sell 100% of their shares at the 250p (the RNS is not crystal clear on this point, but that is my reading of it), while those who want to stay invested, will be able to add to their holding - and at a significant discount to the price that Alchemy will pay (as should be the case as Alchemy is gaining control).

Connells is left with the option of either walking away or going hostile/ increasing price.

The BoD will no doubt claim some credit for this - saying that by accepting the totally unacceptable initial proposal from Alchemy they got the ball rolling. But this, IMHO, would be giving credit to the BoD, when it is not due.

[hillofwad] 26/11/2020 07:32

Yes most likely outcome is a capital raise with dilution so share price under threat.Should imagine anyone making a move here will be soon.H2 is going to be good news Last weeks sales revenue throughout the brands showing no slowing down particularly pleasing for this time of year.