Cambridge Cognition Share Discussion Threads

[jasperlachat] 15/4/2024 11:55

Very exciting company/sector. Ridiculously low market cap. Unfortunately will be gobbled up by a private equity company at this meagre valuation. Then again everything is going cheap at UK plc.

[earwacks] 15/4/2024 10:53

Looking at Monument therapeutics pipeline this morning. ‘Neurology set to be in next decade what oncology has been in the last decade.’ Psychiatry and Neurology paths. Possible drug development in long Covid and schizophrenia amongst many. Disappointing to see this back at 52p, but if you have patience this could be very rewarding carrying 25per cent of Monument as well

[40 fathoms] 06/3/2024 13:31

@smithe6 - I think the next 18 to 24 months will settle the debate one way or another.

Leaving aside the healthcare opportunity for the moment. I would suggest you take a look at what is happening within the industry and keep in mind there are only 2, fully validated, providers of digital cognitive tests, Cogstate being the other and their are certainly only 2 that can deploy at scale and across multiple indications.

At the current time +90% of all cognitive tests in clinical trials are conducted via traditional pencil and paper tests, these are administered by a neuropsychologist (rater) who has to be additionally trained in the trial protocol (The current charge out rate for a rater Is between $600 and $800 per hour). There are many inherent problems with this approach, not least of which is test variability but also the cost of administration, which typically are only undertaken at a trial site. However, the digital tests are now fully validated in most indications can be administered anywhere and are now starting to make traction in many early stage trials. While these early stage trials are typically small and of low value as the therapy moves through the trial phases the value increases significantly. As an example Cogstate's largest contract to date was for $35 million for Lilly's AD Trailblazer Phase III, which should lead to the FDA approval of Donanemab any day now, they also have an order book of over US$ 100 million.

If this trend continues and the regulatory push towards decentralised clinical trials suggests it should, then the potential growth is enormous. However, given we are still coming off a small base it will be lumpy as one large contract won, lost or cancled can have a significant financial impact at this stage.

The other thing worth considering is that neither Cambridge Cognition nor Cogstate consider the other to be a competitor at this point. They claim they are almost never bid against each other for a contract and for various reasons this is likely to be true. Both say that their main competition is traditional pencil and paper tests and not each others digital tests.

So if we are at breakeven level now and if over 3 or 4 years we can double revenue we will be looking at a company that is producing EBIT of 10-12 million per year. We have a handful of AD trials that are currently in Phase II, if a couple of them move in to Phase III we would not need to win very much more new business to achieve a doubling in revenue.

[jasperlachat] 05/3/2024 11:49

“Criminally low valuation” - too right! The UK stock market stinks. If this is taken out at some paltry valuation (where I incur a loss) it will be the last UK stock I buy.

[earwacks] 05/3/2024 10:32

dull? Cog reached about £1.80 a few years ago having crashed to 22p at one stage. Back up to 1.30 and back down to 48p. Now rising. It was ‘dull last year like much of the market not in takeover talks. Spt today gone on a criminally low valuation. Our stocks are being stolen by wealthy American investors because they see value very differently. Plus they have 25 percent of Monument sitting pretty. If you want dull try vod, Bt or any British bank!
Why would cog need a heavily discounted placing?The loan note guys have options to buy more shares at 75p. That will be another injection of cash , slightly diluting the shares.
Read a report yesterday saying that 100 companies left the LSE last year either delisting or being taken over. Companies listed on LSE have reduced by 40 percent since 2008. Don’t know how true this is, but the implications for remaining quality stocks it would seem to me will become in very short supply

[smithie6] 05/3/2024 10:29

....one could debate whether it should be a listed company...& expected to grow or to pay dividends
...or be expected to just operate at break even, mostly providing a service to pharma companies for their drug trials

It's record so far as a listed company seems pretty dull to me.

The long term chart is a disaster imo. Looks a bit like a patient's heart monitor screen at a hospital, but over 10 years. Up then down, up then down.

[nchanning] 05/3/2024 10:16

This is on a knife edge , beat by a couple of million on revenue next year and it's a profitable , cash generative , high gross margin growth company in a very exciting sector . Miss by a couple of million and it's a perpetually loss making , indebted no growth company in need of an urgent heavily discounted placing

[lawson27] 05/3/2024 10:09

Quarterly breakout, GLA

[lawson27] 04/3/2024 16:10

Be nice to see this one break out of its recent trading range, GLA

[earwacks] 04/3/2024 12:01

I have the occasional look in as he does sometimes conduct a good interview, n
But his doctor like prognosis on chart reading is quite ridiculous, particularly on illiquid small caps that seem more inappropriate than bigger market cap stock. I did follow Alpesh Patel (ex barrister/stock analyst). He used charts more for momentum investing, which I kind of get, but still find it pretty micky mouse investing. Paul Scot says he has been approached by the board of Cog for an interview. Paul is interested in Cog to a degree but has been a bit wary of late. Seems to be getting slightly more interested again. I expect you are correct about sudden moves. Brett Gordon has increased his stake twice recently without much impact. I think it must have been an overhang from director sells in the acquired companies. Normally his buys would have pushed the stock right back up.

[40 fathoms] 03/3/2024 01:03

No, I don't follow him. Though I would hope that when we do finally break this range it will mover higher than 59p. My suspicion is that when we finally move up decisively it will be with a large and violent move. If no significant news has dropped before hand it will be with Ty confirmation with the annual results that we expect to return to profitability this year that will do it.

[earwacks] 29/2/2024 16:08

Anyone follow Zak Mir? He got this on his billboard hero the other day suggesting that it didn’t quite make the gap up on the 50 MA but should hit 59p in a few weeks if you hang some seaweed up and the wind is in the right direction. Great career that guy has made for himself. Love the cafe bit. So relaxed……;…

[40 fathoms] 26/2/2024 23:32

We have had one, possibly two, larger sellers since December. If it is AXA and/or 2312 North LLC today should have basically cleared them out. In terms of a T/O here I agree it is a real possibility but my suspicion is it would not be done cheap. Nigel Wray has a @15% holding and in effect the ability to block any approach and he is not known for giving things away.

I think the market will react once it wakes up to the fact that we will be pretax profitable this year and that after that, with our @+75% gross margins, it means the vast majority of any additional revenue falls straight to the bottom line.

Next year we are forecast to do revenue of 17.5 million and a PBT of 1.8 million and in the three years beyond that I can see no reason why we could not push revenue beyond 25 million (Cogstate are already doing more than this) and if we were pick up a large stage II or III AD trial then maybe we even through 30 million.

[bedford1976] 26/2/2024 19:10

What is baffling me today is apparently 716k shares have been traded. I monitor this share most days and it normally trades 7k - 35k on a regular basis. Seems a huge spike in trading but unfortunately no upward movement in the share price. Quite a disappointing day really.

[earwacks] 26/2/2024 16:50

It’s a sad truth that for whatever reason there seems little sustainable support for uk companies at the moment while the rest of the world market seems to be in overdrive. Paul Scott did make an interesting observation on the Dow suggesting that 6 of the top 7 stocks were actually realistically valued. Tesla being the only one significantly overvalued. Many uk stocks got taken over last year well short of their potential. My worry is that in a few years time if this continues there will be nothing left in the uk worth investing in long term. Be full of Vods BTs and crummy Uk financials. I don’t have a large variety of holdings but I would say over half run the risk of being taken out cheaply in the next year or two. This is certainly one of them

[jasperlachat] 26/2/2024 12:49

The acquisition seems sound strategically. Seems a pretty exciting proposition at this meagre market cap. Seems chicken-feed for any potential suitor. Would be sad if it went this way.

[purplepelmets] 26/2/2024 11:53

ew, i would add too, but so teed off about that aquisition which meant we would be running at a loss for years more instead of running at a profit already. did not seem significant or neccessary to scupper the share price like that. cant forgive Storky for this

[40 fathoms] 26/2/2024 11:28

Nice to get a little bit of volume, it should help clear the very persistent seller we have seen over the last 6 or 7 weeks. My guess is that it AXA or 2312 North LLC who are the last of the holders of shares taken as partial payment for the Winterlight acquisition.

[lab305] 26/2/2024 10:51

I would have bought on the tip but price marked up too much before the open , too big a spread and could not buy any meaningful quantity (only 10k trades) . My experience is they companies that are hard to buy can also be hard to sell so for all those reasons no deal !

[earwacks] 26/2/2024 10:34

Newspaper tips are bottom of the pack behind even broker recommendations.i think stockopedia did some actual research into it. Individual investor/journalists can have some influence depending on their following, short term. Ultimately it’s institutional buys and directors, liquidity of stock that affects prices but mainly the numbers hitting or beating targets and forecasts. Life science had a dreadful 2023 which resulted in loan notes being required here to back up successful and possibly crucial takeovers. Patience is often rewarded well. Pretty good list of them here on the top stock holder list. I did get a small top up in last week and hoping to add again before we get lift off

[bedford1976] 26/2/2024 10:07

To be honest the share price hasn't gone up very much considering the Midas tip yesterday.
Obviously Sunday paper share tips do do generate as much investor interest as you would think.

[40 fathoms] 24/2/2024 23:55

Midas write up in Mail.




"Last year was difficult for Stork and his team. Hit by slower economic growth and rising costs, many drug firms scaled back testing activity. Cambridge Cognition still increased sales by 7 per cent to £13.5 million, but made an operating loss of £1.2 million.

Conditions improved in the second half, however, orders are growing and brokers expect revenues of £16 million and profits of £600,000 for 2024, rising materially over the next few years."

[40 fathoms] 21/2/2024 12:46

@Cerrito

I think we must be looking at different Dowgate notes. The one I have shows (on page 3) net cash at the end of 2024 going up by @300k and this is after reducing the gross debt to 2.1 million. This would seem to suggest that the ongoing repayments are captured.

[cerrito] 21/2/2024 12:21

Read the Dowgate comment on this morning's RNS and very sensibly they have not adjusted their forecasts.
I revisited their forecasts for this year and pleased to see that they have a FCF of £200k but note that they did not include the £900k in loan repayments due this year.

[earwacks] 21/2/2024 12:09

Brett Gordon added another .8 percent taking his holding to over 7 per cent.would be kicking myself if I missed out completely on this price. Seems like there maybe some overhang still if .8 percent cant shift the share price Have to think seriously about making some more funds available. Dont really like the doldrum state of the market so far this year, but encouraging to see stocks like cmcx recover and my broker Jarvis come to that! Gl all