Spectra Systems Share Discussion Threads

[divmad] 11/4/2024 06:52

Counterfeit UK bar coded stamps are two a penny on Flea Bay. I know, because I got caught out several times in my business on my genuine postal sales.

[boonkoh] 11/4/2024 00:31

Hard to stamp out (no pun intended!) counterfeiting of stamps. It's a low value item. And one use - so not economical to put in advance security features as used for banknotes.But I ask you this - the level of counterfeiting was probably much higher before barcodes. When stamps all look the same generic look. It's just that back then, it was much harder to detect counterfeits. Now easier, with the unique barcode. So the rate of counterfeiting probably isn't higher. Just the detection rate. Which is good for Cartor, and Royal Mail, as they can charge more £5 fines and make more revenues.It'll also mean more people only buy stamps direct from RM or a Post Office, which is higher margin for RM.

[fft] 03/4/2024 03:53

Royal mail (who deliver things) and the post office are separate companies. They were split in 2012.Cartor supply the post office directly with the stamps. Are the post office carrying out random checks on the stamps they have in stock ?The next question is who supplies Royal Mail with scanners to check these stamps. Is it Cartor or someone else ? Or are they using multiple checks. It is disappointing that, so far, the royal mail don't seem to have explained why any stamps have failed the checks - but that could be a security issue.Are they then sending the stamps back to Cartor for Cartor to check them ? A number of cases have been reported that individual stamps within books of stamps have been declared counterfeit but others haven't. That could be because not all mail is checked or that different scanners have different settings.Either way, the post office surely don't want another scandal so would expect them to be actively investigating - though they don't seem to be yet :-(

[someuwin] 02/4/2024 23:38

Another Royal Mail scandal brewing? Lots of stories emerging about customers being fined for using counterfeit barcoded stamps which were bought legitimately. Either the stamps aren't being printed correctly or the detecting equipment is faulty.

Potential issue for SPSY as they own the company that makes the stamps and presumably the scanners as well?



From 11 December 2023...

UK stamp printer bought by US player

Spectra Systems has acquired Cartor in a deal to take a jointly developed polymer for currency to commercial status.
The company that prints the King’s head on millions of stamps each year has been acquired by US company Spectra Systems in a deal worth £10.5 million.

...Cartor operates from a high security plant in Wolverhampton where production equipment includes a ten-unit Cerutti gravure press, Goebel web press and range of Domino inkjet presses for producing the barcodes that are now integral to postage stamps for the Royal Mail and other postal authorities.

[pj 1] 31/3/2024 19:53

It has always been a share that needs regular positive news flow to prevent the wild fluctuations downwards at times.

[nico115] 31/3/2024 19:18

Spot on Harrogate

[argylerich] 31/3/2024 10:15

Spot on Harrogate

[harrogate] 31/3/2024 09:46

Great to have some interesting perspectives here - I am along standing shareholder here at 10 + years and it has been a fantastic investment for me so I am probably too positive on the prospects but I think Buff is too negative. It is true that the €50m Reader contract through 2025 - 2027 will create a bump in sales and profitability that Nabil needs to fill post that period. I agree that only Fusion is of a size to truly do that but with the recent Cartor deal there are more drivers of growth than before and also margin improvement across both Companies so I don't see it as without Fusion we will be back to 2024 levels at all
But we will need to break into Polymer if we are to really get the share price to a multiple of where we are so what are the chances - on the negative side there have been many opportunities that Nabil has talked about that have just not happened and where he has proved much too optimistic. Many of these have been in brand authentication where SPSY doesn't have a good base and is crazily competitive but in currency they have an amazing position and reputation. So while it is no slam dunk I think he will break into Polymer in the next 2-3 years and thus fill that gap and if he does the share price will be much much higher than today. If he doesn't I don't see it being lower as the Reader contract will provide the funds for other M&A and/or increased dividends and we still have a very profitable company. I think the current price offers very good risk/reward

[nico115] 31/3/2024 00:10

I have no teer for Buffet.But I have a teer for you .

[nico115] 31/3/2024 00:08

I am worried about equities post the elections though and any mkt crash would obviously decimate any price targets I have on anything so I retain the unenviable right to alter my price targets based on a deterioration in macro conditions . Global debt with another resurgence in inflation would worry me . As would a deflationary bust with some more QE.

[buffetteer] 30/3/2024 22:05

At least get the name right Dico (the one man Q&A board !!)

[nico115] 30/3/2024 15:48

Thanks ,great write up.I would back ST over Buffeter : )

[nico115] 30/3/2024 15:47

Thanks Elrico

[nico115] 30/3/2024 15:47

Still prefer it to EqlsI think we will win CB contracts for fusion hence my 100 bagger target of 17 pounds plus ..probably 20 pounds .

[petewy] 30/3/2024 15:39

see ST in IC

[elrico] 30/3/2024 14:49

Spectra Systems #SPSY showcases robust financials with a 4% dividend, underpinned by a clear growth roadmap. Short-term prospects (2024-2026) span sensor contracts to security materials, while long-term (2027-2030) eyes global passport security and high-value holograms. tinyurl.com/2rsxcyh2https://x.com/lemminginvestor/status/1774070217263460476?s=46

[buffetteer] 30/3/2024 14:02

Just for a little balance to the brazen ramping above . There is no certainty at all that Spectra will win any polymer substrate contracts . It’s pure hope & should be treated as such . When the central bank sensor replacement contract ends in a year or two there is currently NOTHING to replace it so revenues would fall back to similar to todays levels unless they are lucky enough to win a substrate contract .

[nico115] 30/3/2024 12:13

However long it takes us to get 5 Central Banks to sign up to Fusion . One will get us to 300p ,two to 400pOver and above and the sky is the limit .Back managements not stocks.No idea on price targets as impossible to have one as many moving targets but I believe in Nabil . He delivers and wants to make his shareholders a lot of money .

[pj 1] 30/3/2024 11:25

In what sort of time frame?

[nico115] 30/3/2024 10:54

I don't believe Nabil was put on this earth to be CEO of a $100m mkt cap company .I believe he will be CEO of a $1bn plus company .That is Spsy = £20That's my price target here .

[boonkoh] 27/3/2024 12:46

Playing out as expected....Casual investors who only skim the Financials sold off based on the FY23 numbers.But dig deeper and the huge growth potential in FY24, FY25 is evident.One only has to look at the WH Ireland updated forecasts. Huge jump to 20c+ EPS for FY25. And that's them taking a highly conservative view of only contracted revenues.

[gnome3] 27/3/2024 09:13

The CSP acquisition looks increasingly like the final piece of the jigsaw. We've been saying for a while that the move into substrate supply would be game changing and that now seems a whole lot closer.
For a company that has made a habit of being cautious about future projections, they seem remarkably confident of 2024 earnings.

[fozzie] 27/3/2024 09:07

Need to see that manufacturing contract come through and the details of it. Shame they couldn't get it over the line and into todays statement.

[robsy2] 27/3/2024 07:31

All looks good . Slightly improved dividend at 11.6 cents = 9.2p =4% and a very encouraging outlook;

"The acquisition of CSP is transformative and brings security printing into the core capabilities of the Company. CSP brings many optical materials opportunities through their existing sales pipelines and provides Spectra with a secure supply on a par with the two largest banknote polymer substrate suppliers. Excess capacity at CSP will be critical to polymer substrate manufacturing and the acquisition will increase Spectra margins and supply chain stability.

The combination of the sensor revenues, expected to begin with the execution of the manufacturing contract, as well as the increased opportunities for optical materials and downstream polymer substrate sales are expected to result in record revenues, cash generation, and continued long term growth.

The Board therefore believes that the Company is on track to achieve record earnings in 2024."

[death by donut] 14/3/2024 07:03

In case anyone missed the RNS yday , results on 27th March.DbD