Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[nafafa] 25/4/2024 07:32

No results, no great surprise. Symptomatic of the disdain they have for shareholders.

[andrewbyles] 24/4/2024 22:53

Based upon last week’s announcement, we should get the update in the morning and a presentation on Friday.

I should correct something I wrote earlier in the week: last week’s reserves announcement provided the reserve figure at the end of December 2023. Therefore, if Jacobin is now producing anything and does add to reserves, it won’t have been reflected in that figure. It’ll be very disappointing if they haven’t managed to exploit the Forest level oil. We should know more tomorrow (I still hope that they might manage to produce at least a little rabbit).

[aqc888] 24/4/2024 20:28

For the board to be taking salaries of c.10% of market cap per annum is beyond extreme and what could be considered reasonable by any shareholder of any company… no wonder Trinity is battered by the market… a truly hopeless carcass of a company being feasted on by a failed and greedy board. Whilst shareholders hopelessly watch on hoping, halfheartedly for change.

[nocents] 24/4/2024 20:22

I agree with what you say. It would have to be forced. Julian comes from a M and A background, not that you would know it.
I feel that things have gone past the point of no return now regarding the well-being of shareholders, and I agree that in a company paying stonking salaries to a CEO, several execs, 5 NED’s etc., that they will not want change.I run the risk of being unfair, but my history is of being too fair.

[aqc888] 24/4/2024 17:11

Could an M&A banker be appointed by shareholders and report directly to shareholders? I’m not convinced any action will take place without it being forced… neither does the market by the look of it

[nocents] 24/4/2024 15:15

I would agree, but Trinity have shown time and time again that they have their own agendas. They would need a strategic review imposed upon them in my genuine opinion. Happy to be wrong as always, but Trin have not shown the greatest business acumen around since Bruce passed away. I await any news, and see if what I am saying is baloney or carries a grain of truth.

[aqc888] 24/4/2024 09:04

AB, perhaps the best route forward would be to keep the board and press them to appoint an M&A investment banking team to handle a sale?

[andrewbyles] 23/4/2024 23:12

The book value of Galeota is £24 million (a value based upon the exploration costs, not the reserves).

The actual value of the asset is something different and complicated by the facts that: (i) it may not be possible to separate it from Trintes; and (ii) it may not be possible to separate it from the £130 million of tax losses (which will save about £50 million of profit tax) associated with that licence and Trintes.

What we know is that Cavendish value Trinity at 347p per share if it can fund exploitation of its assets.

Right now it looks unlikely that Trinity can fund exploitation of its assets. No one is keen on large borrowing or raising equity at this price (which would ruin the possibility of obtaining a decent return). However, there’s plenty of room for Trinity to sell itself or its assets for a price multiple times the current share price and for the buyer(s) to then go on to make a large profit too. Perhaps the only good thing that can be said about last week’s reserves write down is that it’ could be the start of a realistic appraisal of the company’s assets in readiness for a sale.

[aqc888] 23/4/2024 23:01

Trinity’s share market cap is £15m. The value of Galeota is around £20m, according to earlier posts here.
So, should there be an announcement regarding talks of a sale of Galeota, which wouldn’t be that odd since the ceo has already stated “all options are on the table”, we could reasonably see the share price doubling off the back of that…

[aqc888] 22/4/2024 18:21

Jacobin could be producing a fairly insignificant volume of oil that was not worthy of an announcement…

[nocents] 22/4/2024 13:33

AR price now $73.8. With May and June left in Q2, there is a good chance no SPT. Average so far this month stands at $76.
With regards to the future, Galeota sales are the only way, but a reluctant board only looking after their own careers may need a strategic review imposed upon them.
It seems Jacobin “ which will eventually pay for itself” is not producing at all or they would have had to let the market know.
If no good news, a strategic review should be imposed asap in order to facilitate a proper forward plan. Buenos Ayres is almost a year off and the licence has still not been formally awarded. It will need considerable capex, as roads need building and equipment moved in.
I have never known a good Q1 report, usually because of insurance, oil price etc. This time there are different variables at play. No offshore SPT for the first time. Decent oil price , etc.
The radio silence has been deafening and prolonged.
All to play for….

[orbit007] 21/4/2024 21:30

I think honestly, if the company keep production stable for 12 months, the cash position will ensure the share price doubles or triples..so I frankly don't care too much what they say about anything other than building the cash up - they should be able to earn their way back into favour and sell off the offshore assets.

[lexus880] 21/4/2024 18:59

Upgraded in IC EPS 57% I hope it gets noticed.

[andrewbyles] 21/4/2024 18:38

Over the next few days we should get a better understanding of the extent to which Trinity is undervalued.

Hopefully, during the past few months of silence, the company has been working on maintaining base production, cutting costs and planning for the future. Unfortunately, the significant fall in reserves announced earlier this week doesn’t point to good news about Jacobin or the other Hummingbirds (if there is good news, it’ll mean that previously declared reserves fell by even more than announced and were partially compensation for by Jacobin; but then if Jacobin makes a material difference to reserves, one would have expected an update before now).

Without some good news next week, it’ll be all the more apparent that the future is a strategic review with the aiming of selling the company either in parts or whole.

[nocents] 19/4/2024 12:42

TBH you don’t get much more undervalued than this. Cash yield plus cash held outstrips market cap! Free cash flow has doubled so cash at end of year will almost have made up for Jacobin.
There will be a rerate at some stage.
Dodgy piece of trading there btw. UT or sale after close of play at 38p. Assume £30k trade was a buy(?).

[aqc888] 19/4/2024 08:13

With the war in the Middle East escalating I’d imagine undervalued oilers will start attracting attention

[nafafa] 18/4/2024 23:57

Whilst the large shareholders may not be prepared to sell off cheap, it is they who may conspire to take it private and screw the small shareholders.

[nocents] 18/4/2024 17:48

I second that. When Trinity does rise, it goes into orbit. I have my Grinch -issues with management, but we have the security of the large holders and 5 NED’s who are not likely to see this sold off on the cheap. And the management and particularly the ceo, need to rebuild street-cred. The ceo should be removed if we get a poor update next week. Too many screw-ups.
But this price is not sustainable, especially with free cash flow as it is. And there is no reason why Buenos Ayres should not be drilled and producing in less than a year , as the Jacobin mess-up will have made them more cautious thank goodness. No debt. $74.2 actual received price atm. A few weeks below $73 should negate spt. It has been $76.5 in April.
When Trin dors rise, it won’t be sowly. There are few shares, and the buybacks made that more poignant.
I hope for news on intention to sell part or all of Galeota, and hope the ceo is not put off change because of his mighty regular salary. Time for Newlands et al to intervene. As will we.

[aqc888] 18/4/2024 16:03

Many cases where a share is cheap like this… and then it’s not.

[sleepy] 18/4/2024 13:48

Sad to say that in my experience when a share is cheap like this it is often a reflection of the markets view of management and board

[orbit007] 18/4/2024 12:55

On the last investor presentation in Dec 23, in the Q&A, it was stated that at that point, the next 6-9 months would be about rebuilding the balance sheet. The latest Cavendish broker note is forecasting a y/e cash position in excess of $10m USD. With the current market cap at £15m is it really correct that the valuation of the company is basically going to be closing in on net cash by year end? I think there is something drastically wrong about the valuation here, surely if they just ran down the assets and returned money to shareholders, sold off the offshore prospects in a multi bagger. Market can only be assuming the money made will be frittered away rather than being returned.

[pavey ark] 18/4/2024 11:28

The Investor Meet session will be tied to the date of the Q1 announcement.

Last year this announcement was on the 27Th so possibly a few days earlier this year.

Can't give a date for Investor Meet until all the figures are in for Q1.