Watermark Global Share Discussion Threads

[waldron] 18/5/2023 06:49

London flood defence plan brought forward by 15 years due to growing climate threat

Stuart Stone
clock 17 May 2023 • 4 min read

[waldron] 08/4/2023 17:43

Risk Management News


Treading the waters – a look at the risks that will shape the future

Addressing water risks fundamental to adapting to climate change, says AXA

Treading the waters – a look at the risks that will shape the future


By Kenneth Araullo
Apr 06, 2023


A new report from AXA has shone a light on the water risks that many industries and businesses are facing, especially as the world adapts to the challenges of climate change


The report outlines not only the risks involved, but their grouping according to the damages that they can cause, and which industries are most likely to be affected by them

The insurer said that the report aims to improve its clients’ understanding of water-related risks and how they can affect their operations. The weight of these negative effects, in turn, can hopefully be a deterrent to combat them and improve water security across the world

AXA categorizes water risks based on the effects that they can cause: physical, reputational, or regulatory. Regardless of its category, all these risks have varying levels of impact that they can cause to various businesses and industries


Determining the physical risks

Physical risks vary, but they can be summed up as having too much water (floods) or too little of it (drought, unclean water). Below are the physical risks outlined by the report:

Water scarcity – a risk that heavily affects the industries and sectors with the highest water usage. The food and beverage industry, agriculture, apparel and textiles, utilities, and manufacturing are all shown to be at risk from the insufficiency of water


Climate change and threats to ecosystems – besides the general uncertainty caused by the constantly changing climate, its damage to ecosystems through more disastrous weather events cannot be overstated. Industries that will suffer from water scarcity are also exposed to the risks posed by climate change, in addition to transport and logistics, which will be affected by disruptions to their distribution operations

Poor water and pollution of water resources – scarcity is not the only risk that targets the world’s water security, as the lack of access to clean water is also a major hindrance. Food and drink production, as well as agriculture, are all at risk when there’s little clean water to go around. Pharmaceuticals and tech sectors are also vulnerable to poor water quality

Flooding – with the New Zealand property insurance sector expected to take a major hit due to recent extreme weather events, flooding has proven itself to be a risk that will be taken more and more seriously as the world goes through the effects of climate change. All industries can be affected by flooding, but it’s the transport sector that is possibly the most exposed due to its disruption of roads and other means of transportation


Poor management of water resources – a risk that’s highly relevant for water companies. Poor management of water resources can directly lead to shortages

A hit to reputation

While the effects of physical water risks cannot be overstated, some economic costs can eventually be covered. What’s harder to manage in the aftermath is the potential for a water risk to damage a company’s reputation. As a critical corporate asset that can be difficult to manage and quantify, managing water risks becomes doubly essential to keep a firm’s standing from being sucked into the depths

The AXA report listed the following as major reputational risks involving water:

Negative media coverage and public scrutiny – in the social media age where a single tweet can cause significant changes to a company, the reputational risk of being scrutinized by the media and the public should be a deterrent for companies to tread lightly around water risks. All industries are vulnerable to this, and the report highlights an event in the UK that was covered by the media leading to litigation over raw sewage discharged into public waterways


Changes in consumer loyalty – consumer-facing sectors such as food, beverage, and clothing are the most vulnerable to shifting consumer loyalties. The report notes that in recent years, several notable clothing brands were subject to boycotts due to bad environmental and social practices
Loss of market share due to litigation – the report said that most sectors today are not at significant risk of loss to market share due to litigation. However, it’s in the future companies that are set to pay the price, as they will possibly be more exposed to risks that come with failing to demonstrate good environmental practices


Damage to brand – with ESG set to become a more important aspect for a company’s reputation, poor environmental management can cause significant brand damage that will forever haunt the company. Conversely, good water practices help shape the perception of a good brand value that’s compliant with ESG practices

Affecting future regulations

The risks associated with water extend far beyond that of the physical and the reputational. Regulations involving water use may become more prevalent in the future, resulting in increased operational costs for businesses that are vulnerable to water risks

AXA listed the following as the regulatory water risks to watch out for:

Higher water prices – the food, beverage, and agriculture industry stand to be very affected once regulations start to increase the price of water. Apparel and textiles, utilities, and the manufacturing sectors will also start to feel the heat

Regulation of effluent quantity and quality – a particular risk at hand for pharmaceuticals, regulations changing the amount of discharged water and its quality will result in higher costs for these companies. Restrictions passed by these regulations can also affect operations

Statutory water withdrawal limits – a risk that can be closely attached to water scarcity, poor water security can lead to water withdrawal limits that will severely impact operations and supply chains around the world. The food, beverage, and agriculture industries will be the most affected due to their heavier reliance on the quantity of water


Regulatory uncertainty – poorly implemented or inconsistent water-related regulations can cause issues, especially in sectors such as utilities, apparel and textiles, and manufacturing. Short-term regulations that aim to solve a current water issue may end up hindering companies in the future

AXA XL global sustainability director Suzanne Scatliffe said in a news release that water security requires properly managed and protected water resources. This makes it essential to keep water at the forefront of corporate climate strategies

“AXA XL is committed to helping organisations to improve their understanding of water-related risks and how they impact business operations. This new report aims to support businesses of all sizes to understand different types of sector-specific water risks and catalyse action with a series of recommended solutions and tools,” Scatliffe said.

[waldron] 22/3/2023 06:54

Why is World Water Day celebrated?

The day aims to bring attention to the global water crisis and the need to sustainably manage freshwater resources.


World Water Day is observed on March 22, every year, to highlight the importance of water and inspire efforts to conserve it.

[waldron] 09/6/2022 07:11

‘The inevitable’: People living on the coast could be forced to move due to climate change, UK warns

Published Thu, Jun 9 2022
1:35 AM EDT
Updated 36 Min Ago

Anmar Frangoul

Key Points

“While we can come back safely and build back better after most river flooding, there is no coming back for land that coastal erosion has simply taken away,” James Bevan says.

The chief executive of the U.K.’s Environment Agency admits it’s “far too early to say which communities are likely to need to move.”

Rising sea levels pose a threat to many coastal communities around the world, including island nations in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

[ariane] 07/6/2022 15:09

Climate change causing Britain to shrink with some coastal communities condemned to be swallowed by the sea

Scientists welcome "honest conversation" about the long standing threat of sea level rise driven by climate change, warning coastal protection measures cannot save all communities, even if the Environment Agency could afford them everywhere.


Victoria Seabrook

Climate reporter @SeabrookClimate

Tuesday 7 June 2022 11:57, UK



Why you can trust Sky News

Some British coastal communities will "inevitably" be forced from their homes as climate change eats away at their shores, the head of England's Environment Agency (EA) has warned.

Sir James Bevan, the EA's chief executive, said that climate change means "some of our communities cannot stay where they are".



He told the Flood and Coast Conference in Telford on Tuesday: "While we can come back safely and build back better after most river flooding, there is no coming back for land that coastal erosion has taken away or which a rising sea level has put permanently or frequently under water."

Sir James said that this means the "right answer... will have to be to move communities away from danger rather than try to protect them from the inevitable impacts of a rising sea level".

Although he said it is "far too early to say which communities are likely to move in due course", the Welsh village Fairbourne has already been told it will have to relocate as Gywnedd Council cannot maintain flood defences indefinitely.


Meanwhile the low-lying Fens in eastern England, which account for 7% of England's agricultural production, already lies partly below sea level due to drainage.


Sir James reassured that "no one should be forced from their homes against their will", but that "we need to start the conversation about all this now".



Climate change: 42% chance Earth is locked in to 1.5C warming even if all emissions stop today - study

Jim Hall, professor of climate and environmental risks at Oxford University, welcomed the acknowledgment of Sir James's "hardest of all inconvenient truths".

"Even if the Environment Agency could afford to build coast protection everywhere - which they cannot - the things that many people cherish about the coast, like beaches and sand dunes, will eventually become submerged, unless we start to plan now for how the coastline can adjust to rising sea levels," he said.

He called for "honest conversations" within coastal communities about the future, and a strategic approach to managing the coast sustainably.


One million Britons to be exposed to coastal flooding by 2100

According to the EA's new Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Strategy Roadmap to 2026, one in six people in England are at risk of rain or sea flooding.

And in the UK, one million people are expected to be exposed to annual coastal flooding by the end of this century.

Sir James recalled the flooding in London last summer, which saw public transport closed, hospitals evacuated and people forced from their homes.

"The severity of these flood events appears to be getting worse, which is exactly what the science predicts," he warned.

Other climate scientists welcomed Sir James's comments, warning that sea levels will continue creeping up - in some areas beyond our ability to adapt.

Professor Robert Nicholls, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, called it a "timely official recognition of a major problem that has been predictable for some time but easy to ignore as it only slowly becomes apparent".

Ilan Kelman, professor of disasters and health at University College London, said leaving a community is "devastating" but "nothing new for England and Wales".

Read more: Bangladesh climate migrant megacity crumbling under pressure with warning that same issues will hit UK

A recent report from the IPCC - the United Nations' international group of climate scientists - projected that coastal flood damage in Europe will increase at least ten times by the end of this century, and even more so if we do not change the way people live in those areas.

In response, the EA is aiming to improve assessments and mapping of flood risk, as well as information on investment decisions.

It is also channelling £150m into 25 new innovative projects to tackle the threat of flood and coastal change

[florenceorbis] 31/3/2022 08:09

EMERGINGRISKS

Flood risks to rise dramatically prompting resilience investment call

Swiss Re’s head of UK and Ireland has said despite dire warnings over the scale and frequency of future flood events the peril will remain insurable.

However he added that there needed to be a wholesale programme of investment in greater flood resilience to limit the impact of the peril which the latest report from Swiss Re’s sigma research arm has warned will become more prevalent.

The research, which examined both the prevalence and impact of natural disasters throughout 2021, found that global insured losses from these events sat at $111 billion, making it the fourth costliest year on sigma records.

“This continues the long-term trend of insured losses increasing by an average of 5-7% annually worldwide,” said the report. “While Hurricane Ida was the costliest single natural disaster in 2021, secondary peril events once again accounted for the majority of insured losses from natural catastrophes over the year.

“The flooding in Europe in July, for example, was the costliest natural disaster on record in the region. Despite record-level insured losses from floods, the associated global protection gap remains large.”

“Floods affect nearly a third of the world population, more than any other peril. In 2021 alone, we witnessed more than 50 severe flood events across the world,” said Martin Bertogg, Head of Catastrophe Perils at Swiss Re. “Given the scale of devastation, flood risk deserves the same attention and risk assessment rigour as primary perils such as hurricanes.”

The report added climate change is anticipated to cause more frequent and more extreme weather events. “Growing populations, rapid urban development and the accumulation of economic wealth in disaster-prone areas are contributing to the ever-growing catastrophe losses,” it added. “2021 was another year of intense natural catastrophe activity, including devastating floods in Europe, China, the US, and other parts of the world. Already in the first quarter of 2022, major flooding in eastern Australia has caused widespread devastation and substantial insured losses.”

Sigma records show that flooding is by far the most frequently occurring natural peril. In the past decade, there were approximately three times as many major flood events as tropical cyclones. Floods were also causing more than a third of all fatalities related to natural catastrophes. Economic losses from floods amounted to 23%, the second highest after tropical cyclones.

Yet the Swiss Re Institute said it found that over the past decade, only 5% of severe flood losses were insured in emerging markets and 34% in advanced economies, indicating a large global protection gap. The largest gap in flood protection is in Asia, with only 7% of economic losses being covered by insurance. By contrast, in Europe 34% of flood losses are insured.

In the UK catastrophes in 2021 caused $0.8 billion of economic losses, while total insured losses sat at $0.6 billion.

Between 2011 and 2021, natural catastrophes caused insured losses of $10 billion. Economic losses came in at $13.4 billion during the same period.

While sigma said the UK is one of the countries in Europe most exposed to flood risk the high levels of natural catastrophe insurance coverage, including for flood, means the UK has a relatively small protection gap at 25%. However, climate change “poses a significant threat to the region”. As a result, the UK is expected to become increasingly vulnerable to secondary perils such as storms and flooding.

Jason Richards, Swiss Re CEO UK & Ireland, said: “The UK is getting wetter – and is only going to get more so as the effects of climate change continue to take hold. In fact, The Met Office predicts that a record-breaking UK rainfall event such as in October 2020, which included the wettest day ever, could repeat every 30 years by the end of the current century.

“Given the frequency and scale of flood losses, further action should be considered to extend the reach of risk transfer solutions and increase the financial resilience of households, businesses and communities around the world. Flood Re, which from April 2022 will begin working with insurers to cover the cost for homes to be repaired in a more flood-resilient way after a flood, is an example of how this can happen.

“We believe flood is and will remain insurable. To strengthen resilience against flood risk, (re)insurers should be giving it the same attention as primary perils, such as hurricanes. Key to this will be continuing to embrace the full breadth of available data and new innovations – such as those which simulate for the impact of soil-sealing on ground drainage capacity in urban areas – to better understand the different factors that shape present and future risk scenarios.”

“Growing losses from floods are becoming ever more apparent,” added Jérôme Jean Haegeli, Swiss Re’s group chief economist. “Last year we had another wake-up call. There is a growing urgency for action to increase the resilience of societies worldwide. Together with the public sector, (re)insurers are well equipped to steer development away from high-risk areas and invest in protective measures such as green infrastructure. This keeps assets insurable while also improving the growth outlook.”

Sigma records show that flooding is by far the most frequently occurring natural peril. In the past decade, there were approximately three times as many major flood events as tropical cyclones. Floods were also causing more than a third of all fatalities related to natural catastrophes. Economic losses from floods amounted to 23%, the second highest after tropical cyclones.

[waldron] 08/11/2021 12:21

courtesy of
jeffian
8 Nov '21 - 10:15 - 13089 of 13090
0 5 0
#13083,

"since the 1960s most houses’ surface water drainage has been on a different drainage system to the foul water sewage system".

On the contrary, as a young surveyor (many, many years ago) I was brought up on that premise but it seems to have been completely forgotten and is, indeed, the cause of the problem. Wherever mains (i.e. sewage) drainage is available, I have never seen a builder do anything other than link all rainwater goods into the mains. If they went back to soakaways or letting rainfall find its way to natural waterways, the problem could be solved. The answer certainly isn't to require water authorities to build ever-bigger sewage treatment plants just to cope with exceptional weather events.

While on the subject of water (don't get me started) how on earth can a country like UK talk about 'water shortages' when part of it (mainly North) is permanently inundated even if the SE is becoming drier. One might ask what on earth happened to reservoirs and why there isn't a national water grid. If the Romans could do it, why can't we?!

thanks for that

LUV TO GET you STarted jeff on the AQUA threads,not to mention DAMP AND WET Threads

You would be most welcome

chuckle and cheers

[waldron] 05/10/2021 23:08

FRANCE24


Five billion could struggle to access water in 2050: UN

Issued on: 05/10/2021 - 16:30


2 min


Geneva (AFP)

More than five billion people could have difficulty accessing water in 2050, the United Nations warned Tuesday, urging leaders to seize the initiative at the COP26 summit.

Already in 2018, 3.6 billion people had inadequate access to water for at least one month per year, said a new report from the UN's World Meteorological Organization.

"We need to wake up to the looming water crisis," said WMO chief Petteri Taalas.
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"The State of Climate Services 2021: Water" report comes just weeks before COP26 -- the UN Climate Change Conference being held in Glasgow from October 31 to November 12.

The WMO stressed that over the last 20 years, the levels of water stored on land -- on the surface, in the subsurface, in snow and ice -- had dropped at a rate of one centimetre per year.

The biggest losses are in Antarctica and Greenland, but many highly-populated lower latitude locations are experiencing significant water losses in areas that traditionally provide water supply, said the WMO.

The agency said there were major ramifications for water security, as only 0.5 percent of water on Earth is useable and available fresh water.

"Increasing temperatures are resulting in global and regional precipitation changes, leading to shifts in rainfall patterns and agricultural seasons, with a major impact on food security and human health and well-being," said Taalas.

- 'We cannot wait' -

Meanwhile water-related hazards have increased in frequency over the past 20 years.

Since 2000, flood-related disasters have risen by 134 percent compared with the previous two decades.

"We have seven percent more humidity in the atmosphere because of the current warming and that's also contributing to the flooding," Taalas told a press conference.

Most of the flood-related deaths and economic losses were recorded in Asia, where river flood warning systems require strengthening, said the WMO.

At the same time, there has been around a 30 percent increase in the amount and duration of drought events since 2000, with Africa the worst-affected continent.

Taalas urged countries at COP26 to raise their game.

He said most world leaders were talking about climate change as a major risk to the welfare of mankind, but their actions were not matching their words.

"We cannot wait for decades to start acting," he said.

"That's also a message for countries like China which has said that they would like to become carbon neutral by 2060 but they don't have a concrete plan for the coming decade."

He said the top priority at COP26 was stepping up ambition levels in climate mitigation, but more work was also needed on climate adaptations, as the negative trend in weather patterns will continue for the coming decades -- and the coming centuries when it comes to the melting of glaciers and sea levels rising.

[grupo guitarlumber] 14/7/2021 14:00

Moon wobble to bring surge in coastal flooding in 2030s, NASA study predicts

By Rachel Trent, CNN

Updated 2208 GMT (0608 HKT) July 13, 2021


(CNN)Coastal communities in the United States, be forewarned. A "dramatic" surge in high-tide floods is just over a decade away in the US, according to NASA.

The rapid increase will start in the mid-2030s, when a lunar cycle will amplify rising sea levels caused by the climate crisis, found a new study led by the members of the NASA Sea Level Change Science Team from the University of Hawaii.

Only far northern coastlines, such as Alaska's, will get at least another decade's respite because long-term geological processes are leading to these land areas rising.

The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, is the first to take into account all known oceanic and astronomical causes for floods, the agency said in a news release.

High-tide floods involve less water than storm surges from a hurricane, but the study's lead author warns that doesn't mean they are a less significant problem overall. "It's the accumulated effect over time that will have an impact," said Phil Thompson, an assistant professor at the University of Hawaii's department of oceanography, in a news statement.

"If it floods 10 or 15 times a month, a business can't keep operating with its parking lot under water. People lose their jobs because they can't get to work. Seeping cesspools become a public health issue."

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported over 600 high-tide floods in 2019. This new study projects these floods will sometimes occur in clusters lasting a month or longer in the 2030s, depending on the positions of the moon, Earth, and sun. Some cities may see floods every day or two.

Lunar cycle

The reason for this expected surge is tied to the moon's 18.6-year cycle.

Right now, it's in the half that amplifies tides -- meaning high tides get higher and low tides get lower. Along most US coastlines, current sea levels have not risen so much that high tides regularly top flooding thresholds.

But that won't be the case next time around, which is in the mid-2030s.

That's because of how a wobble in the moon's orbit combines with rising sea levels. The wobble isn't new -- it was first reported in 1728. But how this movement affects the moon's gravitational pull, the main cause of the Earth's tides, will spark these new flooding concerns when it combines with rising sea levels.

Sign up for CNN's Wonder Theory science newsletter. Explore the universe with news on fascinating discoveries, scientific advancements and more.

"Global sea level rise will have been at work for another decade. The higher seas, amplified by the lunar cycle, will cause a leap in flood numbers on almost all U.S. mainland coastlines, Hawaii, and Guam," a NASA news release stated.

[waldron] 01/11/2020 12:14

THE SCOTSMAN

A message to Scotland from Malawi ahead of COP26

I’m told that in Scotland it rains a lot. Here in Malawi, where I’m from, we can spend long, hard months praying for rain that never comes. When it does, the consequences can be devastating, as we discovered to our peril 18 months ago when Malawi was devastated by flooding associated with Cyclone Idai.

By Linga Mihowa

Sunday, 1st November 2020, 7:00 am

.

Our climate is unquestionably changing.

As Oxfam’s Country Director in Malawi, I see the evidence every day.

Malawi may feel very far away from Scotland but we’re not so different, you and I. We may well have similar hopes, dreams and fears. I suspect that we all want to earn a decent living, to live a happy life, and want our children to have a safe future.

Except in Malawi, those hopes are starting to feel out of reach; climate change is threatening our homes, our futures, even our lives.

While made headlines around the globe, it was just one in a cycle of increasingly frequent and severe weather events to have hit the region in recent years. And, with every new shock, people’s capacity to recover diminishes.

Floods, storms, devastating droughts – every day, the impacts of climate breakdown are being felt; but they’re not being felt equally. The richest people plunder the planet while people living in poverty, who did the least to cause the crisis, suffer the most.

This can and must change and Scotland has a chance to be at the forefront of this change.

In exactly a year’s time, landmark global climate talks – called COP26 – will be happening in Glasgow. We know what action is needed: faster, fairer emissions cuts now, not vague vows for the future; proper support for the people hit hardest by climate breakdown and a radically different economic system that protects people and planet.

As President of COP26, the UK Government has a major role but, as home to the host city of COP26, Scotland has a unique chance to show global leadership.

Right now, poor communities simply aren’t getting enough help to adapt, and there is no dedicated fund to help countries like Malawi to recover from the loss and damage caused by climate-fuelled disasters. It’s thought that Cyclone Idai alone caused an estimated $220.2 million of loss and damage in Malawi. Without help; how are we ever expected to recover?

The Scottish Government must redouble its efforts; firstly, by boosting its own Climate Justice Fund to £10 million per year and secondly, by encouraging other nations to increase their financial commitments.

I hope First Minister Nicola Sturgeon reads this, because she – and the Scottish Government – have a responsibility to use the approaching global talks to show the world that climate change is not just a matter of science, technology or economics. It is a matter of justice. We need her to be heard.

Change is possible. Movements of ordinary people can and do change history. The abolishment of slavery. Women’s right to vote. Liberation from apartheid. Now people are uniting to rise again, to tackle the biggest challenge humanity has ever faced; the global climate crisis. Every one of us has a part to play, from Malawi to Scotland, and we must act now.

Linga Mihowa is Oxfam's Country Director in Malawi

[waldron] 27/10/2020 18:34

THE GUARDIAN


Climate change
'Sleeping giant' Arctic methane deposits starting to release, scientists find

Exclusive: expedition discovers new source of greenhouse gas off East Siberian coast has been triggered

Jonathan Watts Global environment editor
@jonathanwatts

Tue 27 Oct 2020 15.40 GMT
Last modified on Tue 27 Oct 2020 16.11 GMT

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Researchers worry that the Laptev Sea findings may signal a new climate feedback loop has been triggered.
Researchers worry that the Laptev Sea findings may signal a new climate feedback loop has been triggered. Photograph: Markus Rex/Alfred-Wegener-Institut

Scientists have found evidence that frozen methane deposits in the Arctic Ocean – known as the “sleeping giants of the carbon cycle” – have started to be released over a large area of the continental slope off the East Siberian coast, the Guardian can reveal.

High levels of the potent greenhouse gas have been detected down to a depth of 350 metres in the Laptev Sea near Russia, prompting concern among researchers that a new climate feedback loop may have been triggered that could accelerate the pace of global heating.

The slope sediments in the Arctic contain a huge quantity of frozen methane and other gases – known as hydrates. Methane has a warming effect 80 times stronger than carbon dioxide over 20 years. The United States Geological Survey has previously listed Arctic hydrate destabilisation as one of four most serious scenarios for abrupt climate change.

The international team onboard the Russian research ship R/V Akademik Keldysh said most of the bubbles were currently dissolving in the water but methane levels at the surface were four to eight times what would normally be expected and this was venting into the atmosphere.

“At this moment, there is unlikely to be any major impact on global warming, but the point is that this process has now been triggered. This East Siberian slope methane hydrate system has been perturbed and the process will be ongoing,” said the Swedish scientist Örjan Gustafsson, of Stockholm University, in a satellite call from the vessel.


The scientists – who are part of a multi-year International Shelf Study Expedition – stressed their findings were preliminary. The scale of methane releases will not be confirmed until they return, analyse the data and have their studies published in a peer-reviewed journal.

But the discovery of potentially destabilised slope frozen methane raises concerns that a new tipping point has been reached that could increase the speed of global heating.

The Arctic is considered ground zero in the debate about the vulnerability of frozen methane deposits in the ocean.

With the Arctic temperature now rising more than twice as fast as the global average, the question of when – or even whether – they will be released into the atmosphere has been a matter of considerable uncertainty in climate computer models.

The 60-member team on the Akademik Keldysh believe they are the first to observationally confirm the methane release is already under way across a wide area of the slope about 600km offshore.
Scientists at work on the test cruise Electra 1, prior to the Akademik Keldysh expedition.


At six monitoring points over a slope area 150km in length and 10km wide, they saw clouds of bubbles released from sediment.

At one location on the Laptev Sea slope at a depth of about 300 metres they found methane concentrations of up to 1,600 nanomoles per litre, which is 400 times higher than would be expected if the sea and the atmosphere were in equilibrium.

Igor Semiletov, of the Russian Academy of Sciences, who is the chief scientist onboard, said the discharges were “significantly larger” than anything found before. “The discovery of actively releasing shelf slope hydrates is very important and unknown until now,” he said. “This is a new page. Potentially they can have serious climate consequences, but we need more study before we can confirm that.”

The most likely cause of the instability is an intrusion of warm Atlantic currents into the east Arctic. This “Atlantification” is driven by human-induced climate disruption.

The end of the Arctic as we know it


The latest discovery potentially marks the third source of methane emissions from the region. Semiletov, who has been studying this area for two decades, has previously reported the gas is being released from the shelf of the Arctic – the biggest of any sea.

For the second year in a row, his team have found crater-like pockmarks in the shallower parts of the Laptev Sea and East Siberian Sea that are discharging bubble jets of methane, which is reaching the sea surface at levels tens to hundreds of times higher than normal. This is similar to the craters and sinkholes reported from inland Siberian tundra earlier this autumn.

Temperatures in Siberia were 5C higher than average from January to June this year, an anomaly that was made at least 600 times more likely by human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide and methane. Last winter’s sea ice melted unusually early. This winter’s freeze has yet to begin, already a later start than at any time on record.

[sarkasm] 26/10/2020 12:03

Flood model shows 1.2m properties at risk by 2050
By Deborah Ritchie 2020-10-26

Flooding could impact more than a 1.2 million properties across Great Britain in the next 30 years, with potential insurance liabilities reaching £122bn. A further 1.9m properties are predicted to be newly at risk of subsidence by 2050, a development which is thought might double insurance claims.

These are among the findings of analysis conducted by Gamma Location Intelligence, whose underwriting risk assessment platform Perilfinder uses data from Ambiental Risk′s FloodFutures model, among other datasets.

It estimates that 1,799,271 residential and commercial addresses are currently at risk from flooding in Great Britain. By 2050, it predicts that some 3,066,318 properties will be at risk of flooding in the case of the high emissions scenario, based on data from UK Climate Predictions (including UKCP09), and a 2˚C global temperature rise.

The south coast -- from Portsmouth to Worthing -- sees a particularly significant increase in the proportion of properties at risk. The east coast and parts of London not protected by the Thames Tidal Barrier also feature in the set of areas seeing the largest increase. Conwy in Wales is the only area not in England among those set to be most impacted.
The analysis also reveals the potential impact in terms of insurance pay outs should the worst-case flood increase scenario occur.

Based on the average pay-outs on insurance flood claims in February 2020 following storms Ciara and Dennis, it says there is a potential insurance liability of £122bn.

Senior spatial data scientist at Gamma Location Intelligence, Richard Cantwell, said: “Global warming is already having an impact on our daily lives, but the effects of it will become far more tangible and extreme in the years to come. And Great Britain could be particularly affected.

“Data indicates that summers in the UK have gotten wetter and storms are becoming more common -- February just past was the wettest February in Britain since records began due to the arrival of three named storms during the month -- Ciara, Dennis and Jorge. The reality is that global temperatures are continuing to rise, and flooding is becoming more common place. If expected trends continue, a large number of properties will be newly impacted."

[grupo] 25/10/2020 10:08

Joe Biden calls climate change the ‘number one issue facing humanity’
Published Sat, Oct 24 20201:34 PM EDTUpdated Sat, Oct 24 20201:45 PM EDT
Emma Newburger
@emma_newburger
Key Points

Joe Biden declared climate change the “number one issue facing humanity” and vowed a national transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy that he says will create millions of new jobs.
Biden has a $2 trillion plan that puts the U.S. on a path to zero carbon pollution from the electricity sector by 2035 and net-zero emissions by 2050.
Scientists say that Biden’s transition plan is required to avoid the most catastrophic consequences of climate change.
Climate change has fueled record-setting wildfires in the U.S. West and one of the most active Atlantic hurricane seasons this year.

[grupo guitarlumber] 11/10/2020 10:44

BUSINESINSIDER.IN

Antarctic ice may melt 20 years sooner than estimated — global sea levels likely to rise by an additional three inches by 2100

BI India Bureau
Oct 11, 2020, 11:24 IST


Global sea levels may rise by 2.7 to 4.3 inches by 2100, according to a new study published in Climate Dynamics.

Scientists claim that accounting for internal climate variability displaces conventional model estimates that only use a mean temperature.

As a result, simulations may have underestimated the retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet by up to 20 years.

The fact that the polar ice sheets are melting as the planet gets warmers is no secret. However, scientists predict that the effects may be much worse than initially estimated.

In addition to the overall effects of climate change, ice cover will also be affected by internal climate variability, which conventional prediction models don’t consider.

Accounting for climate variability, the global sea level may rise by another 2.7 to 4.3 inches by 2100, according to a new study.

Factor Rise in sea level
With climate variability 13.3 to 19.2 inches
Without climate variability 10.6 to 14.9 inches


The study found that model simulation that did not include the effects of internal climate variability significantly delayed the ice sheet's retreat by up to 20 years and underestimated future sea-level rise.


It may not seem like much, but further increase in sea levels will only add to the destruction displayed by natural calamities.



"Every bit adds on to the storm surge, which we expect to see during hurricanes and other severe weather events, and the results can be devastating," said Chris Forest, co-author of the paper published in Climate Dynamics.

What is climate variability?

Most research around climate change uses a mean temperature by averaging the results of climate models. The process smoothens the peaks caused by climate variability and reduces the average number of days above temperature thresholds. This creates a bias.


"If we're just running with average conditions, we're not seeing these extremes (climate variability) happening on yearly or decadal timescales," explained Forest.

When one includes variability, the results accommodate for more warm days and more sunshine. On those days, the ice will melt further, with the temperatures being above the mean threshold.

The scientists also found that while atmospheric variations had a more considerable and more immediate impact on the ice sheet — ocean variability was also a significant factor.

"It's important to better understand these processes contributing to the additional ice loss because the ice sheets are melting much faster than we expected," said Forest.

[waldron] 27/9/2020 10:59

SOUNDS LIKE A GLASS HALF EMPTY AND PERHAPS DANGEROUS TO THE ENVIROMENT

[ariane] 10/9/2020 12:28

Record flooding hammers the African Sahel, the latest in a series of shocks

Published Thu, Sep 10 20206:50 AM EDTUpdated 11 Min Ago

Elliot Smith
@ElliotSmithCNBC

Key Points

On September 7, Senegal recorded 124 millimeters of rain over the course of a seven-hour downpour. This is the same amount that would usually be expected across the entire rainy season running from July to September.

In Nigeria, particularly the northwestern Kebbi State, flooding has damaged more than 500,000 hectares of farm produce amounting to around 5 billion naira ($13 million), according to NKC African Economics.

Sudan imposed a three-month state of emergency on September 4, with rains having destroyed around 100,000 houses and killed more than 100 people.
In South Sudan, more than 100 people have died and an estimated 5,000 have been displaced due to overflowing of the White Nile, according to the country’s state news agency, while floods have also wreaked havoc on parts of Ghana, Burkina Faso and Mali.

[grupo] 01/8/2020 08:54

Coastal flooding will endanger millions
Emily Beament
| 31st July 2020

North-west Europe, including the UK, is among the hotspots facing a rising risk of flooding, along with places such as India and the Bay of Bengal, and south east and east Asia.

Coastal flooding could become more frequent and endanger millions more people around the world by the end of the century, a study warns.

The analysis examines the impact of greenhouse gas emissions continuing at high levels without strong action to curb them, causing global warming that melts ice, raises sea levels and causes more storms.

It warns north-west Europe, including the UK, is among the hotspots facing a rising risk of flooding, along with places such as India and the Bay of Bengal, and south east and east Asia.

Glaciers

Without coastal defences, the amount of land globally at risk of flooding will increase by 48 percent by 2100, making an extra 250,000 square kilometres (97,000 square miles) vulnerable around the world's coasts.

The number of people at risk from coastal floods would increase by 77 million to 225 million by 2100 under the projections, while as much as £11 trillion worth of infrastructure would be under threat - around 20 percent of global GDP.

The analysis, which looks at tidal variations, storm surges and sea level rises, does not take into account coastal flood defences such as sea walls which already provide significant protection in places such as the UK.

But the researchers, publishing their findings in the journal Scientific Reports, said it highlights the scale of action needed to offset the risks.

Ebru Kirezci, the lead author, from the University of Melbourne, Australia, said: "A warming climate is driving sea level rise because water expands as it warms, and glaciers are melting.

Defences

"Climate change is also increasing the frequency of extreme seas, which will further increase the risk of flooding.

"What the data and our model is saying is that compared with now, what we see as a 1-in-100-year extreme flood event will be 10 times more frequent because of climate change."

Professor Robert Nicholls, the lead UK author and director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia, said: "This analysis shows the urgency of action to address sea level rise via both climate mitigation to reduce the rise and adaptation such as better coastal defences, as some of the rise is unavoidable."

Professor Ian Young, a co-author, from the University of Melbourne, said while north-west Europe is particularly exposed to rising flood risk, the study shows other major risk areas in every continent.

"This data should act as a wake-up call to inform policy at global and local government levels so that more flood defences can be built to safeguard coastal life and infrastructure," he said.

This Author

Emily Beament is the PA environment correspondent.

[the grumpy old men] 08/3/2020 11:45

BBC

Floods: Budget will double spending on defences, says Treasury

7 March 2020

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Budget 2020

Image copyright PA Media

Funding for flood defences in England is expected to be doubled to £5.2bn over five years in the forthcoming Budget, the Treasury has said.

The money, due to be announced on March 11, will help to build 2,000 new flood and coastal defence schemes and protect 336,000 properties in the country.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak said communities had been "hit hard" in recent floods.

The funding - double the £2.6bn budgeted between 2015 and 2021 - is due to be available from April 2021.

This year was the wettest February in the UK since records began in 1862, with more than three times the average rainfall - as three successive storms left rivers bursting their banks and communities flooded.

In some of the worst-hit areas in the Midlands, Wales and south Yorkshire, homes and businesses flooded three times in a matter of weeks.

Flood defences get 1% of infrastructure spending
Climate woes grow amid wettest February on record
Storm payouts average out at £32,000 per household

Prime Minister Boris Johnson faced criticism from Labour for going "Awol" during the emergency and for failing to budget enough for flood defences.

But the Treasury said this spending commitment now puts the government "on track" to meet the investment recommended by the National Infrastructure Commission.

The government's Infrastructure and Projects Authority previously projected that it would spent £4.7bn on flood defences up to 2026, but the funding had not been confirmed.

MPs in northern England called for flood defence spending to be reallocated, as the plans showed that a third of the money was expected to be spend in London and the South East of England.

But the Treasury said every region would benefit from the investment and the North East and North West of England would receive the highest level of funding per property at risk of flooding.

Mr Sunak said: "Communities up and down Britain have been hit hard by the floods this winter, so it is right that we invest to protect towns, families, and homes across the UK."

The chancellor is also due to announced a £120m fund to repair flood defences that were damaged in the recent storms, bringing at least 300 schemes back to full operation, the Treasury said.