Hardy Underwriting Share Discussion Threads

[1nf3rn0] 06/4/2012 14:25

topvest, I sold too. Felt it better to have the cash in the bank and figured there may my a tiny weeny chance that the offer could fall thorugh due to some unforseen circumstances. As Boros10 points out, for a small percentage difference may as well have the cash now ready to reinvest.

[boros10] 05/4/2012 18:07

I've been selling at 2.765p - so losing 3.5p a share plus £12.75 in dealing costs (so I have lost 1.265% or 3.8% annualised if the deal goes through in 3 months).

As you suggest the pull back in the market offers some interesting opportunities so I am happier with the cash.

[topvest] 05/4/2012 12:57

Looks like it will be 3/4 months until we get the cash here given the approvals required. Still inclined to wait, rather than to lose out on 2% or so of the offer, but might change my mind if the market crashes again, and there is better value around. What are other doing?

[1nf3rn0] 21/3/2012 18:25

I'm in Beazley too. A win-win I figured. And it's probably put Beazley back in the shop window.

[edmundshaw] 21/3/2012 17:23

well done folks. I left this one alone, but no hard feelings.

At least the Beazley share price is now up on the news they are NOT taking out HDU! :-)

[1nf3rn0] 21/3/2012 17:10

I am pleased with this outcome :)

[a0148009] 21/3/2012 15:17

280p is a very full price considering catastrophe book losses and NTAV, I am very satisfied with this.
Skyracer hope you took a few on board when we last talked on 1st March.

I doubt if anyone will top this price and seems to me they have got the best deal, will
hang on a week or so just in case the rumour of a counter bid runs.

AO

[topvest] 21/3/2012 14:51

Great news - well this was a quality company. That is reflected in the price. Very pleased with this outcome!

[boros10] 21/3/2012 14:48

A great offer well ahead of TNAV for 2011 and forecast TNAV of 218p for 2012.

Having bought in at around 205p in the hope of a bid I am naturally delighted.

[effortless cool] 21/3/2012 14:42

That's a nice outcome for holders and for staff. The price actions tells us that they kept it commendably tight, as well.

[chillwill] 21/3/2012 14:40

I can't see that being rejected to be honest.

Now which daily paper wants to start the counter bid rumours?

[stephanie_m] 21/3/2012 14:27

Fair offer

s

[panachegrp] 01/3/2012 15:32

at 1.2/1.3 x NTAV, this should be taken out at 220 - 240. Worth a punt at 190P?? What do u think?

[a0148009] 01/3/2012 14:05

Just managed to squeeze 5k out of the market at 190, market maker has not put it on the screen yet, unless there are other problems lurking in the woodwork can't see it going for less than this, the thrill is getting it right rather than the few bob to made.

AO

[skyracer] 01/3/2012 13:47

Not a name AO, but have a consultant background, and took an interest in Barbara Merry's style over the years of holding Hardy. She seems a clever girl and I hope she pops up again after a handover period with the new owners. She needs to gather the right team around her.

[a0148009] 01/3/2012 13:33

Your memory serves you well, I was feeling a bit clever for while until the good years came in the naughties.
It does appear that they are too small and do not wish to go it alone any longer or sell off some of the book.Any ideas of the possible outcome.

AO

[effortless cool] 01/3/2012 13:03

You may have missed some excellent returns over the last decade but, before that, you missed some bloody awful returns on 1999 - 2001 so, overall, I think you can view it as a well-timed retirement!

[a0148009] 01/3/2012 12:48

Sad indeed, I can remember when it was easier get an invitation to a Garden Party at the Palace than get an underwriting line on Hardy.
I still think there are some directors and underwriters that would prefer their independence, often a fault of former directors of private companies to overvalue their worth when they go public. Skyracer you seem informed were you a name on Lloyds, I was for 20 years 1978 - 1998 and did well, but resigned in 1998, and missed some excellent returns over that last decade, at the time I retired very early to manager the family money full time, and did not think it appropriate to remain an underwriting name.

AO

[skyracer] 01/3/2012 10:31

A sad end. I liked Barbara Merry and Hardy. However it is a good illustration of what can happen if a company is too operationally focused and lacks effective strategic thinking, and indeed is not flexible enough to modify their strategy according to changing circumstances. Hardy's timescale is long and they have not exploited this, eg missing out on the biggest bull market in bonds in living history. You cant lead a company based on statistics and analysis, just as in the same way you cant be a successful investor just based on these things because you end up underperforming the indices and are always vulnerable to unexpected shocks. Everyone is allowed to make mistakes but the market is ruthless in punishing those that have made "below the waterline" mistakes. A low price sellout now seems inevitable (and sensible). Barbara, you are too good not to be a CEO, but next time find an ally in a pragmatic & intuitive strategic thinker. One who would scream at you to sell at 350p, because you can always live to fight another day.

[a0148009] 01/3/2012 08:23

They will have conservatively reserved for catastrophe losses in this account.
NAV 183.5p with a 20 to 30 per cent premium take out price over NAV would be 220p - 230p not expensive for a syndicate of this quality.

AO

[1nf3rn0] 08/2/2012 16:09

Anyone who took a punt as mentioned in post #62 with a tight stop loss could now raise their stop to lock in current gains and be in a no lose situation. It's all about the takeover. If that doesn't happen I expect it to fall back fairly sharply. Given the rise though it looks like a deal may be fairly close...

[edmundshaw] 08/2/2012 13:08

Hm. Interesting situation. But given the scale of losses and potential losses in the last 2 years, I shall leave this one to the experts...

[1nf3rn0] 27/1/2012 09:34

A punt with a tight stop-loss. If a takeover goes ahead it should rise, if it falls through then I expect to share price to drop. But I think the potential rise outweighs the potential fall so the odds look decent.

[harmonics] 27/1/2012 07:15

Mmm...worth a punt I think?