Yell Group Share Discussion Threads

[captain hindsight] 20/1/2016 11:25

you fellahs do realise that pandora is a lunatic, just out from his last "treatment"?

[professor pettigrew] 17/1/2016 17:47

Yup, I saw that pandora1. Actually thought that wasn't just loopy, but rather amusing. Mind, behind that lies a deep dark exterior who will do anything to get their own way.

That's why I think they will cut interest rates sooner rather than later.

All helps to keep the pot boiling though!

[pandora1] 17/1/2016 17:42

The Chinese regime is nearly as loopy as North Korea. Viz. their statements after the Taiwan election. A luxury that their citizens cannot enjoy.

[professor pettigrew] 17/1/2016 16:41

smurfy - watch out for a Chinese rate cut soon.

[essentialinvestor] 17/1/2016 15:51

smurfy, I think China and crude are easy narratives to pin everything on atm,
that is not to underestimate their significance, but this looks wider imv.

And would agree China can unleash huge extra measures is they wish.

They need a weaker currency which they will also get.

Years of double digit wage growth in China and the Yuan appreciating against multiple
currencies has eroded their competitiveness so it's no surprise.
Some of this was by design to help the country transition to a more consumption
driven model.

[smurfy2001] 17/1/2016 15:47

PP,

4. China will print money.

I think the immediate concern right now is China isn't it?

It's the only way to reverse the current commodities down trend.

[essentialinvestor] 17/1/2016 15:46

Yes agree on infrastructure, that is where this is ultimately going,
it's one of the reasons I hold some RIO.
And not recommending to pile in to mining, you need to be exceptionally
careful in that sector currently.

[professor pettigrew] 17/1/2016 15:44

Good point Essential, but CB's and governments can between them, engender a certain amount of growth.

Looks to me as though infrastructure will be the next tool used. That will give commodities a timely boost in my view.

[essentialinvestor] 17/1/2016 15:38

It depends how you define put in this context.
If you mean will CB ultimately be forced in to more aggressive action,
additional measures, then yes.

However that will not necessarily backstop equity markets.
Markets stayed strong to a large degree because of corporate earnings.

If the business cycle is rolling over with earnings that equals to a new
bear market, regardless of any CB action.

CB's cannot abolish the business cycle, they can alter it as has been shown,
ultimately the cycle reasserts itself which may now be in the process
of happening.

Nothing can save equities when earnings sharply decline, the commodity space is
a perfect example of that.

[professor pettigrew] 17/1/2016 15:21

Agreed Pandora1. Whilst I think we are teetering on the brink of recession, as I said in the header, I think today's lifting of Iranian sanctions is a very bullish sign. Around $100bn of Iranian assets will be unfrozen, leaving a large amount of extra cash to be spent thereby giving a lift to world trade.

The ordering of 114 jets already from Airbus will have a knock on impact in raising some commodity prices.

While the very short-term effect is a fall in Middle East markets and probably a drop in oil tomorrow to around the $27 mark, there is no doubt that welcoming Iran back into the fold can only boost trade throughout the world.

[pandora1] 16/1/2016 12:08

Thankyou Professor for your magnanimity.

Arlington, yes, the real, necessary pain was just postponed.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 15/1/2016 23:28

The medicine of the late noughties was never taken. The world economy should have contracted massively in order that the faux-growth be amputated and real growth be allowed to lead the recovery.

Popular short-term political decisions were made to prop-up bad banks instead of rightly collapsing a whole swathe of them. Money was simply printed to give the appearance of recovery along with zero interest rates to inflate assets.

Healthy economies need periods of recession, sometimes a real slump in order to rebalance and grow properly. The fools in control preferred votes instead of doing what was right.

The meddling is coming to an end, let the treatment begin.

[professor pettigrew] 15/1/2016 20:24

The problem is, that in the last 20 years the world has quietly let China achieve the dominance they have now. Not a bad thing from a Chinese perspective, but it appears that the world economy is now too reliant on any growth coming from China.

They are now so powerful that if they went into recession, the turmoil on markets would make this year look like a tea party.

[professor pettigrew] 15/1/2016 19:48

Do you know, Pandora1 - I agree with every word you say!

It's PP though if you don't mind.

My only worry is the US elections. If they are mad enough to vote for Trump (and it looks as though he will get the nomination although not written in stone), it could turn out to be a complete disaster. As for the Chinese, again I agree with every word you have written.

The natives could get quite restless.

[pandora1] 15/1/2016 17:59

Well, Smelgy, perhaps we can find some common ground to have an adult discussion about macro-economics.
All that has happened with the oil price collapse is a return to a free market in crude after the OPEC cartel's distortion since the early 1970's.
Of course it is oversold, and of course there may well be a global recession caused by indebtedness. But the cheap oil must be overall a positive for the global economy. So Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, et al will suffer. Hooray! All basket cases, that need punishment. Fracking, and technology making transport more and more parsimonious in their use of hydrocarbon fuels, and the necessary and increasingly competitive renewable energy sources, means a permanent reduction in demand for oil from unstable parts of the world.
Imagine the Middle-East returning to the status quo ante.
Of course, Putin is a danger, but hopefully the Russian people themselves will dispense with him when he fails to continue to deliver the prosperity that has temporarily fallen into his lap.
The Chinese, who have likely been exaggerating their economic growth rates for decades, will find that their burgeoning middle-class, will not put up with an authoritarian corrupt government for very much longer.
As long as the red-necks across the pond don't go for Trump, there is a lot of hope for the future of civilisation.

[professor pettigrew] 15/1/2016 16:56

OK - so hands up all those who think the current market turmoil is just a correction?

Well, it's not. It's deep seated and deep rooted, and the global economy is teetering once again on the brink of recession. A dig deep into the recent US employment figures show that the bulk of jobs are part-time, as over here, not proper long lasting wealth-creating jobs.

The answer? Yellen and the Fed, Carney and the BOE, Draghi and the ECB et al are going to have pull some more rabbits out of the hat.

What will they do?

I think they will:-

1. Cut rates to negative with Yellen backtracking on the recent 25 basis point rise.

2. Draghi will announce an increase in QE in Europe, Japan will continue to print money.

3. And, the BIG policy move. Yellen and the Fed will be forced into QE6.

More money printing, and negative rates are the last gasp of the financial powers, and the last desperate measure to stop a complete world slump.

When it happens though, watch stock markets soar.

Any comment, bull or bear, welcome.

[spob] 26/7/2013 03:43

Hope someone listened to me........



Hibu: farewell to the business formerly known as Yell

A debt-for-equity swap will eradicate current shareholders and leave creditors as the new owners of the Yellow Pages publisher

[knigel] 21/4/2013 10:11

Wrong thread? HIBU threads are available!

[stud-muffin] 21/4/2013 10:06

johann

Large drop - like .3p ?

Its almost zero now - the upside (if there is one?) is way higher than the down.

Its either bust or worth about 15p to current shareholders - frankly I reckon bust but thats not the point, to gamblers this is truly the 250-1 outsider and from what I can see the news will arrive in a manner that will not let you hedge.

You have to place your bet and await the outcome.

[johannsen] 15/2/2013 10:10

This is a HUGE sell in my opinion.