Bh Macro Share Discussion Threads

[edwardt] 17/4/2024 16:52

If nav gets to 4.20 , I think 3.80 share price is on the cards, hence descent asymmetry from here

[edwardt] 12/4/2024 08:11

Added a few at these levels. Will only take a few percent uplift in nav for the share price to motor

[edwardt] 10/4/2024 18:25

Yes and clearly bonkers . That equates to a 25% return if they simply give us back nav...

[mwj1959] 09/4/2024 13:44

Near 20% NAV discount now...a reflection of poor performance?

[spooky] 26/3/2024 16:02

BH might as well give up and hand over the assets to PSH. Much better returns. They could continue to collect their management fees and go to the beach. Might need to keep it a secret though.

[affemoose] 11/3/2024 12:42

I'm out.

Good luck.

[affemoose] 11/3/2024 12:36

Share price is back at May 2020 levels.

They've been well paid for this though, so that's OK. :-/

[apollocreed1] 08/3/2024 12:55

These guys only know how to lose money. Totally incompetent and charge massive fees for their incompetence.

[affemoose] 01/3/2024 11:22

latest NAV was 400p, trading at 352.

I genuinely worry here - HL tells me Discount to Nav is at -12%

Why?

It's so opaque, drives me nuts.

[eh9] 24/1/2024 08:32

I have uk fixed income oeics and these rose in value despite the 4% inflation surprise as the underlying direction in rates is intact

[jt35] 24/1/2024 08:15

At a guess I think they may have positions in U.K. fixed income have been wrong footed by the latest inflation data that caused yields to reverse recent declines.

[eh9] 24/1/2024 07:53

How can the nav be plus 0.77% as of 12 Jan but negative 1.27% as of 19 Jan.

[affemoose] 18/1/2024 10:29

A couple of good articles. MasterInvestor states that Investec would be selling down a large position and the other states that they are bullish on it. I'll post the Citywire text below in case you cant login.

hxxps://masterinvestor.co.uk/funds-and-investment-trusts/specialist-trust-recommendations-for-2024/


hxxps://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/investec-buy-bh-macro-ahead-of-choppy-waters/a2434214

edge fund BH Macro (BHMG) is a ‘unique’ portfolio that does well in challenging market environments, according to Investec analysts, who highlighted the shares on a 13% discount as a bargain buy.

In a note, analysts Alan Brierley and Ben Newell said BH Macro has prided itself on having an ‘inverse correlation with risk assets’ since launch in 2007 and this has been ‘most pronounced during the times of peak distress’.

During the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, the FTSE All Share fell 45.6% and the MSCI All Country World index dropped 54.1%, but BH Macro’s net asset value (NAV) rose 43.9%. More recently, in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and inflation worries began, the hedge fund delivered a NAV return of 20.8%, while the FTSE dropped 10.5% and the MSCI ACWI was down 22.1%.

Brierley and Newell said with low NAV volatility and minimal correlation to equities and bonds the hedge fund has a ‘natural role to play in improving portfolio diversification̵7;.


Now is also a good time to buy the £1.6bn flagship Brevan Howard hedge fund as it is sitting on a double-digit discount. The sterling share class is trading at a 12% discount to the NAV of 407p, while the US dollar share class (BHMU) is doing slightly better at a 10% discount.

As recently as September 2022, shares were trading at 22% premium but the fund had a difficult 2023 when it was hit by a ‘perfect storm’ of performance challenges, ‘unrealised fears’ that Rathbones and Investec would become forced sellers, a broad deterioration in sentiment towards the industry, and a greater appetite for risk assets.

The fund’s net asset value fell 7.1% between March and May last year after its key interest rate trade went wrong as markets priced in cuts in US interest rates following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and subsequent contagion risk. While they recovered some of the losses in the latter half of the year, the NAV was still 2.6% lower over one year.


The share price had a worse time, with the sterling share class down 23% and the US share class (BHMU) down 21.5% over the 12-month period.

The derating followed a bumper £315m share issue in February which saw the company capitalise on its strong market-bucking performance in 2022 when it returned nearly 22% to shareholders.

Nervousness around the merger of wealth managers Rathbones and Investec, who had a combined stake of more than 30%, the threshold which would ordinarily require a bid to be made under Takeover Panel rules, also weighed on the stock.

Prior to the merger’s completion, trust chair Richard Horlick warned investors the combination of the two wealth managers could create an overhang which may lead to forced selling. While the stake has been reduced, this has been minimal and steady, with the latest stock exchange notice saying that the wealth manager had just under 28% as of early November.

With Rathbones’ intentions uncertain, the board held off on buybacks in the third quarter despite the derating of the shares. However, in December when the shares hit a nadir of a 15% discount the board became more active. This activity continued into 2024 with 2.8m shares already purchased, according to stock exchange announcements.

Buybacks along with better performance should support the share price and offer another reason to invest, according to the Investec analysts.

‘When (not if) we next hit choppy waters, we expect NAV gains to be accompanied by a return to a premium rating, which would equate to significant outperformance of risk assets,’ the analysts wrote in a note.

[affemoose] 18/1/2024 10:15

I look at the 5 year chart for this share and see 1 significant rise to 500pence, which has now corrected back down, and this share is the same price as it was in 2021.

Thus the 'rocket up' has only happened once, the rest of the time it's pretty flat.

10 years ago it was trading at 200p. Today it is at 364. That's approx a 7% return per year. Not bad but not inspirational for what they claim to be.

You may be interested in the comment in Master Investor: hxxps://masterinvestor.co.uk/funds-and-investment-trusts/specialist-trust-recommendations-for-2024/

"Another trust operating in the same sector is the £1.6bn BH Macro (LON: BHMG), which has a strong long-term record as a diversifier. Recently however it has really struggled and slipped to a 12% discount, although the Board has rather belatedly started to buy back some of the shares.

The problem is the 28% stake owned by Investec/Rathbones that has turned a strong supporter into an ongoing seller. Numis believe that it may require a corporate action solution to reduce this position that is seen as an overhang by the market."

[rambutan2] 11/1/2024 15:50

Robe7, it’s doing what it has always done and is quite capable of treading water for many months, even years. The reason to hold it is for those times, when volatility hits and the bets it has made pay out. Up the nav goes like a rocket, when all else is struggling. Folks then remember why they once held it, before getting bored and selling. In they pile, the shares go to a premium. And the cycle starts once again…

[robe7] 11/1/2024 15:37

Loosing patience here - NAV not moving in any direction for a while now - will give it a little while longer but !! not sure what's happened it used to be very successful

[eh9] 16/12/2023 09:27

Ft today re hedge funds like bhmg At this point, macro hedge fund managers and other investors who seek to harness broad global economic trends are rubbing their hands with joy. Generally speaking, the past two years or so have featured the big central banks all pulling in the same direction. With the exception of the Bank of Japan, each of them has been seeking to damp down inflation with hefty rises in interest rates.Now they are very clearly at different stages in terms of dialling rates back down, and each is dependent on how economic data releases shape up. Electoral cycles are also not synchronised. With investors unusually closely focused on fiscal policy, that means different major bond markets and currencies are likely to swing around in relation to each other. "As a macro strategist, this is what I dream about," said John Butler, head of macro at Wellington Management in London. "This is the best macro environment I've experienced in 30 years."

[eh9] 16/12/2023 06:08

They seem to bet against macro market consensus so we're positioned for a recession driven by reaction to inflation at beginning of year but of course recession did not happen so no gains were made all year. I presume they now have to flip to a bet on strong recovery to make any money!

[affemoose] 15/12/2023 15:52

I was expecting this share to go up with treasuries prices as interest rates look like 'hold' at worst or 'down' at best - but see precious little evidence of this

[affemoose] 15/12/2023 15:51

This share confuses me tbh. I'm clearly not very smart because I don't understand what their holdings are really.

As soon as I am back in the black I'm out and will go somewhere I do understand.

This is my own fault - you should never invest in anything you don't understand and this is a prime example why!

They hold 'stuff' and do 'stuff' - their treasuries - are they linkers (or equiv) or floating rate treasuries? what exactly do they do with Forex?

Sorry for the moan but if anyone can point me to something in English saying what they do I would appreciate it.

[eh9] 15/12/2023 10:34

Bizzare they have started buy backs without announcing!

[opaldouglas] 14/12/2023 08:50

Bit of a no brainer really, buy your shares at a 10% discount.

[eh9] 14/12/2023 08:08

They started buybacks yesterday did they not?

[eh9] 13/12/2023 16:01

Presumably the overhang will disappear overnight when a transfer to another institution gets announced. Todays rns hints towards this route to overcoming current overhang