Alpha Share Discussion Threads

[ali47fish] 23/4/2024 17:27

liontrust adding

[mrscruff] 23/4/2024 13:27

Are these earnings from this rate in the RNS ultimately be based on the rates of US. If Europe cuts rates first, the European currencies will fall in value against the US. I expect allot of currency volatility ahead for the next two years.

[maddox] 23/4/2024 13:16

You are very welcome Ali - hope to see you again soon - probably at Mello Chiswick in May if not before.

Regards Maddox

[ali47fish] 23/4/2024 09:28

well done my friend maddox

[maddox] 23/4/2024 08:39

Yep, so they are racking up over £6m in interest income per month - whilst the interest rates remain high.

It may be an 'uncontrollable' and a 'by-product' but it is very significant - so good that they are highlighting and reporting on it. This will allow us to account for it separately and set our expectations correctly. I very much welcome this move.

I would add, that their core operating business is also being adversely affected by the current economic environment, also clearly outside of managements' sphere of influence.

[ali47fish] 23/4/2024 08:33

pug- please give an evaluative comment if you can

[pughman] 23/4/2024 07:24

£20m net treasury income received Q1 24, compared to £11.2m Q1 23, which pays for the ongoing £20m buyback.

[spwh100] 22/4/2024 19:07

How odd, I purchased 256 shares for my ISA at 15:38, only they're showing up as sells and I definitely didn't sell something I didn't own.

Makes me wonder if all the the other sells are indeed sells

[mrscruff] 21/4/2024 21:58

Expected pull back last week to continue? Nobody knows for sure but... More noise in the US about no rate cuts due to a strong economy. Any central bank rate cuts will be political and shallow. No need for zero rates. Edit: Phenomenal multiple million pound trades today. This one is special.

[ihatemms] 17/4/2024 15:34

Main market timetable now provided - 2 May 2024.

[mrscruff] 15/4/2024 15:12

Exponential increases often lead to selling and the formation of a share price peak. However, despite this, no one seems tempted to sell. My intention is to selectively choose the best UK companies to buy and hold, alongside JPMorgan’s US Smaller Company Trust (JUSC). With interest rates pushed out due to the absence of a recession, even the first rate cut appears to be more of a political move. We are likely to remain at higher levels for an extended period, potentially benefiting from strong economies. While there is a longer-term risk of recession, I believe the ‘new normal’ involves sustained higher levels due to a strong US and international economy. The investment case remains very strong and I hope to buy on substantial pull backs.

[ihatemms] 09/4/2024 12:53

Even though the spread is 19.60-20.00 the quotes are 19.99 to buy and 20.00 to sell ! Talk about institutional desperation to get hold of your shares pre Main market listing. I just keep topping up because we’re still in the foothills of what this is worth especially compared to Wise group (valued at 10 billion )which continues to rise. This still hasn’t reached its ATH yet of £23.
News flow should be continuous from the company now with the Agm and Main market listing timetable to come and then all the new broker notes to follow (not to mention regular sharebacks to make and trackers to buy).
It’s also the last chance to buy the shares (whilst still on AIM) without having to pay the dreaded stamp duty when they’re fully listed.

[wjccghcc] 08/4/2024 11:08

Well they should go into the FTSE 250 so I guess trackers need to buy.

[maddox] 08/4/2024 10:01

At the very least ALPH's move to the Main Market will provide us with a learning opportunity - it doesn't appear to be a frequent event. I can see the logic, and why it should increase demand for the stock - the question is will it move the share price and if so by how much?

Thoughts and experiences - that anyone wishes to share?

[maddox] 03/4/2024 12:45

Confirmation RNS this morning of the intention to move from AIM to the Main Market in early May.

[ali47fish] 31/3/2024 12:32

your last sentence here is the conc- for me the how and why doesnt matter- you sound better than me at analysing- i am equally positive about it and wish to add before they move to the primary index

[mrscruff] 31/3/2024 10:38

AllyFish no need to be sorry as this view is backed up by years of theory by John Bogle and the rise of passive investing and EMH. To outperform an index is rare and we have to look deeper from the bottom up and top down yet take on risk. There are more knowledgeable posters than me here on the bottom up analysis, I am more experienced and have data on top down macro and also behavioural science. I also look out for what fund managers have been selling and does it tally with the data as that data can and has changed since the selling stopped. I think ALPH was sold down to front run more aggressive rate cuts that are now expected to result in a new normal rate of interest. ALPH is uniquely positioned to benefit from this new narrative alongside the main market one.

[ali47fish] 30/3/2024 17:21

that then begs the question of the worth of what you are stating sorry?

[mrscruff] 30/3/2024 16:22

Alifish, If we all knew what to look for then investing would be a zero sums game.

[ali47fish] 30/3/2024 12:13

philly and mr s this is too complex to understand -can't you give a briefer gist of what we investors nee to pay attention to

[mrscruff] 30/3/2024 10:11

The share scheme seemed over generous and the conditions fairly challenging for regular PI's to understand and buy into. It certainly put me off and I note others in other forums I read but not participate in. Perhaps we should not be invested if we don't fully understand everything but what we do understand is compelling and I happy with the gains made.

On another point I have been buying when JPMorgan trusts had been selling as I understood why they had been selling ahead of falling rates. So I simply bought thinking ahead of them. They stopped selling and buybacks started so I don't believe the buybacks had much to do with the gains.

[philly cheesesteak] 29/3/2024 13:27

How have the buybacks been a headwind? They announced them when shares were trading at £14.80!

Also, just to note that the 2 most recent share scheme from 2022 have the below conditions;

"The gain that an F shareholder could receive is capped through placing a ceiling on the maximum market capitalisation of Alpha of £1,867m. The result of doing so is that the F Shares will be entitled to a pro rata share of the gain in market capitalisation of Alpha between £740m and the market capitalisation ceiling of £1,867m."

"The rate of conversion that the G and H Shares will be regarded as worth, is a pro rata share of the market capitalisation gain of Alpha above a hurdle price of £740m. The gain that a shareholder could receive is capped through placing a ceiling on the maximum market capitalisation of Alpha of £1,867m. The result of doing so is that the G and H Shares will be entitled to a pro rata share of the gain in market capitalisation of Alpha between £740m and the market capitalisation ceiling of £1,867m."

So they don't benefit at all unless the share price is above around £17.20, capped at £43.40. So they is a clear desire to get the share price significantly above current levels

[mrscruff] 29/3/2024 10:34

The results state "Working towards a listing on the Premium Segment of the Main Market in May 2024". This implies May and exact date could be a strong RNS for us. All seems rather soon and without fanfare as this is a stock that has zero investor engagement for now :-)

Hopefully they have collected enough stock for employees before then as the buybacks are not benefiting existing share holders and has been an headwind allowing us to participate in buying cheap stocks this year.

[ihatemms] 27/3/2024 12:25

With the AGM on the 1st May and the full FTSE listing planned for May surely we must be close to getting a timetable for the transfer from AIM to full market listing ? Then with a lot more brokers poring all over the figures that’s when more international interest should perk up (as well as the trackers)