H&t Share Discussion Threads

[ntv] 12/4/2024 08:18

Gold climbing again

[aishah] 10/4/2024 21:34

Buy rated by SCSW in their latest issue at 379p citing profits recovery in every area.

[riverman77] 10/4/2024 21:11

Gold price should be helping.

[wad collector] 10/4/2024 21:03

Sp showing some resilience this week, maybe the worst is behind HAT now? Still a bit in the red myself but looks like a hold to me .

[lord loads of lolly] 28/3/2024 09:23

podgyted - agreed. I guess you could say cost control is another uncertainty, given the imminent National Living Wage increase. Whilst H&T generally pays above this rate, they've already said 2024 salary costs will exceed the rate of inflation.

But traditionally, H&T has been fairly conservatively run with effective cost controls.

Their next update is some time away, but the early signs for retail are promising.

At their recent 2023 FY presentation, we were told retail sales had held up well in January & February (after a disappointing December).

I'm cautiously optimistic H1 2024 figures will be strong and that we'll see an upwards share price re-rate within the next 12 months.

[podgyted] 27/3/2024 21:44

Should be looking quite good here.

Gold is strong, so they can lend more against it and also buy for margin. Pawnbroking will be strong at the moment.

Retail is the only uncertainty.

[tomps2] 18/3/2024 16:22

H&T Group (HAT) FY23 results presentation - March 2024

H&T Group CEO, Chris Gillespie and CFO, Diane Giddy present full year results for the for the twelve months ended 31 December 2023, followed by Q&A.

Watch the video here:

Or listen to the podcast here:

[lord loads of lolly] 18/3/2024 10:04

The Chairman doesn't hold that many shares. However the CEO does.

So I'm not sure you can read too much into that.

Also, the CEO, CFO & Chairman were ALL buyers in spring & summer last year. It turns out their timing was off, as they each paid between 428p & 444p back then.

However, that - to me - suggests an underlying confidence, as well as the temporary December retail downturn coming as a genuine surprise to them. Thankfully, January & March 24's retail sales have been strong to date, so it looks like the tide may have turned.

[interceptor2] 18/3/2024 08:09

It's strange the Chairman purchased 15k shares last June and I can see no RNS since to state he has sold any, with last weeks purchase he should hold 20k shares now?

The CEO holds a decent amount at 125k

[cestnous] 18/3/2024 07:31

So I’ve got more shares than the chairman. A pathetic purchace

[tole] 15/3/2024 06:36

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/small-cap-catch-up-hat-mcb-cost-and-gms/H&T Group (LON:HAT) – Sustained Profitable GrowthMy long-term favourite pawnbroking group has reported for 2023 a 39% improvement in its pre-tax profits at £26.4m (£19.0m), while its Pledge Book was 28% higher at £129m (£101m), producing a 36% uplift in its PB net revenue at £69.5m.The group's balance sheet has stayed strong and its net assets at £177m give a per share value of 403.3p.CEO Chris Gillespie stated that:"The Group has made significant progress in 2023, delivering record profits and strong growth in a challenging environment for both businesses and individuals.Pawnbroking is our core business and is attracting increasing numbers of new customers.Throughout the year, we saw record demand for our pawnbroking service and this has continued into 2024, with January being a new record month for lending."Analyst Gary Greenwood at Shore Capital Markets has a 'fair value' on the group's shares of 515p.He estimates that the current year to end December will see £33.5m profits, 57.2p earnings, triple covering a dividend of 18.5p per share, leaving the group's net asset value at 442.1p per share.This group continues to grow and I continue to rate highly the upward potential for its shares from the current 385p.

[aishah] 13/3/2024 13:24

Price crossed 50d SMA and looks strong imo.

[rimau1] 13/3/2024 11:46

Hitting book value now so that was my target exit price for the tranche bought yesterday morning. Long term position held looking for 4.50 or 8x

[ymaheru] 12/3/2024 14:11

Hiya, isn’t 31% eps increase more than others had forecast or expected?

And, didn’t broker say another 27% coming this year?

That’s all ahead of my expectations.

[wad collector] 12/3/2024 13:11

Not much bad to see in those results. The gold play is an added bonus- with gold prices rising much more consistently than the 2009 peak , looks like more to come. Well timed if you managed to pick any up in the last few weeks.

[tomps2] 12/3/2024 09:30

H&T (HAT) Full Year 2023 webinar

Friday, 15 March, 12:00pm

Chris Gillespie, CEO & Diane Giddy, CFO will present results for the FY23 followed by Q&A.

Register here: [...]

[rimau1] 12/3/2024 08:33

Should be 8x forward earnings so 4.50 looks realistic this year

[aishah] 12/3/2024 08:22

Latest forecasts today FY24: PBT 33.5 +27%; EPS 57.2 +17.5% (p/e 6); divi 5.4%; NAV 403.3. Directors were buying well above 400p last year.
Mkt cap £150m.

[aishah] 12/3/2024 08:12

Added at the open. PBT +39%, EPS +31%, NAV + 8%, Divi +13%.

Outlook

Looking to the year ahead, we will continue to build on the progress achieved in 2023. We believe that demand for our core pawnbroking service will remain high as the ongoing impact of inflation on customers' disposable incomes creates record levels of demand for small sum, short term lending, at a time of severely constricted supply. We are also seeing growing demand from customers who are business owners, seeking finance for working capital against pledged personal assets and this formed part of the rationale for the acquisition of the pledge book of Maxcroft.

Further expansion of our store network remains a focus, although this will always be in a controlled and measured manner. It is likely that between 8 and 12 new stores will be opened in 2024.

[rimau1] 12/3/2024 08:08

Priced for a 2024 profit warning so i have now bought back in. TBV 4.00 so this is a realistic short term target, crucially retail has recovered in the first 2 months of 2024 so all my concerns have been addressed. Yes inflation is a concern but this is essentially a fixed cost business and tailwinds this year are the pledge book growth, gold price and fx. RFX still trades at a premium to book value so there is value here.

[1c3479z] 12/3/2024 07:30

core pawnbroking performing nicely, though consumes capital and business facing NLW increases for many of 1500 employees next month, jewellery buying ought to be doing well as gold price rises, and company derives a benefit from higher gold price overall though this is cyclical.

[ntv] 05/3/2024 08:45

Price of gold has shot up recently so this should help margins if it holds a new level

[lord loads of lolly] 23/2/2024 17:07

riverman77 - I agree to an extent, but think you're being unduly harsh referring to "constant own goals".

The two you highlight - plus piecemeal top-up funding since 2023 - are the main ones that spring to mind. Sure, that's not great, but there's still a LOT the company's doing right. They wouldn't be announcing record annual profits otherwise.

The current storm clouds remind me of the period when H&T was under FCA investigation for its HCSTC loans. All was doom & gloom then, with the share price feeling like it was on a permanent downtrend. I took the view/gamble that any fine (& reputational damage) was likely to be fairly insignificant & short-lived. So I added several times at prices between £3 & just under £2, as the share price continued to nosedive. Not only have I benefitted from the dividends since, I've also made a half-decent return on capital - even allowing for recent corrections.

I'll be doing the same again this time if March's Preliminary Results cause any further significant correction (unless there are any more curved balls of course).

On the issue of RFX v. HAT. Both have their strengths and both have suffered significant share price declines since summer/autumn 2023. So it's not all down to management. There's a change in sector sentiment at play here too. Which I suspect will be fairly short-lived.

As for a potential merger with RFX, I very much doubt that would ever be waved through. Or indeed even contemplated by either party. But you never know!

[riverman77] 23/2/2024 12:58

Good company and very cheap, but very frustrated with these constant own goals which keep knocking the share price. First, the failure to keep brokers updated with the correct forecasts leading to a completely unnecessary profit warning. Now the failure to explain the rationale for this acquisition - presumably there must be some logic behind it, but from reading the RNS alone looks an odd deal, so pretty poor communication. More generally, HAT completely fail to engage with private investors - RFX much stronger on that front. Ideally would like a merger with RFX, with RFX to take over management, although not sure competition authorities would allow this.

[taylor20] 23/2/2024 09:06

Yes the other way to view the purchase is it highlights how undervalued HAT is.

But I'm with zchaka5, the strategy of late does seem a bit erratic.

I guess the actual view from HAT and their lenders is that rates are not going to come down anytime soon. (The Lloyds facility is SONIA + 3.3% - 8.8%).